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    • Fri Oct 31st 10:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Politics Of Oil
      Street -

      Precisely the point if you read the column below the graph ("Better to keep an eye on market fundamentals" et seq.).

      As you can see from the remarks made by User 224899, there' are folks who believe the occupant of the White House somehow determines the course of oil prices.

      There may, in fact, be better correlation between Superbowl wins and oil price trajectories. I haven't run those numbers.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 31st 01:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale
      Mark -

      Have you contacted Lind-Waldock? The larger clearing FCMs (futures commission merchants) have delivery departments; introducing brokers and nonclearing FCMs don't.

      As mentioned in the article, very few futures are settled by delivery, so most commodity representatives haven't had much experience in dealing with physical settlements.

      You should understand, as well, that you're not exactly the kind of customer most commodity reps want. You want to open the account, purchase a single contract, then remove all assets from the account upon delivery. The rep wants a customer who'll trade. You, in essence, have a selling job to do to get the rep to want you as a customer.

      Ask upfront about the costs and fees associated with delivery. They'll vary from firm to firm. The article references the common costs. Costs for small lot delivery will seem high because, of course, the business is geared for WHOLESALE transactions.

      Keep in mind that the U.S. Mint is not obliged to manufacture anything but general circulation coinage. Specie coins minted optionally.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 00:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ethanol's Short-Term Bottom
      The four-cent figure is the current price of an ear of wholesale field corn. It was mentioned as a reference to the linked article in which a wag forecast that Pacific Ethanol's stock price could cheapen to the price of an ear of corn.

      I can only conjecture whether oil companies want refiners' share prices to drop to pennies. I can only say with certainty than one pundit does.

      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 00:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ethanol's Short-Term Bottom
      The board crush is admittedly simplistic, but it's a spread that is at least representational and can be easily followed by retail investors without ready access to local cash market quotes and transportation rates.

      Using the board crush is akin to viewing a sketch rather than a measured drawing: you get a depiction of the scene without having to wade through extraneous detail.

      The weekly ethanol and corn prices, by the way, varies considerably depending upon your vantage point. Since 2006, it's only 45%, though year to date it's 84%.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 18:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Analysts' Forecasting Average (1-for-4) Holds
      Jet fuel is kerosene, not a fuel oil like heating oil or diesel, so its not counted in the distillate fuel category. Jet fuel is indeed down. By 9.2% year over year, in fact.

      As for the crude oil/natural gas spead, you said "Nat. Gas has gone down approximately the same amount from its peak as has crude, just because it is closer means squat."

      If you want to compare oil and gas on a dollar-for-dollar basis, that can't be true.

      In September, the ratio was 15-to-1 in oil's favor. The ratio, as you point oit, now about 10-to-1. That means oil's premium has diminished. And that DOES mean something. Specifically, it means it was profitable to buy natural gas while selling crude over the past couple of months.

      If your statement: "The old BTU generation equation of 6-8 times nat gas puts crude in the $40 to 52 range or some 30% lower than crude's current price." is a forecast, then remaining long gas/short oil would be warranted.

      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 10:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Analysts' Forecasting Average (1-for-4) Holds
      Keep in mind that the oil analysts reference in this report are NOT EIA employees, but representative of sellside (brokerage) firms and research organizations.

      With that in mind, it's probably better to inquire into the credibility of these prognosticators.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 10:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ag Secretary Defends Ethanol
      Yes. The interview was conducted in the first week of Septemeber.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 10:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Liquidity Play a Setup?
      If you stood for delivery in the Dec contract you'd have no problem getting metal. The squeeze potential lies further down the road.

      When you talk about the physical metals market in comparison to COMEX, make sure you pit apples against apples. There's ALWAYS been a difference between retail, small-lot metals transactions through a middleman and warehouse receipt transfers at COMEX-approved warehouses. Those really are different markets.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 10:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Liquidity Play a Setup?
      No recommendation. Just an observation and ther presentation of a potential scenario. As I said, there are a lot of "ifs" in the set-up. We clearly need more Windex
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 21st 13:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Beef on Sale
      Futures are a pure cattle play, but the ETNs also cover hogs. The hog market hasn't yet shown strong signs of a turnaround.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 08:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Chart From Our Anxiety Closet
      OIL is an exchange-traded note that provides LONG exposure to crude. You'd need to SHORT the note for the gold/oil ratio trade.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 11th 10:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Chart From Our Anxiety Closet
      Amplification: Short crude exposure CAN be obtained through other vehicles. The PowerShares DB Short Crude Oil exchange-traded notes (SZO for -100% exposure to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Optimum Yield Oil, DTO for -200% exposure), however, convey credit risk as they are unsecured debentures of Deutsche Bank AG's London branch. The MacroShares portfolios, made of up Treasuries and repos, don't impart such exposure, no do they directly rely upon oil futures.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 10:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Giveaway Oil Market
      But here, were discusssing THIS year's oil price. The year-to-date aveerage price of spot WTI crude is now $112.73/bbl. EIA is essentially saying that oil price action price for the balance of the year must such that the average will fall another 73 cents. If prices, however, stay at the current sub-$90 level, the average price will end up lower. Oddly enough, crude prices must RISE at some point to LOWER the average. Capice?
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 10:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More Off-Base (Way Off-Base) Oil Forecasts
      Not oil price predictions. Not even too high or too low. Just that consensus expectations of production and suppliy are notoriously inaccurate.

      In recent weeks, the best Oil Patch prognostications have been 1-for-4 (oil stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories and refinery utilization).

      The predicitions are made on the eve of the weekly EIA report's release. They're simply not good guideposts for trading.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 14:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More Off-Base (Way Off-Base) Oil Forecasts
      Pautaut -

      If you don't follow the numbers, you also don't follow the trends.

      These numbers aren't isolated one-offs. They're the continuation of a trend that began before Ike was spawned.
      View article »
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