drmalaka

Ranking Homebuilders by Discount to Book Value

Anyone suggesting that home builders might be a buy is probably expecting the second half turn around in the economy and real estate to start in two weeks. Oh wait, the second half does start in two weeks.

To speak this way in January was one thing, but to still think at the end of June that we are headed for a strong second half in the economy and a stable second half in home builders is just nuts.

BZH ran from $5 to $12 from Jan to May, MTH from $8 to $24 in the same period. Where are they now? Wanting to buy into these beasts now is repeating the same mistakes. 2010 is when housing might bottom.

MTH and PHM have had nice little runs over the past few days and should be topping out soon in my opinion, next stop...new lows.

Homebuilders Likely Have Further to Fall

I don't know, all those guys on TV talking their books tell me that housing has bottomed and should start improving this year. Those guys are real smart, maybe even super geniuses like Wiley Coyote.

Why does this Ricchio dude think he has the answers? Just because he has been right all along why would we listen to him? Imagine if you were dumb enough to listen to Ackerman about MBIA four months ago when he said they were down but going lower. Just because he had been right for two years on the stock were we supposed to listen to him? I mean those guys on TV were so convincing, honest and well respected by each other. Oh wait, MBIA hit $5 today, oooooops.

Remember in Feb. when those ABk rumors kept creeping up each week and the stock would trade up to $11 or $12 how does $3 sound like today.

Why do we need to keep going through this dance every month. The people who understand the market and have been right keep telling us what will happen and these morons in the press just keep on fighting them and the market listens to the morons, not the guys who have been proven right.

We need to think out the herd. Let the banks and builders who need to just go out of business and lets start the solution instead of just treading water.