pelican

Don't Be Fooled by the Dead Cat Bounce

I'd like to see how many bear market rallies of 20%+ occurred during the bear markets of 73-74 and 81-82, not just during the Great Depression. Their are similarities with the Great Depression but there are many differences, so I don't think using it as the yardstick is necessarily appropriate. That said, if the Great Depression represents the worse case scenario, where the market tanked due to the economy (worse than today) and rich valuations (higher than those at 2007's peak), then the current market should bottom before the 35 months it took during the Depression. If it takes 26 months, for example, it would mean the market will bottom at year-end. By the way, the author makes it seems as if there is a lot more bullishness out there now that the market has rallied but I'm not seeing that, at least not on this website.