old fogey

Investing in Farmland: Considering Schober's Article

When investing in "farmland" one is investing in the farmer rather than just the land. Farmland of the past had often been sold off for development.

Currently, (small) farmers are failing due to lack of finance. I have been a profitable "investor" 12 years, but my greatest satisfaction came from barely breaking even working a ten acre spread.

Careing for animals, and raising vegatables puts one in tune with the seasons.
Although demanding of great energy, so too then is the reward of health and accomplishment greater than money.

Is Gartman Right About Shorting the Dow and Gold?

Someone can not read, either Keith McCullough or me. Gartman said gold is in a long term uptrend, but very expensive as compared to grains; hence the statement "long grains, short gold". That is my recollection of "Garty". Keith is out of context or incomplete in his "short gold" comment. Maybe he should read Gartman every day?

Is Gold on a Deflationary Death Watch?

Hmmm, well first tight credit ... no loans, businesses fail, no work, prices drop on unnecessary goods, more business failure, pipelines of goods empty, farmers cannot borrow seed money, food becomes scarce, prices rise, more money directed at subsistence, more business failure, more pipelines empty, goods become scarce or non existent causing increase per demand. Inflation increases. Black markets appear also.

Gold at 200 buys 20k houses for 100oz ... today 100oz at 900 buys same house for 90k ... little change >>> the point is gold is a universal money, convert-able to any currency at a rate depending on strength (trust) of the conversion currency. This is why it takes less euros per Oz. than dollars per Oz.

Gold Is Not Money

Gold may or may not be called money, depending on who is speaking. Having said that, one can exchange it for any currency at rates compareable to one currency to another (currency pairs). Slight variations may provide arbitrage.

How Does the Financial Crisis Affect the Peak Oil Thesis?

Hmmm, well, about 17 days is an election.
The need for cheap gasoline to encourage consumers to spend is coming about; as a hoped for market rally is needed to dispel fear.

The demand for oil is not one half of what it was; and yes speculation was a part of the highs.
I really wonder how much oil is coming out of our federal reserves as a means of driving prices down?

Two and a half more weeks of low oil is expected, however January new president prices will be higher in my opinion.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You

More on the Fannie/Freddie Heist

Dollar death spiral will end the Federal Reserve banking system, causing pain to both rich and poor alike. Putting off the inevitable will just expand the tenacles of despair.

Credit and non payment therof consumes more than just the profits of a transaction; it usurps the underlieing capital.

The social welfare system will collapse as well.
People will have to work for sustenance ... COD will return to the market place .... the form of cash will change ... barter and black or underground are already beginning to flourish.
Free markets will always exist, even if they be called black.

The earth has not unlimited resources for an unlimited population.
Earth population may diminish, reducing the consumption of resources, a very bleak picture; the rebalancing act.

Return of the 'Super Dollar'?

Despite my moniker, I have only been in the markets for about twelve years. I have run a manufacturing plant that started out with an old $300 lathe. The plant was closed after forty six years due to my retirement. There is your thumbnail bio.

The productivity numbers are just plain BS! Micro productivity is pieces per man, whereas macro productivity is per nation. To be productive requires a product, something tangible. Selling more clothes, cars, drugs, or any product or service, (in and of it self) with fewer employees is not a productive increase.
Commodities i.e. agri, mineral, energy, metals mined, etc. are products, that are tangible.
Services are not products, and technolgy that replaces or enhances labor output often reduces payroll, but not necessarily the cost of goods or services.

Printing more dollars wether for bailout or whatever (without true productivity basis), will increase the cost of both goods and services in the country of fiat origin. The term is inflation. Deflation from lack of money (unemployment, exhausted savings, credit limits) is held at bay only until the printing stops. Meanwhile the standard of living drops for the majority then we have deflation.

Ultimately, even in the heyday of Rome, an ounce of gold would purchase a toga, sash, sandals and a wreath for the head. Today an ounce of gold still buys a suit, shoes, belt and hat of reasonable quality.

Gold price may rise or fall, but it is convertable to almost any fiat; and therefore is a universal currency storehouse, i.e a suit of clothes in any land.
Arbitrage may affect quality of the outfit, and that is at the hand of the exchanger.

I agree about holding some gold but not the author's comments about productivity and deflation. I wonder if he ever really produced anything but words.

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Looks like it has already been said!

Rick Rule: Market Malaise Signals Opportunity in Miners

Yes, I remember Rick Rule who, in the late 90"s said gold was a relic commodity and would never be anything else. I also see his 1974 start date, but he does not tell you about his stint at a brokerage that he helped to fail into bankruptcy. I will be honest, I just could not read his interview, and believe him. Buy low , sell high, own companies with surprises coming ..... Surprises go both ways and knowing in advance what news is coming is not a surprise to the insider. Rick's "nibble-gobble" rule is about the same as saying, "hurry and catch a falling knife". Rick has been in the business long enough to know a broker buys shares and sells them for more to an ever renewing client base. Maybe he can help the readers gain wealth?

What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?

Ok after the applause, you need someone to holler at so here I am.

We know that energy, commodities and precious metals all go up and down and that is normal. What I see is a lot of noise as a disguise for the perilous condition created by bankers and hedge funds.

My gosh up 750 points in 3-4 days on continuing bad news.
C'mon folks this is earnings season, with banking failures in an election year .... that offers socialism or fascism, the loss of the constitution and enslavement via inflation and future taxation.

Paint: everything is beautiful

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

All charts (2 pages) @ 10 am, showing.

Einhorn vs. Lehman: Lehman Will Lose

About Einhorn, I know nothing. The Bankers I talked to say the Fed will bail themselves (bankers) out.
I asked what if all the bankers show up at once .... they answered we are hoping, hoping, HOPING it does not happen.
Derivative exposure was pointed out (at first denied)...I asked why should I put my money here .... they had no answer.

GE May Spin Appliances Unit, Not Sell It

My opinion of GE is very poor. GE started out with post war (WW2) vigor, supplying the pent up demand market of new home owning baby boomers. Products started as of military quality, but were soon trimmed of materials and quality as a profit margin increaser.
Advertising costs of the great new communicator (TV) created new sales and expenses. Touted as a better product of latest enginerring it was priced first higher, then just above mid range as quality dropped and demand grew.
Financing I believe became a greater product center than the goods themselves.

Perhaps I am just a disgruntled person of a manufacturing background, that had too many GE products fail prematurely.
By mid sixties, I was weaned never to buy GE again. The quality and value was just not there, and I consider that an ongoing management problem. They may have made stockholders money, but it was on the backs of the consumer.
Sorry about the rant, but I am entitled as being just an old fogey.