old fogey

Is Gartman Right About Shorting the Dow and Gold?

Someone can not read, either Keith McCullough or me. Gartman said gold is in a long term uptrend, but very expensive as compared to grains; hence the statement "long grains, short gold". That is my recollection of "Garty". Keith is out of context or incomplete in his "short gold" comment. Maybe he should read Gartman every day?

Is Gold on a Deflationary Death Watch?

Hmmm, well first tight credit ... no loans, businesses fail, no work, prices drop on unnecessary goods, more business failure, pipelines of goods empty, farmers cannot borrow seed money, food becomes scarce, prices rise, more money directed at subsistence, more business failure, more pipelines empty, goods become scarce or non existent causing increase per demand. Inflation increases. Black markets appear also.

Gold at 200 buys 20k houses for 100oz ... today 100oz at 900 buys same house for 90k ... little change >>> the point is gold is a universal money, convert-able to any currency at a rate depending on strength (trust) of the conversion currency. This is why it takes less euros per Oz. than dollars per Oz.

Gold Is Not Money

Gold may or may not be called money, depending on who is speaking. Having said that, one can exchange it for any currency at rates compareable to one currency to another (currency pairs). Slight variations may provide arbitrage.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You

Return of the 'Super Dollar'?

Despite my moniker, I have only been in the markets for about twelve years. I have run a manufacturing plant that started out with an old $300 lathe. The plant was closed after forty six years due to my retirement. There is your thumbnail bio.

The productivity numbers are just plain BS! Micro productivity is pieces per man, whereas macro productivity is per nation. To be productive requires a product, something tangible. Selling more clothes, cars, drugs, or any product or service, (in and of it self) with fewer employees is not a productive increase.
Commodities i.e. agri, mineral, energy, metals mined, etc. are products, that are tangible.
Services are not products, and technolgy that replaces or enhances labor output often reduces payroll, but not necessarily the cost of goods or services.

Printing more dollars wether for bailout or whatever (without true productivity basis), will increase the cost of both goods and services in the country of fiat origin. The term is inflation. Deflation from lack of money (unemployment, exhausted savings, credit limits) is held at bay only until the printing stops. Meanwhile the standard of living drops for the majority then we have deflation.

Ultimately, even in the heyday of Rome, an ounce of gold would purchase a toga, sash, sandals and a wreath for the head. Today an ounce of gold still buys a suit, shoes, belt and hat of reasonable quality.

Gold price may rise or fall, but it is convertable to almost any fiat; and therefore is a universal currency storehouse, i.e a suit of clothes in any land.
Arbitrage may affect quality of the outfit, and that is at the hand of the exchanger.

I agree about holding some gold but not the author's comments about productivity and deflation. I wonder if he ever really produced anything but words.

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Looks like it has already been said!

What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?

Ok after the applause, you need someone to holler at so here I am.

We know that energy, commodities and precious metals all go up and down and that is normal. What I see is a lot of noise as a disguise for the perilous condition created by bankers and hedge funds.

My gosh up 750 points in 3-4 days on continuing bad news.
C'mon folks this is earnings season, with banking failures in an election year .... that offers socialism or fascism, the loss of the constitution and enslavement via inflation and future taxation.

Paint: everything is beautiful

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

All charts (2 pages) @ 10 am, showing.

Only Yen and Aussie Dollar Escape New Gold Highs

The price of gold does not change, only the percieved value of the currency traded for it changes. This creates the arbitrage of currency pairs. imo