nosivad's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155366/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/79821-td-newcrest-teck-cominco-is-undervalued?source=feed#comment-180352 180352 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 10:56:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63617-short-idea-terra-nitrogen?source=feed#comment-118450 118450
Several major points: First the ZERO debt sets it apart from any competition. Secondly, the ROE was reported as 98.08 for some time. One knows that would change...last week it did and is now reported as 117.2. That puts it in a different universe. The 100% production coming from one place is not to be ignored...I assume they have insurance, but profit would still take a hit. I assume Natural Gas will fluctuate and may go up, but as with any business if costs rise one raises prices. With no debt TNH can probably suck it up a little but I don't know why they should. I see no reason why margins have to fall. Their one product, nitrogen, is definitely related to the commodity world and its cycles. Corn may be at a high, as may be wheat or even soy, but the world is short food and this puts a prettyhigh bottom on the supply/demand equation. I doubt if Canada, Australia, Argentina, Brazil and/or The Ukraine can increase production enough to drastically alter the worldwide supply/demand situation.

My guestimate as to this years earnings is $16.48 and I note that jonnoarmo puts it at $16.35. To put it as the annal retentive wouldn't like to hear, that's close enough for government work. At the current P/E, that would value the stock at over $250. I certainly wouldn't want to be shorting it. Unless, as my pappy, from the mining camps of Montana might crudely say, "you want to lose your hat, ass and overcoat".

Gringito
QJ Associates
Gringito]]> Sun, 24 Feb 2008 17:25:31 -0500
Several major points: First the ZERO debt sets it apart from any competition. Secondly, the ROE was reported as 98.08 for some time. One knows that would change...last week it did and is now reported as 117.2. That puts it in a different universe. The 100% production coming from one place is not to be ignored...I assume they have insurance, but profit would still take a hit. I assume Natural Gas will fluctuate and may go up, but as with any business if costs rise one raises prices. With no debt TNH can probably suck it up a little but I don't know why they should. I see no reason why margins have to fall. Their one product, nitrogen, is definitely related to the commodity world and its cycles. Corn may be at a high, as may be wheat or even soy, but the world is short food and this puts a prettyhigh bottom on the supply/demand equation. I doubt if Canada, Australia, Argentina, Brazil and/or The Ukraine can increase production enough to drastically alter the worldwide supply/demand situation.

My guestimate as to this years earnings is $16.48 and I note that jonnoarmo puts it at $16.35. To put it as the annal retentive wouldn't like to hear, that's close enough for government work. At the current P/E, that would value the stock at over $250. I certainly wouldn't want to be shorting it. Unless, as my pappy, from the mining camps of Montana might crudely say, "you want to lose your hat, ass and overcoat".

Gringito
QJ Associates
Gringito]]>