markg

While Retail Sales Decline, FHA House Sales Soar

I recently bought a house with 3.5% down because I can easily afford the payments, I have quite a bit more in IRA's, and top credit. If you don't have all of these you will not get a loan. My after tax payment is right at what my house would rent for, even with the low down. And according to zillow, (arguable I know so don't bother) my house has appreciated 8% since I bought it.

I do not expect to flip this house, but live in it for many years. There are lots of people in the same boat that I am that are buying now. Frankly I don't really understand what so many people in SA get from being permanently bearish. The world may not end afterall. Get over it.

More Headwinds for Housing: This Time It's Prime Mortgages

"But, let's just continue to believe that housing and the economy will continue to get worse and worse. Heck, maybe, they'll be giving them away free in cereal boxes. It's a "lock," as somebody posted, right?

Relentless pessimism, persisting well past bottoms, is one of the biggest investment-opportunity killers."

Many people told me I was fruitloops in 2005 when I would make comments predicting a serious reckoning in the housing market. The bears are doing the same thing now. This is why it's good to be somewhat contrarian. This is also called making decisions based on information, not popular sentiment. Many opportunities ahead for those that think and don't blindly follow the herd.

Why House Prices Will Resume Their Fall

The Case Schiller index is, now repeat after me, "adjusted for inflation"

Obama has the $$ presses going full speed, interest rates are low. It does not take a genius to figure out that the way you stop the slide is to artificially raise the bar by de-valuing the dollar. Has real estate frequently been considered a hedge against inflation? Yes, so why do you all think there are people bidding against each other to buy houses in California. Not just the low end either. It's ok to be bearish. It's ok to be bullish too.

What one really needs to do in these uncertain times is to evaluate what is happening, not what you or someone else thinks should be happening. Thinking, not reacting, is required.

Expect Housing Prices to Continue to Rise

I'm not a bull or bear, but I will say that the bears make no better rational argument than the author.

There are several markets, southern California being one, where the after-tax payments will be very close to the monthly rental. This sort of agrees with the notion that houses should be purchased as a place you can live, and maybe a long term investment. And in case anyone cares to look, the affordability index is above 2002 levels.

Who Cares About Future House Prices?

Good points made. I wouldn't be so quick to discount the tax aspect. When the post tax payment in SoCal dropped below rental cost for the equivalent house I bought one. Apparently alot of other people in Californai have the same criteria.

For me it's at least a ten year deal, and over that ten years I am sure will do fine financially.

Housing Bubble, The Sequel

Two points: 1. I hope all the people that voted for Obama because Bush was in the pocket of the banks are happy now. 2. Did anyone really expect the major financial institutes to do nothing while their assets are declining daily?

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Recovery in Real Estate Prices

Question, why do the two indices mentioned below have to move in phase? Do oil and soybeans have to move in phase? If you look back to the stock market indices, 2001 to 2002 was pretty bleak. Housing was starting to roll.

The only certainty is that the past does not guarantee the future.

On Jul 08 09:30 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> The S&P dropped to its 1997 level last March while the Case Shiler
> index is only at its 2002 or 2003 level. There neeeds to be a healthy
> correction before things can improve. This was just the beginning
> of the correction I am afraid. Then the story does not end here for
> the toxicity of the bank assets cause the commercial real estate
> is also going to crash. I am excited to see how the Wall-Street cheerleaders
> are gonna be calling the turnaroung when all of the pieces start
> to fall apart.

Navigating Today's Real Estate Market

73% of all sales this year have been under $400k
11% were from $401k to $500k
11% were from $501k to $700k
8% were over $700k

1st question; how does this compare to the total numbers of houses that would sell, (or would be valued) in this price range?

2nd question, do you have a single shred of facts to back up what you are saying? This is why realtors in general have zero credibility.

3rd, and last, a house selling for $325k even in Oceanside is going to be a complete fixer unless it's a condo.

Comparing Medicine’s Cost and Effectiveness

1.1 billion to COMPARE benefits and investigate surgical efficacy?

This should be a doctoral thesis, at most. Comparing surgical procedures with the millions of differences in anatomy and surgical skill sets is ludicrous at best, and an idea clearly floated by someone with zero hands on experience.

The problem with health care costs is not the drugs, devices, or doctors. It's the layers of beaurocratic fat. This is the biggest boondoggle in a mis-managed government yet.

A Housing Crisis Case Study: The 95747 Bubble

People have incredibly short memories. Anyone capable of critical thinking could and did see the bubble forming. This is another one of those "how could it happen" articles that are not only pointless, but fail to recognize the two other bubbles of recent past, the late 70's and late 80's. Both previous times housing price increases were well ahead of salary increases. This is all that matters.
In all three cases, when I would tell people that prices were out of alignment, and the appreciation rates were unsustainable I was generally laughed at and considered a crackpot.

To expect critical thinking to replace greed is a huge mistake, and I don't know how you could possibly expect it now, or in 10 years, or in 80 years unless there is a significant change in the human thought process.

Housing Outlook: Real Estate Reality

"That being said, you could grow old in your current home waiting for it to return to it's value of 2005, adjusted for inflation."

The inflation part is key to the government's plan to prop up house prices. Ponder this; the Fed keeps rates low, which makes it cheaper to borrow, and also helps rate reset's from going ballistic. What does this do? It makes it much easier for people with ARM's to stay in their houses. Add inflation to the mix to give people incentive to stay in their houses as an apprciating asset. This is the only way the govenment can hope to stabilize the RE market. It's also very consistent with them currently running the presses full speed.

Housing Recovery: Where Will Demand Come From?

It is entirely possible to buy a house with less than 20% down. I just did it. And I put 5% down. I have good, (actually great) credit, a good job with stable history, and some other assets. But, and this is the big one, even with PMI my after tax payment is equal or less than renting the same value house. And my payment to income ratio is good. In other words, I bought well within my means. Yea I know, what a weird concept.

Real Estate: Rentals and Sales Prices Out of Sync

Evergreen makes a good point. To illustrate, I just bought a house via short sale in California, 2 miles from the ocean at a price shown on Zillow to be right at mid 2003 pricing. And this house would rent at or above the after-tax payment with 10% down.

One relevant point here is that you have to look at purchases on a case by case basis, and not make judgements based on national or regional trends.

The Fed Wasn't to Blame for the Housing Bubble?

While I don't disagree with the premise, there were several other contributing factors; a bubble mentality taken to high levels, very easy access to credit through the so-called liar loans, and makes coerced by Congress to ease lending standards.

When you go to the grocery store and hear the checkers talking about flipping houses, you can pretty much figure the party's about over..

To the author, great place to live isn't it. I've surfed Cotton's Point since Nixon was in office and live 1 mile from you.

Barron's Calls a Bottom

This is one truely asinine statement. The fiasco started with Mr. Blue Dress himself wanting to put every breathing person in a house, continued by a democratic congress applying heavy pressure to relax lending standards. And continued by the general ineptitude of Bernanke et. al. There is plenty of blame to go around, including but not limited to Bush.

The problem isn't Obama's length of term in office, its the fact he promised a solution, and all ideas proposed so far have been hopeless. He can't even nominate cabinet members who can be confirmed without problems. So far he hasn't done much to gain credibility. And I hope that changes soon.

A great deal of general greed and carelessness by the financial industries lead to the rest. This is the group that thinks passing paper and getting points is a value added business and they should get millions for playing the bigger fool game on a grand scale.

On Mar 09 01:42 AM User 372304 wrote:

> Let's see. Bush and cronies were in office for eight years and created
> this mess...in spades. And the wizards at Barrons have the audacity
> to call this the Obama Bear Market. Give us a break guys. He's been
> in office for less than seven weeks.
>
> If there is any hope...it's going to come from the practical, realistic,
> transparent policies of the Obama Administration. Wall Street deserves
> all of the pain they have created from Grasso to Madoff. It has become
> one crooked, corrupt place that deserves to go down, down, down.
> Then maybe we can start rebuilding a society based on truth, service
> and peace.