pelican

Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't

Dang. How many articles are you going to write reminding us you strongly believe the bottom in financials is in? If true, I'll be the first to congratulate you, at least for identifying it, if not calling it prior to it happening. I know investments are an ego-driven business but I think we all get it...you're convinced July 15 was probably the bottom. Great. But contrary to what you wrote, you aren't the only one who thinks so. Barron's does (their second bottom call) among others; plus one or two who wrote articles that were posted on this blog. There's no question you're an intelligent guy and you may be right in your thinking. However, a lot of smart guys have been sucking pond water since last year, in part because they seem too cocksure of their position. When that happens, a disconnect between analysis and great stockpicking can occur. I think everyone agrees- and forgive the Yogi Berra-ism - that the unexpected happens when people least expect it. Witness the 40-50% jump in the major regional banks the last part of July. But many of the bears aren't just saying they want to see improving fundamentals before they invest. They are saying drawing parallels to the early 1990s, for example, is too easy and potentially unwise. I recall people comparing the '87 crash to the '29 crash, and many opted out of the market, some for good. Anyway, I'm not sure the financials have hit THE bottom last month, maybe they have. But seeing how the group rebounded so strongly after dropping 70%+ or so, is it really going out on a limb to say they have?