JREB777's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155430/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/115500-moodys-sees-further-decline-in-u-s-commercial-real-estate?source=feed#comment-372769 372769 The forward looking indicators are in your common sense.
You know things are getting bad, you know Industrial will not escape's it, so you know what's going to happen there.
By the time they go down, maybe Family home real estate will be stabilizing.
1 to 2 years from now.
]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:41:25 -0500 The forward looking indicators are in your common sense.
You know things are getting bad, you know Industrial will not escape's it, so you know what's going to happen there.
By the time they go down, maybe Family home real estate will be stabilizing.
1 to 2 years from now.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115407-soros-believes-tarp-misses-the-mark?source=feed#comment-367252 367252 So it says that the smart will inherit the earth... ehem. Sorry the Chosen.
I guess it's all the same as God gave the brains to the smart so that they could inherit the Earth.
To the not so smart and foolish who over leveraged and now have lost it all or are about to do so. All I can say is.. Nothing will happen and you will have to work another 10 or 20 years more to replenish the money stock. Have no doubts you will be able to do so with the sweat of your toil.
Sorry that it will be this way.
]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 03:41:51 -0500 So it says that the smart will inherit the earth... ehem. Sorry the Chosen.
I guess it's all the same as God gave the brains to the smart so that they could inherit the Earth.
To the not so smart and foolish who over leveraged and now have lost it all or are about to do so. All I can say is.. Nothing will happen and you will have to work another 10 or 20 years more to replenish the money stock. Have no doubts you will be able to do so with the sweat of your toil.
Sorry that it will be this way.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103587-incentives-a-positive-trend-developing-for-homebuilders?source=feed#comment-300255 300255 Incentives are down by a few percentage points, but final sale price is down by double digits!
Yes of course people prefer a lower price to a lot of stuff in their home they are not really in need. Marble, Granit, etc.
Buyers are just saying give me the low price and that is it!
Home builders are saying, we are done with the granti top inventory and thus there is no monetizing those items any more, so no need to push them.

No wonder most have lost money in the market.
Like you, they have no idea what is really happening and portend a thesis that has no logic.

Good luck!
You will need it.
]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:14:53 -0500 Incentives are down by a few percentage points, but final sale price is down by double digits!
Yes of course people prefer a lower price to a lot of stuff in their home they are not really in need. Marble, Granit, etc.
Buyers are just saying give me the low price and that is it!
Home builders are saying, we are done with the granti top inventory and thus there is no monetizing those items any more, so no need to push them.

No wonder most have lost money in the market.
Like you, they have no idea what is really happening and portend a thesis that has no logic.

Good luck!
You will need it.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92664-homebuilders-face-pricier-materials-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-241299 241299 No! Houses and all other assets alike can go down for a long time before they get reinflated again.
So this article is wrong.
It has happend before in the economy and it will happen again.
Just because one is 40yrs old and only remembers the current cycle means nothing when assets start to deflate like some times they do.
]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:59:48 -0400 No! Houses and all other assets alike can go down for a long time before they get reinflated again.
So this article is wrong.
It has happend before in the economy and it will happen again.
Just because one is 40yrs old and only remembers the current cycle means nothing when assets start to deflate like some times they do.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92605-don-t-confuse-the-stock-with-the-company-or-the-market-with-the-economy?source=feed#comment-241298 241298 This hasn't happend yet. Unless this time is different, we havn't reached a bottom yet.
Maybe it is getting ready and it will rally some 500 points to then drop 2000 one day and be below 10,000 as it should.
Be carefull out there.
]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:54:32 -0400 This hasn't happend yet. Unless this time is different, we havn't reached a bottom yet.
Maybe it is getting ready and it will rally some 500 points to then drop 2000 one day and be below 10,000 as it should.
Be carefull out there.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84396-predicting-the-future-of-a-troubled-business?source=feed#comment-204035 204035 No wonder that people lose money in the stock market.
And for Joe Ponzio to reprint this plethora of numbers that half way through reading the article one has lost complete track of what it means. Even the math is not right.
Good luck.
]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:35:51 -0400 No wonder that people lose money in the stock market.
And for Joe Ponzio to reprint this plethora of numbers that half way through reading the article one has lost complete track of what it means. Even the math is not right.
Good luck.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83791-commodity-driven-role-reversal?source=feed#comment-198746 198746 I live in three different countries: USA, Taiwan/China, and Peru.
I move between these 3 every month.
If you think the US consumer is hurting with high prices you can't imagine what is happening in the other two.
US feels bad.
Taiwanese are very much afraid and taking action to curtail spending.
Chinese are being squeezed and their budgets can't sustain even $2 gas right now due to all the inflation.
Peruvians are just plain dead. They now can't even feed their families because 50% of their budget has now gone up in price 200%

So deman destruction takes time as people adapt, but it is taking place right now at an unprecedented level.
By next year we will all realize that the world will be consumig 80million bpd from the current 87 million. The last 7 million bpd then, will be looking for a buyer and they will not find one until it is below $50
This is how recessions work and this time it will not be any different.
]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:41:52 -0400 I live in three different countries: USA, Taiwan/China, and Peru.
I move between these 3 every month.
If you think the US consumer is hurting with high prices you can't imagine what is happening in the other two.
US feels bad.
Taiwanese are very much afraid and taking action to curtail spending.
Chinese are being squeezed and their budgets can't sustain even $2 gas right now due to all the inflation.
Peruvians are just plain dead. They now can't even feed their families because 50% of their budget has now gone up in price 200%

So deman destruction takes time as people adapt, but it is taking place right now at an unprecedented level.
By next year we will all realize that the world will be consumig 80million bpd from the current 87 million. The last 7 million bpd then, will be looking for a buyer and they will not find one until it is below $50
This is how recessions work and this time it will not be any different.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83344-that-was-ugly?source=feed#comment-197019 197019 Any one that draws and investment strategy based on this will shurely fail.
Because even though things repeat themselves to a certain extent, the start and end points don't obey to any monthly schedule, they just happen when they do.
Good luck.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 06:19:27 -0400 Any one that draws and investment strategy based on this will shurely fail.
Because even though things repeat themselves to a certain extent, the start and end points don't obey to any monthly schedule, they just happen when they do.
Good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78692-recession-the-forgotten-indicia?source=feed#comment-175014 175014 GDP is measured by growth minus inflation.
If we take current growth 3% minus real inflation 6% and going higher then we get our current real GDP growth of -3% well within recession territory.
The reality is that while government figures are correct, they don't tell the truth now but they will in the future.
]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 06:02:12 -0400 GDP is measured by growth minus inflation.
If we take current growth 3% minus real inflation 6% and going higher then we get our current real GDP growth of -3% well within recession territory.
The reality is that while government figures are correct, they don't tell the truth now but they will in the future.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77715-au-optronics-ridiculously-cheap?source=feed#comment-169893 169893 Wait until the stock is below $15 before you buy any. We have had a good last 12mo. Due to the olimpics and some Dig. TV perps in the US.
US weakness and the start of what seems to be weakness in Asia is what is driving our sales down at this point.
ZACKS apparently seem to be trying to offload some positions that it aquired earlier in the year.
Be careful out there.
Tamen she heng bai ch.
]]> Mon, 19 May 2008 04:51:32 -0400 Wait until the stock is below $15 before you buy any. We have had a good last 12mo. Due to the olimpics and some Dig. TV perps in the US.
US weakness and the start of what seems to be weakness in Asia is what is driving our sales down at this point.
ZACKS apparently seem to be trying to offload some positions that it aquired earlier in the year.
Be careful out there.
Tamen she heng bai ch.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77593-treasury-yields-a-real-time-market-sentiment-gauge?source=feed#comment-169514 169514 Maybe the FED may just need to increase the FED funds rate even in light of lower economic performance going forward just to offset inflation pressures and to help strengthen the dollar.
Your view while correct is just to simplistic a measure to invest upon or draw up a conclusion.
Good luck.
]]> Sun, 18 May 2008 00:37:41 -0400 Maybe the FED may just need to increase the FED funds rate even in light of lower economic performance going forward just to offset inflation pressures and to help strengthen the dollar.
Your view while correct is just to simplistic a measure to invest upon or draw up a conclusion.
Good luck.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75149-how-a-weaker-dollar-can-mean-a-bigger-trade-deficit?source=feed#comment-160983 160983 There is no magic bullet in this game.
For those that believe that China will be pulling the US out of this slump, I suggest they go there and take a look around.
They all live, work, save, and talk US business. 50% of everything being built, sold, or traded is in some way connected to the US economy.
So to all of you talking about economic disconnect etc. I suggest you invest a bit on a round trip ticket and go visit Zhenzhen, or the outskirts of Shanghai to see, feel and smell the consumer that will pull the us out of this mess.
Good luck.
]]> Fri, 02 May 2008 21:06:42 -0400 There is no magic bullet in this game.
For those that believe that China will be pulling the US out of this slump, I suggest they go there and take a look around.
They all live, work, save, and talk US business. 50% of everything being built, sold, or traded is in some way connected to the US economy.
So to all of you talking about economic disconnect etc. I suggest you invest a bit on a round trip ticket and go visit Zhenzhen, or the outskirts of Shanghai to see, feel and smell the consumer that will pull the us out of this mess.
Good luck.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65791-shorting-the-homebuilders-as-their-stocks-surge?source=feed#comment-118523 118523 If things really get uggly, I don't believe they will, then we may go back to 1992-94 stock prices. Back then they where worth 1/20th what they are worth today.
Good luck, but the trend is lower.
]]> Sun, 24 Feb 2008 21:06:20 -0500 If things really get uggly, I don't believe they will, then we may go back to 1992-94 stock prices. Back then they where worth 1/20th what they are worth today.
Good luck, but the trend is lower.
]]>