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- American Vanguard Corporation Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
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9 Comments
The Fed Is on a Roll
Consumers Shouldn't Be So Gloomy
Lowe's Profit Drop Is Not That Bad
China's Inflation Could End the Commodity Boom
More expensive Chinese-made products in the US --> less US demand, esp. with high food and gas prices.
Less US demand --> possibly less goods manufactured in China (if Europe and/or other markets can't pick up the export slack) and by extension a drop in commodities.
I think this is the scenario the author might be trying to present, although both Michael Smith and Eric Hart make logical arguments for the opposite case.
No Sign of a Credit Crunch Outside of Real Estate
Wells Fargo Seeking Fed Shotgun Marriage
1) Both Wells Fargo and WaMu have a large presence in California. Given this overlap, is WaMu really a good fit for Wells Fargo? Granted, there might be other assets at WaMu (a contrarian play on MBS's a la BofA's purchase of Countrywide perhaps?) that might attract Wells Fargo.
2) Thinking further down the line. . .let's say Wells Fargo does indeed buy out a teetering WaMu with assistance from the Fed. What happens if another large bank (Goldman?) starts having trouble? Now that JPM and possibly Wells Fargo are out of the way, how many other banks are out there that have strong enough balance sheets to take on other troubled banks? I don't know the answer to this, but probably not many.
Bill Gross Calls for More Bailouts, Profits from Thornburg's Misfortune
Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash
The AMBAC Bailout Plan is Really About Banks Saving Their Own AAAsses
One of the best articles I've read recently on this topic. Great, well-articulated article with a sharp sense of humor. My compliments.
As for the actual subject at hand, the banks' supposed "bailout" of Ambac that seems to be coming, here's my thought: If banks were not willing to commit precious capital to buy auction rate securities issued by museums, NYC Port Authority, etc., which are by all accounts pretty safe, but instead intend to deploy their capital to prop up monolines such as Ambac, a seemingly much riskier investment, what does this indicate? The only reason I can come up with is that banks must be holding way more monoline-insured bonds than they are acknowledging. This cannot be good, and for me adds fuel to the idea that banks have not fully disclosed all their problems . I smell a lot more write-downs coming. . .
On a different note,