Fat Arby's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155433/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/67842-7-suggestions-for-citi-management?source=feed#comment-126173 126173 Vikram is doing everything by the book - for his own and other execs' interests. Please get this in your mind. Wall St has ALWAYS operated like this and it just doesn't quit until people die, go to prison, or the market crashes.
]]> Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:37:50 -0400 Vikram is doing everything by the book - for his own and other execs' interests. Please get this in your mind. Wall St has ALWAYS operated like this and it just doesn't quit until people die, go to prison, or the market crashes.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68186-citi-s-vikram-pandit-forced-to-bail-out-his-own-unit?source=feed#comment-126168 126168 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:30:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68359-sell-the-news-buy-the-rally?source=feed#comment-126166 126166 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:26:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68440-fed-actions-have-produced-goose-eggs?source=feed#comment-126163 126163
If the Romans built beautiful palaces in , say, Segovia, but they ran out of gold, they had to import the gold from somewhere else.
If someone, then, gave them some gold in exchange for those palaces, they would likely bid low.

The US ran out of gold a long time ago but continued issuing credit for a long time. Now, we've run out of gold - and credit.

Look for prices to come down some more.
I'd say for another 20 years]]> Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:17:42 -0400
If the Romans built beautiful palaces in , say, Segovia, but they ran out of gold, they had to import the gold from somewhere else.
If someone, then, gave them some gold in exchange for those palaces, they would likely bid low.

The US ran out of gold a long time ago but continued issuing credit for a long time. Now, we've run out of gold - and credit.

Look for prices to come down some more.
I'd say for another 20 years]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68439-thursday-s-options-report-gdx-f-pgnx-dia-xlf-iwo-iwd?source=feed#comment-126160 126160 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:12:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68412-a-look-at-the-cycle-of-market-emotions?source=feed#comment-126156 126156 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:05:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68194-what-s-wrong-with-this-economic-picture?source=feed#comment-126150 126150 how can this possibly lead to consolidation/recovery...
]]> Thu, 13 Mar 2008 16:49:44 -0400 how can this possibly lead to consolidation/recovery...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67831-dick-bove-says-banking-is-sound-time-to-buy-financials?source=feed#comment-124964 124964 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 01:24:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67404-wamu-wsj-backs-up-my-sell-recommendation?source=feed#comment-124963 124963
in troubled times, it's never too late to maintain the trend. Just keep in mind that bull rallies can scare you into taking a loss. Keep reading the news for any major developments in WAMU like mergers, buyouts, etc... but until economic conditions improve there is no reason why buyers will be greater than sellers. I hit myself in the head for having sold my 19 puts too soon then my 16 puts at 12. If only I had had a bit more patience I would have doubled my profits or more.
tHE bigger question is why? why would a bank with such a large market cap and so many outlets lose so much value in such a short period of time. What hapenned? These are the underlying philosophical tenets which you have to get to know first; then, look at the technicals and choose an entry point.
The thing might very well rally past 11, but keeping it above resistance at 12 is a tricky thing.
Honestly, if I had 1000 spare bucks I would short it; Better yet, I'd wait until march 26-28 and catch the price action. If it looks really weak, then given the continuing erosion in financials it will likely fall further. The long put, strike of 9 dollars, closed today at ask of 155 dollars. If you wanted to buy, say, two puts, you could buy one tomorrow right at the open and then wait a week or two and see if you can't find that put cheaper , say, 100 or less dollars.
Is late march/early april going to send this market up again past 11900? Naw... The international scene is bleak, and China is beginning to look really bearish, so it's a good bet , imhop.


S]]> Tue, 11 Mar 2008 01:22:38 -0400
in troubled times, it's never too late to maintain the trend. Just keep in mind that bull rallies can scare you into taking a loss. Keep reading the news for any major developments in WAMU like mergers, buyouts, etc... but until economic conditions improve there is no reason why buyers will be greater than sellers. I hit myself in the head for having sold my 19 puts too soon then my 16 puts at 12. If only I had had a bit more patience I would have doubled my profits or more.
tHE bigger question is why? why would a bank with such a large market cap and so many outlets lose so much value in such a short period of time. What hapenned? These are the underlying philosophical tenets which you have to get to know first; then, look at the technicals and choose an entry point.
The thing might very well rally past 11, but keeping it above resistance at 12 is a tricky thing.
Honestly, if I had 1000 spare bucks I would short it; Better yet, I'd wait until march 26-28 and catch the price action. If it looks really weak, then given the continuing erosion in financials it will likely fall further. The long put, strike of 9 dollars, closed today at ask of 155 dollars. If you wanted to buy, say, two puts, you could buy one tomorrow right at the open and then wait a week or two and see if you can't find that put cheaper , say, 100 or less dollars.
Is late march/early april going to send this market up again past 11900? Naw... The international scene is bleak, and China is beginning to look really bearish, so it's a good bet , imhop.


S]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67695-cds-it-s-not-about-credit?source=feed#comment-124959 124959
There's supposed to be intrinsic and extrinsic value in these things, aint' there? So, the lingo of 'cost of capital' and other fancy words works only when the money is there. If the money is gone, as it is gone from bond insurers, some banks, and other companies going bankrupt, no amount of spread/capitalization/... and marking with markers will get them out of insolvency. If you haven't yet caught up, it's usually the banks that taint the litmus strip as the bubbles start to collapse. In other words, the banks created the bubble and the banks indicate the collapse. Our economy is collapsing from 80 years of credit creation so no amount of new credit creation is going to bring the US economy out of debt. ]]> Tue, 11 Mar 2008 01:07:28 -0400
There's supposed to be intrinsic and extrinsic value in these things, aint' there? So, the lingo of 'cost of capital' and other fancy words works only when the money is there. If the money is gone, as it is gone from bond insurers, some banks, and other companies going bankrupt, no amount of spread/capitalization/... and marking with markers will get them out of insolvency. If you haven't yet caught up, it's usually the banks that taint the litmus strip as the bubbles start to collapse. In other words, the banks created the bubble and the banks indicate the collapse. Our economy is collapsing from 80 years of credit creation so no amount of new credit creation is going to bring the US economy out of debt. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67921-cable-companies-play-catch-up-to-google-in-targeted-tv-ads?source=feed#comment-124958 124958 I don't know if you remember your stock basics, but when investors buy a share of stock they add capital to that company. The company is supposed to use that capital for improvements, thus maintaining interest in that company. When investors sell their shares, they are decreasing the amount of investment power that company has. Such, the big G needs to get rowing - and fast. :)]]> Tue, 11 Mar 2008 01:00:38 -0400 I don't know if you remember your stock basics, but when investors buy a share of stock they add capital to that company. The company is supposed to use that capital for improvements, thus maintaining interest in that company. When investors sell their shares, they are decreasing the amount of investment power that company has. Such, the big G needs to get rowing - and fast. :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66154-housing-market-tracker-subprime-slump-hits-tennessee?source=feed#comment-120489 120489
I never 'get' your columns, or whatever they may be. They're all disjointed, like studying anatomy/physiology with a bunch of bones every which way and muscles and tendons strewn about. Could we get a thesis, and maybe a conclusion? Thanks?!]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 22:51:43 -0500
I never 'get' your columns, or whatever they may be. They're all disjointed, like studying anatomy/physiology with a bunch of bones every which way and muscles and tendons strewn about. Could we get a thesis, and maybe a conclusion? Thanks?!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66462-the-jury-is-still-out-on-the-monolines?source=feed#comment-120486 120486 So, why worry? Your money is safe in them bonds, and if , for some reason, the market comes crashing down and inflation skyrockets and municipalities start declaring 'bad times are here', well, it was no one's fault! They just market forces!]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 22:16:43 -0500 So, why worry? Your money is safe in them bonds, and if , for some reason, the market comes crashing down and inflation skyrockets and municipalities start declaring 'bad times are here', well, it was no one's fault! They just market forces!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66472-iau-can-spot-gold-continue-its-tear?source=feed#comment-120379 120379
CASEY]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:56:43 -0500
CASEY]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66472-iau-can-spot-gold-continue-its-tear?source=feed#comment-120376 120376 ETF's aren't BONDS , you know? it's a service for you to get in on the HARD METALS, commodities. This might be an equity, but it's linked to a commodity . so, no, it's not going to just go away.! Sure they might get a tiny fee of some sort, but until you trade futures it's your only avenue to get straight in. Straight up!]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:54:22 -0500 ETF's aren't BONDS , you know? it's a service for you to get in on the HARD METALS, commodities. This might be an equity, but it's linked to a commodity . so, no, it's not going to just go away.! Sure they might get a tiny fee of some sort, but until you trade futures it's your only avenue to get straight in. Straight up!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66422-thursday-outlook-window-dressing-symbolism?source=feed#comment-120370 120370 Red Option advisories at REd option .com .
You'll thank me when you get to France, but let me tell you something: When they say , Go! you Go!, and don't try to reanalyze what they've already done! When they say Stop! , you stop! and don't look back.
I had the dough when they said GLD but then blew it in options. I had money left when they said STAY AWAY but what did I do? I went back in. Now, I wish I had paid off a few more bills or paid my rent in advance.
Start at the commentary section and continue with the shadow trader weekly and then choose the advisory that's right for you.
Best!]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:47:19 -0500 Red Option advisories at REd option .com .
You'll thank me when you get to France, but let me tell you something: When they say , Go! you Go!, and don't try to reanalyze what they've already done! When they say Stop! , you stop! and don't look back.
I had the dough when they said GLD but then blew it in options. I had money left when they said STAY AWAY but what did I do? I went back in. Now, I wish I had paid off a few more bills or paid my rent in advance.
Start at the commentary section and continue with the shadow trader weekly and then choose the advisory that's right for you.
Best!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66524-leap-year-trading-slightly-negative-on-average?source=feed#comment-120363 120363 Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:35:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66460-will-citigroup-go-to-the-teens?source=feed#comment-120358 120358 Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:17:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66460-will-citigroup-go-to-the-teens?source=feed#comment-120357 120357
There's people who predicted the mortgage lenders downturn; there's folks who knew about AMBAC/MBIA . There's experts that will give you their advisories, albeit at a ridiculous price sometimes.

Sure, if you want to profit from this stuff, you really have to know what you're doing. Else, be well capitalized when your options turn to mush. ON the flip side, Citi IS a global company and they DO have a lot of funds interested in this stuff. It would be key to do the numbers, such as shares outstanding, market cap, preferred stock, and new issues coming out.
So, again, I wouldn't give a rat's a** if this co did go down the tubes. They once had the best customer service but at some point they treated me like I was a walking sack of so I want nothing to do with 'em.
But you all should keep in mind that they have a very diversified portfolio. However, if the economies in Asia do start to implode and writeoffs begin in HK and Shanghai too then perhaps they could start to lose market share. At this point with most Asian economies strong, I can't see them dipping below 20.
But , who knows...let's see, you could establish a vertical straddle strategy for $45 22.5/20 vertical put and $102.00 25/27.50 vertical call per contract, or 100 shares leveraged.
Go for it, but keep in mind that options lose value as time passes so if the stock goes sideways for a month you might lose at least 50% of the value if not more. In fact, a vertical is really time sensitive, so for a little extra you could go long.
best
]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:15:27 -0500
There's people who predicted the mortgage lenders downturn; there's folks who knew about AMBAC/MBIA . There's experts that will give you their advisories, albeit at a ridiculous price sometimes.

Sure, if you want to profit from this stuff, you really have to know what you're doing. Else, be well capitalized when your options turn to mush. ON the flip side, Citi IS a global company and they DO have a lot of funds interested in this stuff. It would be key to do the numbers, such as shares outstanding, market cap, preferred stock, and new issues coming out.
So, again, I wouldn't give a rat's a** if this co did go down the tubes. They once had the best customer service but at some point they treated me like I was a walking sack of so I want nothing to do with 'em.
But you all should keep in mind that they have a very diversified portfolio. However, if the economies in Asia do start to implode and writeoffs begin in HK and Shanghai too then perhaps they could start to lose market share. At this point with most Asian economies strong, I can't see them dipping below 20.
But , who knows...let's see, you could establish a vertical straddle strategy for $45 22.5/20 vertical put and $102.00 25/27.50 vertical call per contract, or 100 shares leveraged.
Go for it, but keep in mind that options lose value as time passes so if the stock goes sideways for a month you might lose at least 50% of the value if not more. In fact, a vertical is really time sensitive, so for a little extra you could go long.
best
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66485-ambac-mbia-are-still-shorts-amidst-this-wink-and-nod?source=feed#comment-120318 120318 and the best way to play this?

either get in early, as some bad-ass traders did last year, or with an options strategy. Alas h/s= 20.20, but a straddle works wonders with these stocks because you just never know which way the news is gonna go! All you know is that the volatility will be incessant. My may put is in the dumps right now but, had I bought a call instead of buying back my short put (I had a vertical which I turned into a long ) my losses would have been covered and I'd still have time for a move to the downside.
Shorting is really an expert's game. A better way to play these is with options. However, it's not child's game either, but the potential for profits, in a short-term frame, is still there.
We're dealing with a whole lot of bonds here and with an explosive situation that could lead to a lot of troubles in a lot of municipalities in a lot of states, so SP and Mood need to be extremely cautious when issuing their ratings. It is plausible, however, that given enough publicity and downward pressure and earnings/loss reports they might get around to finally doing it. When that day comes, it won't come as an isolated incident in the market; it will likely be within a framework of other negative news that will see the market lower.]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 14:15:52 -0500 and the best way to play this?

either get in early, as some bad-ass traders did last year, or with an options strategy. Alas h/s= 20.20, but a straddle works wonders with these stocks because you just never know which way the news is gonna go! All you know is that the volatility will be incessant. My may put is in the dumps right now but, had I bought a call instead of buying back my short put (I had a vertical which I turned into a long ) my losses would have been covered and I'd still have time for a move to the downside.
Shorting is really an expert's game. A better way to play these is with options. However, it's not child's game either, but the potential for profits, in a short-term frame, is still there.
We're dealing with a whole lot of bonds here and with an explosive situation that could lead to a lot of troubles in a lot of municipalities in a lot of states, so SP and Mood need to be extremely cautious when issuing their ratings. It is plausible, however, that given enough publicity and downward pressure and earnings/loss reports they might get around to finally doing it. When that day comes, it won't come as an isolated incident in the market; it will likely be within a framework of other negative news that will see the market lower.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66353-declining-home-prices-rising-mortgage-rates?source=feed#comment-120253 120253 whereas you probably watch 2MuchCr, commodities will be king and I hope that I can raise enuf capital to buy in at some point.
there's books out there that explain it all. try it amazon , search for 200 dollar oil, that kind of thing. Your bet will only be right if you're long the green back. At this point it's too soon to tell, in my op. If the Fed stops at 2.5 and starts hiking, then ok. but if not, if goes to 1.5 you're losing money to dollar and to inflation and to interest on loan. and maybe to those who'd take it from under your mattress.]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 12:25:46 -0500 whereas you probably watch 2MuchCr, commodities will be king and I hope that I can raise enuf capital to buy in at some point.
there's books out there that explain it all. try it amazon , search for 200 dollar oil, that kind of thing. Your bet will only be right if you're long the green back. At this point it's too soon to tell, in my op. If the Fed stops at 2.5 and starts hiking, then ok. but if not, if goes to 1.5 you're losing money to dollar and to inflation and to interest on loan. and maybe to those who'd take it from under your mattress.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66410-is-wells-fargo-s-latest-memo-a-sign-real-estate-is-bottoming?source=feed#comment-120233 120233
I suppose that since a house is , like, the most expensive thing on earth due to the staggering amount of commodities and goods inside of it, including copper, silver, etc etc, it's bound to be very expensive.

However, certain locations are pure *excrement*, xcuse the expression, and even then prices are outrageous.
Labor, interest rates, and location all determine a house's value.
It's a strange world, that's for sure, but I just hope that at some point we get some kick-ass regulation which will stop speculators from pushing prices to the sky and honest , hard-working people who deserve a good place to raise their kids don't have to be stuck next to a freeway or in a crime-infested area.
It's also obvious that there's a lot of corruption in the contracting arena. These little things need to be much more carefully regulated so that a house doesn't end up costing zillions and zillions of dollars. Ever heard of the MILLION DOLLAR RV? C'mon, how insane IS that?]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 12:04:41 -0500
I suppose that since a house is , like, the most expensive thing on earth due to the staggering amount of commodities and goods inside of it, including copper, silver, etc etc, it's bound to be very expensive.

However, certain locations are pure *excrement*, xcuse the expression, and even then prices are outrageous.
Labor, interest rates, and location all determine a house's value.
It's a strange world, that's for sure, but I just hope that at some point we get some kick-ass regulation which will stop speculators from pushing prices to the sky and honest , hard-working people who deserve a good place to raise their kids don't have to be stuck next to a freeway or in a crime-infested area.
It's also obvious that there's a lot of corruption in the contracting arena. These little things need to be much more carefully regulated so that a house doesn't end up costing zillions and zillions of dollars. Ever heard of the MILLION DOLLAR RV? C'mon, how insane IS that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66429-inflation-growth-and-fed-failures?source=feed#comment-120221 120221 look into Elliot Wave analysis. It's right up your alley
Also, Richard Duncan. He's a great economist with great historical insight into Bernanke's blah blah blah
Basically, we're becoming the next Japan..
]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 11:49:29 -0500 look into Elliot Wave analysis. It's right up your alley
Also, Richard Duncan. He's a great economist with great historical insight into Bernanke's blah blah blah
Basically, we're becoming the next Japan..
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66450-wall-street-research-your-money-what-is-the-answer?source=feed#comment-120211 120211 My approach is to take a macro approach; In a housing downturn, don't hold any housing-related stocks. Of course, on the micro economic level, if I'm vested in options, I stand to lose a bunch because the rallies leave my contracts worthless. But on a longer term, why go against the trend? If you want things to hold, try metals, or the soft commodities (I can say that now that I didn't do it; h/s =20/20) but I prefer to buy puts on these slimy things.
eLSE, get 'married' to them, though on slow moving stocks it's a bit more difficult. the money flows when the stock goes, or so it seems...]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 11:34:38 -0500 My approach is to take a macro approach; In a housing downturn, don't hold any housing-related stocks. Of course, on the micro economic level, if I'm vested in options, I stand to lose a bunch because the rallies leave my contracts worthless. But on a longer term, why go against the trend? If you want things to hold, try metals, or the soft commodities (I can say that now that I didn't do it; h/s =20/20) but I prefer to buy puts on these slimy things.
eLSE, get 'married' to them, though on slow moving stocks it's a bit more difficult. the money flows when the stock goes, or so it seems...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66274-u-s-in-2008-a-chance-to-learn-from-japan-s-lost-decade?source=feed#comment-119849 119849 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:07:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66289-just-another-credit-crunch?source=feed#comment-119845 119845 I buy a contract, cost one hundred. The underlying security goes down 10 percent - and doesn't come back. As time passes, I'm down 20 30 40 50 percent, and then, one fine day, voosh! 100 percent loss.
This is LEVERAGE. BAnks are overly LEVERAGED and it's JUST BEGINNING to become apparent. So, please, do a little research into the credit equation. Don't mean to be mean but it's a mean market. Lots of mean people.]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:02:52 -0500 I buy a contract, cost one hundred. The underlying security goes down 10 percent - and doesn't come back. As time passes, I'm down 20 30 40 50 percent, and then, one fine day, voosh! 100 percent loss.
This is LEVERAGE. BAnks are overly LEVERAGED and it's JUST BEGINNING to become apparent. So, please, do a little research into the credit equation. Don't mean to be mean but it's a mean market. Lots of mean people.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66289-just-another-credit-crunch?source=feed#comment-119841 119841 This year we had 2 lunar eclipses- red moon.

Personally, I want to see a big correction. why? I want wealth! Once upon a time I had plenty of it but it was yanked from me. Now, I want it back. It's my birthright. ]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 14:52:57 -0500 This year we had 2 lunar eclipses- red moon.

Personally, I want to see a big correction. why? I want wealth! Once upon a time I had plenty of it but it was yanked from me. Now, I want it back. It's my birthright. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66289-just-another-credit-crunch?source=feed#comment-119838 119838 When their collateral fails, that being mortgages, they're bound by the terms of that debt, ie, collateral. They still have to pay it, so what they do is take it off the books. It doesn't matter that 90% of the money is still coming in; what matters is that that 10% has grown to to 40% of a certain CDO or whatnot. See? this is our 'credit creation machine'. It has taken down markets in the past and will likely take this one down too.]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 14:49:02 -0500 When their collateral fails, that being mortgages, they're bound by the terms of that debt, ie, collateral. They still have to pay it, so what they do is take it off the books. It doesn't matter that 90% of the money is still coming in; what matters is that that 10% has grown to to 40% of a certain CDO or whatnot. See? this is our 'credit creation machine'. It has taken down markets in the past and will likely take this one down too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66327-wednesday-s-options-report-phm-tol-noc-fnm-fre-xlb-adsk-jef-nsm?source=feed#comment-119834 119834 helpful to know

how's the re insurance group doing?]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 14:38:09 -0500 helpful to know

how's the re insurance group doing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66300-bad-economic-policy-eventually-catches-up-to-you?source=feed#comment-119832 119832 Why don't US sovereign funds invest IN the US?
Are they out of money? If so , then there must be a drain somewhere...quick, let's find it!
]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 14:35:23 -0500 Why don't US sovereign funds invest IN the US?
Are they out of money? If so , then there must be a drain somewhere...quick, let's find it!
]]>