Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- American Vanguard Corporation Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Oplink Communications, Inc. F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Albany Molecular Research, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Alphatec Spine, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Avanex Corporation F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- eHealth, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- MIPS Technologies, Inc. F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Alkermes, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
-
Editors' Picks
-
Most Popular
- Throwing in the Towel on This Market?
- General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?
- Food: Against Self-Sufficiency
- The Fed: Now the World's Largest Private Bank
- Key to the Global Equity Market: Trend and Cycle Analysis of U.S. Retail
- Can a Global Economy Be Managed One Nation at a Time?
- Full list of Editors' Picks »
- Jim Rogers on China »
- Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12 »
- Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor? »
- Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing »
- UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point? »
- The Biggest Problem Detroit's Big Three Face »
- 11 Stocks Selling Below Cash »
- Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001 »
- General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse? »
- The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit »
- Iceland: What It's Like to Live in a World Without Money »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Managing Editor
129 Comments
The Swissie and Gold
There's no representation made here that the Swiss franc is "better" than gold.
Rather, we observe the degree to which a currency is "pegged" to the dollar against its gold-denominated value.
Investors dealing with international assets, including those holding foreign stocks and bonds, or mutual funds holding such assets, are, by default, in the foreign exchange market. Each time they buy an offshore stock or bond, they're selling dollars to buy francs or yen or euro, depending upon the home currency of the target security.
Aren't they entitled to know the value they're obtaining when they make such investments?
To say that the period cited isn't relevant because it's a "consolidation period" smacks of data mining. If we only report data that supports some preconceived notion, we have no credibility as dispassionate observers.
If you'd followed the articles embedded link to "Translating Currencies Through Gold," you would have seen a graph and supporting data on THREE YEARS of currency/gold valuations.
Oil Inventories Report Full of Surprises
This article is part of a weekly series of reports on oil and fuel inventories run on Hard Assets Investor (HardAssetsInvestor.com)
There WERE comments five weeks ago. They were here: "Crude Oil Flips to Contango" (www.hardassetsinvestor...) and here: seekingalpha.com/artic..., as well as in "Crude Oil Dances To Contango," (seekingalpha.com/artic...).
There's more reportage than analysis in these rweekly eports. Intentionally.
On top of the numbers presented in the Energy Department status reports, HAI's articles also cite consensus forecasts from outside analysts, updates on crack spreads/refiniing margins and the values of related ETFs.
The argument about accuracy, seems to me, a straw man.
What "information"... is lacking from this report on oil inventories?
Tracking Crack Spreads
It depends on how "short" the "short" in your term is.
And whether or not you can go "short." Seasonally, margins are softening now. If you're especially aggressive--and some might say, foolish--you could sell the independents now.
Or you could wait for heating oil season when retooling and maintenance operations curb production (look for that 5% margin differential ) to buy the stocks.
Tracking Crack Spreads
maximax - Thanks for yours as well.
Your point's well-taken. Coking spreads take into account more than just two products on the output side, namely WTS, dated Brent and No. 6 fuel oil.
Coking operations, too, are multiplying.
The point of the article, however, was to offer a basic model for those unfamiliar with refinery operations in terms that they've likely encountered in investment articles.
Crack spreads are discussed in investment terms more often than coking spreads.
Investors, too, are much more likely to grab the two crack spread output prices from retail sources than the less transparent coking components.
There are a limited set of products, too, for retail investors to use (ETFs) to capture refining margins.
In a nutshell, this article wasn't destined for professional hedgers or industry insiders. Rather, it's an overview of a concept often encountered by, but seldom adequately explained to, retail investors.
Tracking Crack Spreads
Not the TWO margins. The DIFFERENCE between the two margins.
One tracks the spread between the input price and the prices of the outputs (the apprarent refining margin), the other (gross profit margin, basis the cost of goods sold) the profit represented by the per-barrel crack against the sale prices of the outputs. Gross and grosser, you might say.
PPI: the Numbers behind the Numbers
Apparently, snarkiness doesn't translate well on the page.
I, personally, DON'T feel reassured by the core numbers. I haven't yet found a way to live without food and energy.
The Dollar, Inflation and You
How would your new currency idea work?
Play Your Short Game in Gold
COMEX June gold had last settled at $894.50 when you wrote your comment. Three trading sessions later, the contract settled at $869.20.
Some might consider a $2,530 return a nice short. At exchange minimum margins, that's a 59% gain.
Crude Report Stumps Analysts
EXACTLY! Now you know why we run the crack spread figures on Hard Assets Investor (HardAssetsInvestor.com) every week. If investors would look at the oil business as a business, they can gain insight into pricing.
Crude Report Stumps Analysts
Astute observation about the refinery utilization rate. The notion that refiners expect a slackening of demand, or more particularly, a surfeit of supply, is bolstered by the shrinking backwardation and emergence of a contango in NYMEX spreads.
Thanks for your comment.
Hedging Gold's Volatility
Help me out with your last comment, though. Subscribe? Subscribe to what?
Crude Oil Dances the Contango
Not really. Producers are capacity-constained. They can only sell their up to their production levels. The supply's in the back months. but demand from anxious buyers is concentrated in the nearby deliveries. Bid up the front, sell the deferred to sufficient size and--bingo--you have backwardation.
You also have spread traders taking both ends of the term structure on. Bull spreaders buy the near-term contract against a sale of a back-month delivery. For them, absolute price levels aren't so important. What counts is the size of the price differential. If the spread (nearby price minus the deferred price) becomes more pronouced becaue the front month rises more (or falls less)
than the back month, the spreader profits.
You can see the oil market's backwardation overlaid on top of oil inventories in the HardAssetsInvestor.com article "More Off-Base Oil Predictions" at www.hardassetsinvestor....
52-to-1 Just Right for Gold/Silver Ratio?
A Bumper Crop of Agricultural Products
Enhanced Oil Returns
The comparison between USO and USL--as both are ETFs--is direct. Thy're both subject to the same frictional costs. An ETN, as a structured debt instrument, isn't.