Managing Editor

Consumers Buy Into Disinflation

Let's not forget timing. The real time inflation indicator is just that: it takes the measure of the dollar on a DAILY basis.

The Bureau of Engraving and Printing hasn't stepped up the minting of new currency--YET. What happens first is an increase in the issuance of Treasury bills, notes and bonds. Increased Federal Reserve Note production follows as tranches of bills and notes are redeemed.

The indicator can head downward during the current disinflationary phase before turning north when the dollar's reinflated.



On Nov 14 05:40 PM Consider_this wrote:

> Response to Hervert Hoover,
>
> Inflation of prices of items (not produced in the country) without
> corresponding increase in *WAGES* of people is actually deflationary.
>
>
> It's not hard to envision why if wages don't have inflation, price
> inflation ends up deflationary overall.
>
> In the end, true inflationary spiral can happen only if WAGE is also
> inflating.
>
> My problem is that with global arbitration of wages; and production
> capacity of GOODS and ENERGY is outside of the country; and outsourcing
> controlling wage increase domestically; the only way you can get
> into an inflationary spiral within the USA; is if USD complete depegs
> with the rest of the world and goes into a downward spiral.
>
> However, that kind of inflation-attempt would happen with a high
> price: Cutoff of foreign goods and energy (too expensive); Cutoff
> of govt funding; Removal of USD as a reserve currency.
>
> Because we will lose (reasonably priced) energy and foreign goods,
> whether the economy will end up collapsing completely, thereby skipping
> wage increase (to increase wage, you need to have functioning economy
> and jobs), or be able to go into an inflation period, is unclear.
>
>
> This is the part that inflation scenario arguments that I cannot
> find. In pre-globalization days, it is possible to have Germany style
> chaos; In modern integrated era, WHAT IS THE MECHANISM to achieve
> overall wage gain?

Insights from a Derivatives Salesman

There ARE legitimate and necessary uses of derivatives. Futures, for example, are derivatives that provide commercial producers and users a means to hedge their needs and, in the end, reduce prices and volatility for consumers.

Could PowerShares DB Commodity Index's Base Be a Launching Pad?

Ethanol is still subsidized, so demand's effect is somewhat muted. The corn-ethanol crush has shown some signs of stabilizing after a long, sickening plunge.

Corn acreage competes with soybeans, so supplies will be influenced by producers' planting intentions. Naturally, the crop yielding the higher profit margin will be favored.


On Nov 25 11:13 PM thegreatyakk wrote:

> Around my home, the price of regular unleaded has fallen beneath
> the price of E85 ethanol, I assume this is happening in many other
> places. If gas stays low (lower than ethanol) for a prolonged period
> of time, will this create a large glut in corn inventories as ethanol
> becomes unpractical? Is this already priced into agricultural commodities?

Ethanol's Short-Term Bottom

The HAI weekly podcast (www.hardassetsinvestor...) entitled "Gold, Oil and Ethanol" has the answer.

VeraSun’s (VSE) problems arose, in part, it hedged its feedstock corn near the top of the market.The long-term forward contracts locked in what turned out to be higher-than-market prices. Meantime, VeraSun’s unfettered competitors could buy their corn more cheaply. That left VeraSun's hopes riding on high oil prices (ethanol bids firm up in a tight oil market). The recession, however, knocked the wind out of the petroleum complex and the accompanying credit crunch limited the company’s ability to finance its working capital needs.


On Oct 30 09:55 AM ESQ118 wrote:

> vse bankruptcy immenient... why is that?

Golden Opportunities?

It's important to look at commercial NET interest in a commodity to properly ascertain hedge sentiment.

For gold, net shorts topped out as prices reached their spring peak. Sellers, thus, locked in the market's highest prices through futures. Commercial net short interest has since been lightened to a level not seen in years,


On Nov 03 04:31 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:

> If commercial open interest is declining then another upleg is about
> to start shortly. Maybe it won't be the onset of the "big one" but
> prices are very likely to move higher from here.
>
> If commercials are reducing their net positions it means that the
> current prices are too low. They will be much more likely to wait
> for another rally in price back to 'realistic' levels before taking
> any more positions on the short side for future delivery.
>
> The commercials aren't stupid. They close out their short positions
> when prices get "too low" and re-establish them when prices are "too
> high". It's their business to know what they're doing. When they
> all do the same thing, it's telling you something (or it ought to
> be).
>
> Of course pinpoint timing is another story. Commercial Open interest
> figures will tell you which way the big boys are leaning though.
> Keep your eyes open.

Gold Stocks Rebound

Rebound? Yes, Paultaut, the rebound that caused the overextended GLD/GDX ratio to drop so precipitously.

Note the cautionary tone that was sounded in the piece : "...investors shouldn't forget that gold mining issues are still highly correlated to bullion. As gold goes, so goes - more or less - mining shares. The correlation of daily price returns between GDX and GLD, in fact, stands at 73%, even after counting the seemingly disparate performance records this year."




On Nov 06 05:07 PM paultaut wrote:

> Looks like gold is on its way to the low to mid $600 range, this
> appears to coincide with the last cautionary statement:
> .... have growth and can fund that growth ...
>
> What rebound? The Bear market bounce, is that what you are talking
> about?

Gold 1, Oil Analysts 0

The relationship, I'm afraid, cannot be annuled. Goild and oil are wed for life. Bottoming in the gold/oil ratio, in fact, is a herald of impending economic slowdowns.

The last five US recessions followed 20 to 30 percent declines in the gold/oil ratio from then-recent highs. The current market got followers of the ratio particularly nervous. The ratio nearly 50% from its February 2007 high to a trough at 6.4-to-1. If nosedives in the ratio are indeed predictive, the recession forecast then would figure to be a real whopper.

And why would a dip in the ratio predict bad times to come? Put simply, rising oil prices – relative to a monetary constant like gold -- slows industrial and consumer demand, choking off economic growth.




On Nov 13 08:10 PM The hand wrote:

> maybe it is time for gold to leave its relationship with oil. this
> marriage should annulled as they have little in common except a coincidental
> relationship that has little love.
>
>

Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale

Mark -

It's not just proof set gold coins that are considered "numismatic items" under 31 USC 5112 which, in pertinent part, states:

(q) Gold Bullion Coins.

(1) In general.— ...the Secretary shall commence striking and issuing for sale such number of $50 gold bullion and proof coins as the Secretary may determine to be appropriate, in such quantities, as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe ...

(7) Treatment as numismatic items.— For purposes of section [2] 5134 and 5136, all coins minted under this subsection shall be considered to be numismatic items.

I can't presume to get inside Secretary Paulson's head.

Suffice to say that the Secretary is constrained in obtaining gold for coin making. He must first obtain bullion only from domestic, not worldwide, sources produced within 1 year of the month in which it was mined, but pay no more than the average world price.

Then he must direct the bullion to be alloyed to exacting standards for blanking, recut dies and schedule minting at the sole venue permitted for gold coin production.

All that takes time.

Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale

Rumpole -

Option on gold futures are just that: options on FUTURES, not physical metal. The exercise of these options results in the "delivery" of futures into the holder's account (long futures if a call is exercised, short futures if a put is exercised).

Upon exercise of a call, you'd then have to await receipt of a delivery notice to acquire actual metal as outlined in the article.

Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale

Think again, Mark -

Gold coins are deemed "numismatic items" under the controlling section of the USC (Title 31, Section 5111) which states:

The Secretary of the Treasury—

(1) shall mint and issue coins described in section 5112 of this title in amounts the Secretary decides are necessary to meet the needs of the United States;

(2) may prepare national medal dies and strike national and other medals if it does not interfere with regular minting operations but may not prepare private medal dies;

(3) MAY [emphasis added] prepare and distribute numismatic items; and

(4) may mint coins for a foreign country if the minting does not interfere with regular minting operations, and shall prescribe a charge for minting the foreign coins equal to the cost of the minting (including labor, materials, and the use of machinery).

The section you cite merely prescribes the conditions under which the coins must be minted and distributed IF the Treasury Secretary deems their production is in the interest of the United States.

The Politics Of Oil

Street -

Precisely the point if you read the column below the graph ("Better to keep an eye on market fundamentals" et seq.).

As you can see from the remarks made by User 224899, there' are folks who believe the occupant of the White House somehow determines the course of oil prices.

There may, in fact, be better correlation between Superbowl wins and oil price trajectories. I haven't run those numbers.

Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale

Mark -

Have you contacted Lind-Waldock? The larger clearing FCMs (futures commission merchants) have delivery departments; introducing brokers and nonclearing FCMs don't.

As mentioned in the article, very few futures are settled by delivery, so most commodity representatives haven't had much experience in dealing with physical settlements.

You should understand, as well, that you're not exactly the kind of customer most commodity reps want. You want to open the account, purchase a single contract, then remove all assets from the account upon delivery. The rep wants a customer who'll trade. You, in essence, have a selling job to do to get the rep to want you as a customer.

Ask upfront about the costs and fees associated with delivery. They'll vary from firm to firm. The article references the common costs. Costs for small lot delivery will seem high because, of course, the business is geared for WHOLESALE transactions.

Keep in mind that the U.S. Mint is not obliged to manufacture anything but general circulation coinage. Specie coins minted optionally.

Ethanol's Short-Term Bottom

The board crush is admittedly simplistic, but it's a spread that is at least representational and can be easily followed by retail investors without ready access to local cash market quotes and transportation rates.

Using the board crush is akin to viewing a sketch rather than a measured drawing: you get a depiction of the scene without having to wade through extraneous detail.

The weekly ethanol and corn prices, by the way, varies considerably depending upon your vantage point. Since 2006, it's only 45%, though year to date it's 84%.

Oil Analysts' Forecasting Average (1-for-4) Holds

Jet fuel is kerosene, not a fuel oil like heating oil or diesel, so its not counted in the distillate fuel category. Jet fuel is indeed down. By 9.2% year over year, in fact.

As for the crude oil/natural gas spead, you said "Nat. Gas has gone down approximately the same amount from its peak as has crude, just because it is closer means squat."

If you want to compare oil and gas on a dollar-for-dollar basis, that can't be true.

In September, the ratio was 15-to-1 in oil's favor. The ratio, as you point oit, now about 10-to-1. That means oil's premium has diminished. And that DOES mean something. Specifically, it means it was profitable to buy natural gas while selling crude over the past couple of months.

If your statement: "The old BTU generation equation of 6-8 times nat gas puts crude in the $40 to 52 range or some 30% lower than crude's current price." is a forecast, then remaining long gas/short oil would be warranted.

A Chart From Our Anxiety Closet

OIL is an exchange-traded note that provides LONG exposure to crude. You'd need to SHORT the note for the gold/oil ratio trade.