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- American Vanguard Corporation Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
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drmalaka
95 Comments
A Stockholder, and Merchant, Loses Confidence in eBay
eBay did not care. And why should they care about crappy bidders screwing me, they made money each time I got screwed.
Foot Locker's Achilles Heel
Bottom line is I love this short. I was in a FL in Houston last week, it was empty and that is one of the few cities doing well in our country. The idea that this store can hit yearly numbers is insane to me. But the market is still considering a second half recovery.
The stock is still above where it was before the quarter announcement and to me is still a great short here. To me this is a double whammy, a lousy business to be in and in a weak economy. I am sitting tight and awaiting the next quarter numbers as I seriously doubt they will pre announce bad numbers coming. The company already painted a rosy picture by claiming yearly numbers would be met, seems like they will wait to the last second to admit what reality is.
Global Junk Bond Default Rate Doubles in 5 Months - Moody's
That's funny.
Homebuilders Likely Have Further to Fall
Why does this Ricchio dude think he has the answers? Just because he has been right all along why would we listen to him? Imagine if you were dumb enough to listen to Ackerman about MBIA four months ago when he said they were down but going lower. Just because he had been right for two years on the stock were we supposed to listen to him? I mean those guys on TV were so convincing, honest and well respected by each other. Oh wait, MBIA hit $5 today, oooooops.
Remember in Feb. when those ABk rumors kept creeping up each week and the stock would trade up to $11 or $12 how does $3 sound like today.
Why do we need to keep going through this dance every month. The people who understand the market and have been right keep telling us what will happen and these morons in the press just keep on fighting them and the market listens to the morons, not the guys who have been proven right.
We need to think out the herd. Let the banks and builders who need to just go out of business and lets start the solution instead of just treading water.
Time Warner Cable Chokes Its Customers
So the truth is why should regular internet users subsidize people who watch movies every day on the internet? Granted we are used to this with cable companies, my mom has been paying for ESPN on her basic cable bill for years and never watches it. That is over $3 a month that ESPN charges the cable companies for each subscriber that is shared by all subscribers even though a majority do not use it. Is there a reason my mom should subsidize sports fanatics to the tune of almost $40 a year?
Why is flat pricing any different than gas subsidies. As long as the 10% of heaviest users are bing subsidized on the net they will not limit their usage. I do not like pricing per gig as that is annoying but why not have a three or four tiered structure with different levels of usage.
John Hussman: Do Worse Credit Problems Lie Ahead?
The one thing I do not get is how can a supposed expert like Dick not realize that the loan loss reserves are there for a reason, DUH! But in relation to this article, his hypothesis totally neglects the fact that the higher real reserves are actually a lower percentage of problem loans.
Reggie's Asset Securitization Crisis Analysis Roadmap (to date)
Thanks
Realtors, Prepare to Lose Your 6 Percent
I always thought paying your 6% was like paying the mob a vig. Lets be serious, that percentage is more of a mob racket than a legitimate business.
It will be nice to see real estate brokers take the hit. Their value add to the equation is not anywhere near the vig they charge. And the author is spot on, they do not provide to efficiency in the market, they hurt it.
Plus brokers also had a nice hand in the current housing crisis. How much did they cash in during the last five years?
As the judge says in Caddyshack, "the world needs ditch diggers." I am sure it will take a little while but we will have more ditch diggers available soon.
Citigroup: A Promising Blue Chip
By the analysis that C is cheap based on its historic high, you must be buying ABK and MBI right now as well, look how cheap they are. And what about CFC, that is pretty far of its high.
Liveris bought 1200 shares. What the hell is that? The dude is probably worh gazzillions and he spent an entire $25k on Citi stock. If that is not the biggest sell signal I have ever seen. That is what he spends on his lower end help for the month. Talk about lip service. You probably believe that NObama loves this country becuase he put an American flag lapel pin on the other day.
These 32 Commercial Banks and Thrifts May See the Dung Hit the Fan
Ebuddy, Reggie did not say sell all those stocks, he has more articles and will select the best shorts. Your points are correct, so the answer might be that those are not on the short list.
The first comment is just a stick your head in the sand attitude. Trust the market, they know. First, don't forget the lowlife scumbags you are trusting. Second, how forward looking was the market in Q3 07 when it ran to new highs? What about NASDAQ in March 2000? To blindly follow that is idiotic, at least take a moment to listen. Read what Reggie and others have to say and then decide who you agree with.
There is very little room in these banks for defaults, it is not like they have a gross margin of 50% so a few defaults would mean nothing. Generally speaking, I would figure that losing all the principal on one loan would cancel out the profits of twenty five or thirty loans at least. If they lent out money at 10% interest the interest payments on ten loans of equal value would cover one complete loss. Then you have to factor in that they only make the spread between what they borrow for and they lend out. Add in overhead and costs and I might be underestimating the number of quality loans one complete loss cancels out.
Reggie you are spot on. If a bank holds a high percentage of these potentially zero value loans (and I agree with your hypothesis that a lot of these will be zero) then that bank is going to be in trouble. I love how you are going about this.
All those above who are so positive on this sector, do you really believe that housing will come back by the end of the year or early next? 11 month supply of houses compared to a usual 5.
The Pros and Cons of GameStop
There is no sense in the market these days. With these numbers this stock is getting creamed, while complete garbage retail companies announce horrible news and they trade up. Just old fund managers who are too out of touch and snobby to give gamers respect.
Carbon Offsets Work: Will MSM Ever Get It?
Carbon offsets were created to help make Al Gore "The Goracle" money. Kyoto was set up as a tax on the US by the world and self hating Americans.
Burn it all, global warming is for idiots who are willing to take their scientific advice from a moron who has no education in this subject. Oh, there are some leading scientist on the global warming bandwagon, the same fools who were calling for the next ice age twenty years ago. We do not need Kyoto to kill our economy, we already have all the idiot socialist/progressive/... doing all they can to kill our economy.
Don't believe Paulson: S&L 2.0, the Bank Failure Redux
I am an non believer in inflation for a reason few are talking about, but John Mauldin pointed it out. The amount of money out there is not increasing, banks are lending less. Decreased leverage has a negative effect on money supply. We are confusing increased prices in certain sectors with overall increases in prices.
As Friedman said, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Conversely stated, the price of everything can not go up if the amount of money around does not go up. It is impossible. If there is only $100 out there and item X increases from $50 to $60 dollars, and you need item X like the oil slaves we are, then item Y is going to cost $40. Does not matter what you want to charge for Y, in Philly it is worth $40.
Marty is correct here when he points out housing and wage deflation. I'm into that theory. Right on.
No doubt about it, we are paying more for commodities and energy. Since this is at best a zero sum game (given the current economic climate), if the consumer is spending more on something he has to spend less on something else.
I think the hit here is everywhere else. Retail, autos, housing, banks, tech, travel, and maybe most of all services. I believe the first thing consumers cut down on are services like, house cleaning, salon, lawn care, stuff like that. Then on to things like dining out and vacations.
The American consumer is all about appearances, they will give up their Hummers last. Credit card defaults are going to skyrocket soon. The US consumer can not continue to finance their spending habits, not with rising unemployment and flat wages. This could be a real mess.
The market certainly is saying this is not happening, but I just do not see where the positive news is. I am not a bear. I am someone worried for the future prosperity of this country. That goes even further if we get an Obama to increase all our taxes and create new "green" ones with McCain. How does this market treat a capital gains increase? Oh, that would hurt.
There is potentially a lot of bad stuff out there, it might not happen, but to bury your head in the sand and signal the all clear bell is insane.
The Home Start Numbers Are Not a Positive
Hoping the Housing Crisis Is Over
Look at the permits bounce between '06 and '07. That was the best news I had seen since Vince Vaughn split up with Jennifer Aniston. He was way too good for her.