JREB777

Moody’s Sees Further Decline in U.S. Commercial Real Estate

These are all backward looking indicators. By the time you see them drop, its too late to make an investment decision.
The forward looking indicators are in your common sense.
You know things are getting bad, you know Industrial will not escape's it, so you know what's going to happen there.
By the time they go down, maybe Family home real estate will be stabilizing.
1 to 2 years from now.

Soros Believes TARP Misses the Mark

Gentelmen: While times will be hard indeed and by April this year it will seem like the end of the world as we know it is uppon us. Others will come in to replace the weakend and thrashed.
So it says that the smart will inherit the earth... ehem. Sorry the Chosen.
I guess it's all the same as God gave the brains to the smart so that they could inherit the Earth.
To the not so smart and foolish who over leveraged and now have lost it all or are about to do so. All I can say is.. Nothing will happen and you will have to work another 10 or 20 years more to replenish the money stock. Have no doubts you will be able to do so with the sweat of your toil.
Sorry that it will be this way.

Incentives: A Positive Trend Developing For Homebuilders?

Give us a break.
Incentives are down by a few percentage points, but final sale price is down by double digits!
Yes of course people prefer a lower price to a lot of stuff in their home they are not really in need. Marble, Granit, etc.
Buyers are just saying give me the low price and that is it!
Home builders are saying, we are done with the granti top inventory and thus there is no monetizing those items any more, so no need to push them.

No wonder most have lost money in the market.
Like you, they have no idea what is really happening and portend a thesis that has no logic.

Good luck!
You will need it.

Homebuilders Face Pricier Materials [Housing Tracker]

Houses will go up? Tell that to the Japanese 20 years later their houses are still worth 20% off their peak.
No! Houses and all other assets alike can go down for a long time before they get reinflated again.
So this article is wrong.
It has happend before in the economy and it will happen again.
Just because one is 40yrs old and only remembers the current cycle means nothing when assets start to deflate like some times they do.

Don't Confuse the Stock with the Company, or the Market with the Economy

Many things in the article are right. But the only miss is that.. No! The market hasn't reached it's low. Every time we get this kind of economic event, it is always followed by a wash out sell of in WallStreet as it gets clensed from the regular investor.
This hasn't happend yet. Unless this time is different, we havn't reached a bottom yet.
Maybe it is getting ready and it will rally some 500 points to then drop 2000 one day and be below 10,000 as it should.
Be carefull out there.

Predicting the Future of a Troubled Business

What a foolish article.
No wonder that people lose money in the stock market.
And for Joe Ponzio to reprint this plethora of numbers that half way through reading the article one has lost complete track of what it means. Even the math is not right.
Good luck.

Commodity Driven Role Reversal

It all looks very good. But now comes the real thing.
I live in three different countries: USA, Taiwan/China, and Peru.
I move between these 3 every month.
If you think the US consumer is hurting with high prices you can't imagine what is happening in the other two.
US feels bad.
Taiwanese are very much afraid and taking action to curtail spending.
Chinese are being squeezed and their budgets can't sustain even $2 gas right now due to all the inflation.
Peruvians are just plain dead. They now can't even feed their families because 50% of their budget has now gone up in price 200%

So deman destruction takes time as people adapt, but it is taking place right now at an unprecedented level.
By next year we will all realize that the world will be consumig 80million bpd from the current 87 million. The last 7 million bpd then, will be looking for a buyer and they will not find one until it is below $50
This is how recessions work and this time it will not be any different.

That Was Ugly

What a stupid article.
Any one that draws and investment strategy based on this will shurely fail.
Because even though things repeat themselves to a certain extent, the start and end points don't obey to any monthly schedule, they just happen when they do.
Good luck.

Recession: The Forgotten Indicia

Karmaguy hits the spot.
GDP is measured by growth minus inflation.
If we take current growth 3% minus real inflation 6% and going higher then we get our current real GDP growth of -3% well within recession territory.
The reality is that while government figures are correct, they don't tell the truth now but they will in the future.

AU Optronics: Ridiculously Cheap

A free PUMP. I work for AUO and we are seeing a dramatic drop in BTO. We expect a sequential drop of another 15 to 20% in the next quarter.
Wait until the stock is below $15 before you buy any. We have had a good last 12mo. Due to the olimpics and some Dig. TV perps in the US.
US weakness and the start of what seems to be weakness in Asia is what is driving our sales down at this point.
ZACKS apparently seem to be trying to offload some positions that it aquired earlier in the year.
Be careful out there.
Tamen she heng bai ch.

Treasury Yields: A Real-Time Market Sentiment Gauge

That holds true as long as inflation is close to 0% Add inflation to the equation and then any short or long term interest rates will be affected albeit at different levels.
Maybe the FED may just need to increase the FED funds rate even in light of lower economic performance going forward just to offset inflation pressures and to help strengthen the dollar.
Your view while correct is just to simplistic a measure to invest upon or draw up a conclusion.
Good luck.

How a Weaker Dollar Can Mean a Bigger Trade Deficit

The real trade surplus will come from a cheap dollar, US recession.
There is no magic bullet in this game.
For those that believe that China will be pulling the US out of this slump, I suggest they go there and take a look around.
They all live, work, save, and talk US business. 50% of everything being built, sold, or traded is in some way connected to the US economy.
So to all of you talking about economic disconnect etc. I suggest you invest a bit on a round trip ticket and go visit Zhenzhen, or the outskirts of Shanghai to see, feel and smell the consumer that will pull the us out of this mess.
Good luck.

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

Pricing this is simple. Go back to before the beginning of the housing bubble 1999 and look at the price of the HBs. We will be there before we go any higher.
If things really get uggly, I don't believe they will, then we may go back to 1992-94 stock prices. Back then they where worth 1/20th what they are worth today.
Good luck, but the trend is lower.