pepster

Fed's Latest Move Means Low Profit, High Risk for Banks

JasonC said:

"There isn't a single category of loans outside of the original subprime mortgage area (already written off to zero, long since) where rates on the loans don't cover the loan losses and to spare."

I disagree. There will be MASSIVE losses on Alt-A loans starting in 2009.

The Fed Is on a Roll

If you succeed in trading in your mortgages for treasuries, be sure to let me know. I've got mortgages, auto loans, student loans, credit card debt, HELOCs and an old kitchen sink I'd like to trade in myself.

Consumers Shouldn't Be So Gloomy

No, the consumer is not giving a disproportionate weight to gas. Joe Average buys gas and food everyday but buys closing only every now and then, so gas and food should definitely be given more weight.

Lowe's Profit Drop Is Not That Bad

Also disagree. Upgrading one's home during the housing boom allowed one to sell for more, but how does upgrading add value when housing prices keep on falling? I'm in the camp that thinks housing won't turn for another 2-3 years minimum, so I'm staying far away from Lowe's, HD, etc.

China's Inflation Could End the Commodity Boom

Higher yuan --> more expensive Chinese-made products in the US.

More expensive Chinese-made products in the US --> less US demand, esp. with high food and gas prices.

Less US demand --> possibly less goods manufactured in China (if Europe and/or other markets can't pick up the export slack) and by extension a drop in commodities.

I think this is the scenario the author might be trying to present, although both Michael Smith and Eric Hart make logical arguments for the opposite case.

No Sign of a Credit Crunch Outside of Real Estate

Totally agree with bylo. The author states that it's still easy to get credit. I have no doubt this is true for individuals and businesses who already have lots of assets (like the Willamette Sailing Club, I'm sure), but what about the rest of us who don't have the same amount of assets?

Wells Fargo Seeking Fed Shotgun Marriage

After watching what happened with JPM and BS, I too have been thinking that Wells Fargo might engage in a Fed-assisted buyout of WaMu should things at WaMu go downhill. Here are some other thoughts on this possibility:

1) Both Wells Fargo and WaMu have a large presence in California. Given this overlap, is WaMu really a good fit for Wells Fargo? Granted, there might be other assets at WaMu (a contrarian play on MBS's a la BofA's purchase of Countrywide perhaps?) that might attract Wells Fargo.

2) Thinking further down the line. . .let's say Wells Fargo does indeed buy out a teetering WaMu with assistance from the Fed. What happens if another large bank (Goldman?) starts having trouble? Now that JPM and possibly Wells Fargo are out of the way, how many other banks are out there that have strong enough balance sheets to take on other troubled banks? I don't know the answer to this, but probably not many.

Bill Gross Calls for More Bailouts, Profits from Thornburg's Misfortune

Bill Gross is quoted as saying, "The Fed needs in effect to buy the mortgage market and not to basically lend on it," but my question is this: where would the money come from? If our govt does in fact do a massive bailout, wouldn't that mean massive, massive inflation?

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

I second oldie383's comment - you're putting your money where your mouth is, and that is admirable, especially like this. In response to Ed Steedman's comment, "A quality firm with very high performing AAA mortgage assets. . ." - I myself no longer trust ratings like these. For example, if Ambac and MBIA can still maintain AAA status when it seems like they no longer deserve it, then I am very leery about any and all other ratings Moodys et al. puts out there. It is for this reason that I have not invested in TMA as others have, although I have also been tempted to.

The AMBAC Bailout Plan is Really About Banks Saving Their Own AAAsses

Love the forty cents comment too! And the title!

One of the best articles I've read recently on this topic. Great, well-articulated article with a sharp sense of humor. My compliments.

As for the actual subject at hand, the banks' supposed "bailout" of Ambac that seems to be coming, here's my thought: If banks were not willing to commit precious capital to buy auction rate securities issued by museums, NYC Port Authority, etc., which are by all accounts pretty safe, but instead intend to deploy their capital to prop up monolines such as Ambac, a seemingly much riskier investment, what does this indicate? The only reason I can come up with is that banks must be holding way more monoline-insured bonds than they are acknowledging. This cannot be good, and for me adds fuel to the idea that banks have not fully disclosed all their problems . I smell a lot more write-downs coming. . .

On a different note,