markg's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155498/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/159977-while-retail-sales-decline-fha-house-sales-soar?source=feed#comment-662768 662768
I do not expect to flip this house, but live in it for many years. There are lots of people in the same boat that I am that are buying now. Frankly I don't really understand what so many people in SA get from being permanently bearish. The world may not end afterall. Get over it. ]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:56:00 -0400
I do not expect to flip this house, but live in it for many years. There are lots of people in the same boat that I am that are buying now. Frankly I don't really understand what so many people in SA get from being permanently bearish. The world may not end afterall. Get over it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154329-more-headwinds-for-housing-this-time-it-s-prime-mortgages?source=feed#comment-618996 618996
Relentless pessimism, persisting well past bottoms, is one of the biggest investment-opportunity killers."

Many people told me I was fruitloops in 2005 when I would make comments predicting a serious reckoning in the housing market. The bears are doing the same thing now. This is why it's good to be somewhat contrarian. This is also called making decisions based on information, not popular sentiment. Many opportunities ahead for those that think and don't blindly follow the herd. ]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:21:59 -0400
Relentless pessimism, persisting well past bottoms, is one of the biggest investment-opportunity killers."

Many people told me I was fruitloops in 2005 when I would make comments predicting a serious reckoning in the housing market. The bears are doing the same thing now. This is why it's good to be somewhat contrarian. This is also called making decisions based on information, not popular sentiment. Many opportunities ahead for those that think and don't blindly follow the herd. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152885-why-house-prices-will-resume-their-fall?source=feed#comment-610179 610179
Obama has the $$ presses going full speed, interest rates are low. It does not take a genius to figure out that the way you stop the slide is to artificially raise the bar by de-valuing the dollar. Has real estate frequently been considered a hedge against inflation? Yes, so why do you all think there are people bidding against each other to buy houses in California. Not just the low end either. It's ok to be bearish. It's ok to be bullish too.

What one really needs to do in these uncertain times is to evaluate what is happening, not what you or someone else thinks should be happening. Thinking, not reacting, is required. ]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 16:12:44 -0400
Obama has the $$ presses going full speed, interest rates are low. It does not take a genius to figure out that the way you stop the slide is to artificially raise the bar by de-valuing the dollar. Has real estate frequently been considered a hedge against inflation? Yes, so why do you all think there are people bidding against each other to buy houses in California. Not just the low end either. It's ok to be bearish. It's ok to be bullish too.

What one really needs to do in these uncertain times is to evaluate what is happening, not what you or someone else thinks should be happening. Thinking, not reacting, is required. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151822-expect-housing-prices-to-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-606105 606105
There are several markets, southern California being one, where the after-tax payments will be very close to the monthly rental. This sort of agrees with the notion that houses should be purchased as a place you can live, and maybe a long term investment. And in case anyone cares to look, the affordability index is above 2002 levels.
]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 01:13:27 -0400
There are several markets, southern California being one, where the after-tax payments will be very close to the monthly rental. This sort of agrees with the notion that houses should be purchased as a place you can live, and maybe a long term investment. And in case anyone cares to look, the affordability index is above 2002 levels.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149533-who-cares-about-future-house-prices?source=feed#comment-593049 593049
For me it's at least a ten year deal, and over that ten years I am sure will do fine financially. ]]> Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:14:26 -0400
For me it's at least a ten year deal, and over that ten years I am sure will do fine financially. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148972-housing-bubble-the-sequel?source=feed#comment-589910 589910 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:54:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147560-dont-expect-a-v-shaped-recovery-in-real-estate-prices?source=feed#comment-579971 579971
The only certainty is that the past does not guarantee the future.

On Jul 08 09:30 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> The S&P dropped to its 1997 level last March while the Case Shiler
> index is only at its 2002 or 2003 level. There neeeds to be a healthy
> correction before things can improve. This was just the beginning
> of the correction I am afraid. Then the story does not end here for
> the toxicity of the bank assets cause the commercial real estate
> is also going to crash. I am excited to see how the Wall-Street cheerleaders
> are gonna be calling the turnaroung when all of the pieces start
> to fall apart.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:23:00 -0400
The only certainty is that the past does not guarantee the future.

On Jul 08 09:30 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> The S&P dropped to its 1997 level last March while the Case Shiler
> index is only at its 2002 or 2003 level. There neeeds to be a healthy
> correction before things can improve. This was just the beginning
> of the correction I am afraid. Then the story does not end here for
> the toxicity of the bank assets cause the commercial real estate
> is also going to crash. I am excited to see how the Wall-Street cheerleaders
> are gonna be calling the turnaroung when all of the pieces start
> to fall apart.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147597-navigating-today-s-real-estate-market?source=feed#comment-579959 579959 11% were from $401k to $500k
11% were from $501k to $700k
8% were over $700k

1st question; how does this compare to the total numbers of houses that would sell, (or would be valued) in this price range?

2nd question, do you have a single shred of facts to back up what you are saying? This is why realtors in general have zero credibility.

3rd, and last, a house selling for $325k even in Oceanside is going to be a complete fixer unless it's a condo. ]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:04:30 -0400 11% were from $401k to $500k
11% were from $501k to $700k
8% were over $700k

1st question; how does this compare to the total numbers of houses that would sell, (or would be valued) in this price range?

2nd question, do you have a single shred of facts to back up what you are saying? This is why realtors in general have zero credibility.

3rd, and last, a house selling for $325k even in Oceanside is going to be a complete fixer unless it's a condo. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146468-comparing-medicines-cost-and-effectiveness?source=feed#comment-570987 570987
This should be a doctoral thesis, at most. Comparing surgical procedures with the millions of differences in anatomy and surgical skill sets is ludicrous at best, and an idea clearly floated by someone with zero hands on experience.

The problem with health care costs is not the drugs, devices, or doctors. It's the layers of beaurocratic fat. This is the biggest boondoggle in a mis-managed government yet. ]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:27:54 -0400
This should be a doctoral thesis, at most. Comparing surgical procedures with the millions of differences in anatomy and surgical skill sets is ludicrous at best, and an idea clearly floated by someone with zero hands on experience.

The problem with health care costs is not the drugs, devices, or doctors. It's the layers of beaurocratic fat. This is the biggest boondoggle in a mis-managed government yet. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138614-a-housing-crisis-case-study-the-95747-bubble?source=feed#comment-510854 510854 In all three cases, when I would tell people that prices were out of alignment, and the appreciation rates were unsustainable I was generally laughed at and considered a crackpot.

To expect critical thinking to replace greed is a huge mistake, and I don't know how you could possibly expect it now, or in 10 years, or in 80 years unless there is a significant change in the human thought process. ]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 06:46:38 -0400 In all three cases, when I would tell people that prices were out of alignment, and the appreciation rates were unsustainable I was generally laughed at and considered a crackpot.

To expect critical thinking to replace greed is a huge mistake, and I don't know how you could possibly expect it now, or in 10 years, or in 80 years unless there is a significant change in the human thought process. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138057-housing-outlook-real-estate-reality?source=feed#comment-508559 508559
The inflation part is key to the government's plan to prop up house prices. Ponder this; the Fed keeps rates low, which makes it cheaper to borrow, and also helps rate reset's from going ballistic. What does this do? It makes it much easier for people with ARM's to stay in their houses. Add inflation to the mix to give people incentive to stay in their houses as an apprciating asset. This is the only way the govenment can hope to stabilize the RE market. It's also very consistent with them currently running the presses full speed. ]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 14:20:53 -0400
The inflation part is key to the government's plan to prop up house prices. Ponder this; the Fed keeps rates low, which makes it cheaper to borrow, and also helps rate reset's from going ballistic. What does this do? It makes it much easier for people with ARM's to stay in their houses. Add inflation to the mix to give people incentive to stay in their houses as an apprciating asset. This is the only way the govenment can hope to stabilize the RE market. It's also very consistent with them currently running the presses full speed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136065-housing-recovery-where-will-demand-come-from?source=feed#comment-493564 493564 Thu, 07 May 2009 09:33:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134231-real-estate-rentals-and-sales-prices-out-of-sync?source=feed#comment-484994 484994
One relevant point here is that you have to look at purchases on a case by case basis, and not make judgements based on national or regional trends. ]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 01:04:51 -0400
One relevant point here is that you have to look at purchases on a case by case basis, and not make judgements based on national or regional trends. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125424-the-fed-wasn-t-to-blame-for-the-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-423860 423860
When you go to the grocery store and hear the checkers talking about flipping houses, you can pretty much figure the party's about over..

To the author, great place to live isn't it. I've surfed Cotton's Point since Nixon was in office and live 1 mile from you. ]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 21:18:19 -0400
When you go to the grocery store and hear the checkers talking about flipping houses, you can pretty much figure the party's about over..

To the author, great place to live isn't it. I've surfed Cotton's Point since Nixon was in office and live 1 mile from you. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124794-barron-s-calls-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-419992 419992
The problem isn't Obama's length of term in office, its the fact he promised a solution, and all ideas proposed so far have been hopeless. He can't even nominate cabinet members who can be confirmed without problems. So far he hasn't done much to gain credibility. And I hope that changes soon.

A great deal of general greed and carelessness by the financial industries lead to the rest. This is the group that thinks passing paper and getting points is a value added business and they should get millions for playing the bigger fool game on a grand scale.

On Mar 09 01:42 AM User 372304 wrote:

> Let's see. Bush and cronies were in office for eight years and created
> this mess...in spades. And the wizards at Barrons have the audacity
> to call this the Obama Bear Market. Give us a break guys. He's been
> in office for less than seven weeks.
>
> If there is any hope...it's going to come from the practical, realistic,
> transparent policies of the Obama Administration. Wall Street deserves
> all of the pain they have created from Grasso to Madoff. It has become
> one crooked, corrupt place that deserves to go down, down, down.
> Then maybe we can start rebuilding a society based on truth, service
> and peace.]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 23:06:29 -0400
The problem isn't Obama's length of term in office, its the fact he promised a solution, and all ideas proposed so far have been hopeless. He can't even nominate cabinet members who can be confirmed without problems. So far he hasn't done much to gain credibility. And I hope that changes soon.

A great deal of general greed and carelessness by the financial industries lead to the rest. This is the group that thinks passing paper and getting points is a value added business and they should get millions for playing the bigger fool game on a grand scale.

On Mar 09 01:42 AM User 372304 wrote:

> Let's see. Bush and cronies were in office for eight years and created
> this mess...in spades. And the wizards at Barrons have the audacity
> to call this the Obama Bear Market. Give us a break guys. He's been
> in office for less than seven weeks.
>
> If there is any hope...it's going to come from the practical, realistic,
> transparent policies of the Obama Administration. Wall Street deserves
> all of the pain they have created from Grasso to Madoff. It has become
> one crooked, corrupt place that deserves to go down, down, down.
> Then maybe we can start rebuilding a society based on truth, service
> and peace.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124486-markets-are-working-ca-home-sales-increase-100-as-home-prices-fall?source=feed#comment-418732 418732
I follow the SoCal real estate market pretty closely, and the houses under $600k are starting to sell. if you follow individual houses, when they come up and they are priced right they do sell. The houses over $7ook are still sitting. This also leads to the lower medians posted. ]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:56:51 -0400
I follow the SoCal real estate market pretty closely, and the houses under $600k are starting to sell. if you follow individual houses, when they come up and they are priced right they do sell. The houses over $7ook are still sitting. This also leads to the lower medians posted. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123154-housing-where-is-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-405575 405575
I have brought this up several times, and have yet to see a SA writer acknowledge this. ]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 08:50:14 -0500
I have brought this up several times, and have yet to see a SA writer acknowledge this. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122483-when-will-housing-bottom?source=feed#comment-403946 403946 The place we are buying is at or below rent cost on an after tax basis. But as in all things, the individual deal counts alot too. The 45% figure for properties sold being distressed is highly indicitive also. ]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 00:31:11 -0500 The place we are buying is at or below rent cost on an after tax basis. But as in all things, the individual deal counts alot too. The 45% figure for properties sold being distressed is highly indicitive also. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122536-a-simple-housing-fix-government-buy-down-of-mortgage-balances?source=feed#comment-402676 402676
This proposal does NOTHING to stimulate an economy that needs more jobs, emerging technology, and productivity. This proposal is more of the same thinking that got us here in the first place, privatize profits, socialize losses. No thanks.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 08:53:08 -0500
This proposal does NOTHING to stimulate an economy that needs more jobs, emerging technology, and productivity. This proposal is more of the same thinking that got us here in the first place, privatize profits, socialize losses. No thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122563-thoughts-on-last-night-s-speech-by-the-president?source=feed#comment-402639 402639
And why are the immigrants the best, brightest, and hardest working? This is another over-simplified generalization. ]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 08:39:16 -0500
And why are the immigrants the best, brightest, and hardest working? This is another over-simplified generalization. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121881-made-in-usa-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-400456 400456

On Feb 22 10:56 AM ROLEXDAYTONA wrote:

> Living in Frankfurt/Main and shopping there, I can't find here any
> American brands, for Europe, American quality is almost like Made
> in Thailand.
> The only thing that remains in Europe from America, is trading houses
> with their complex deleveraged exotic trading desks, but soon this
> will be gone too.
> I have advise to Americans, buy only Made in USA goods, otherwise
> your country will become so poor and dangerous, with crime levels
> like in Al Capone times.

Is this why Harley Davidson has done so well in Europe? I'm not even a Harley fan and I know this.

Europe unfortunately has had their share of paper shuffling musical chairs. In case you missed it, the economy is a global problem, and the misuse of the financial markets by the stupid and greedy is universal.

The lesson here, as is often the case, is that overgeneralizations are easy to make as well as misleading. ]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:13:49 -0500

On Feb 22 10:56 AM ROLEXDAYTONA wrote:

> Living in Frankfurt/Main and shopping there, I can't find here any
> American brands, for Europe, American quality is almost like Made
> in Thailand.
> The only thing that remains in Europe from America, is trading houses
> with their complex deleveraged exotic trading desks, but soon this
> will be gone too.
> I have advise to Americans, buy only Made in USA goods, otherwise
> your country will become so poor and dangerous, with crime levels
> like in Al Capone times.

Is this why Harley Davidson has done so well in Europe? I'm not even a Harley fan and I know this.

Europe unfortunately has had their share of paper shuffling musical chairs. In case you missed it, the economy is a global problem, and the misuse of the financial markets by the stupid and greedy is universal.

The lesson here, as is often the case, is that overgeneralizations are easy to make as well as misleading. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121616-financial-collapse-a-lesson-from-the-20s?source=feed#comment-399014 399014
For those of you wondering why we don't just leave Afghanistan, is 9/11/2001 so far back? We are fighting a group of people that kill because they like to, and they like killing Americans most of all. Is that a good enough reason foryou? ]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 15:50:28 -0500
For those of you wondering why we don't just leave Afghanistan, is 9/11/2001 so far back? We are fighting a group of people that kill because they like to, and they like killing Americans most of all. Is that a good enough reason foryou? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120488-obama-s-housing-plan-what-will-it-really-accomplish?source=feed#comment-388467 388467 "Except Ron Paul. I know you didn't vote for him but that was because you thought he was wrong about the economy. "

Actually I did vote for him, as a write in. Pointless? Maybe, except one should vote for the person best suited for the job in their opinion. No one else was even close.

In his article Mr/ McCoy refers to $500k houses selling for $250k. This is in my opinion, a mis-statement, they are $250k houses bubbled up to $500k. They were and are $250k houses. ]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 11:43:57 -0500 "Except Ron Paul. I know you didn't vote for him but that was because you thought he was wrong about the economy. "

Actually I did vote for him, as a write in. Pointless? Maybe, except one should vote for the person best suited for the job in their opinion. No one else was even close.

In his article Mr/ McCoy refers to $500k houses selling for $250k. This is in my opinion, a mis-statement, they are $250k houses bubbled up to $500k. They were and are $250k houses. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120333-home-price-plunge-today-s-edition?source=feed#comment-386284 386284 Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:00:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120230-why-markets-dissed-the-geithner-plan?source=feed#comment-386269 386269
All of the comments so far, not to mention market reaction, have indicated the plans from the new administration are no better than those from the old. No details, little oversignt, and more shoving c^@p sandwiches down the throat of the public. ]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 16:51:27 -0500
All of the comments so far, not to mention market reaction, have indicated the plans from the new administration are no better than those from the old. No details, little oversignt, and more shoving c^@p sandwiches down the throat of the public. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119253-americans-will-be-refinanced-by-any-means-possible?source=feed#comment-381929 381929
As Wall street has created and paid themselves billions for shuffling paper with no real value added, homeowners have spent without regard for the value added proposition.

Almost all of these "schemes" to stimulate housing, save housing values, etc. are put forth with the goal of stimulating the economy. It would be much more effective to simply go back to being an economy where we ad value through productivity and working intelligently, not paper shuffling. ]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 02:30:18 -0500
As Wall street has created and paid themselves billions for shuffling paper with no real value added, homeowners have spent without regard for the value added proposition.

Almost all of these "schemes" to stimulate housing, save housing values, etc. are put forth with the goal of stimulating the economy. It would be much more effective to simply go back to being an economy where we ad value through productivity and working intelligently, not paper shuffling. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119308-radical-solution-to-housing-mess?source=feed#comment-381920 381920
The reason the real estate market is in the tank is simple, it was overbought. Why do so many try to complicate the matter? There is NOTHING that will change this, and every one of these solution proposed just spreads the loss. I did not live under a rock for ten years, I just lived at my means, and didn't make stupid decisions. And I'm mad as hell every time some yokel calls for a government bailout. ]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 02:01:20 -0500
The reason the real estate market is in the tank is simple, it was overbought. Why do so many try to complicate the matter? There is NOTHING that will change this, and every one of these solution proposed just spreads the loss. I did not live under a rock for ten years, I just lived at my means, and didn't make stupid decisions. And I'm mad as hell every time some yokel calls for a government bailout. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119125-the-future-of-california-s-housing-shortage-ahead?source=feed#comment-380525 380525
You are also assuming, like the author, that what's happened before will happen again. I'm not saying it won't, but you have no basis to say it will again. Ther net population is stagnant at best. Those that are coming in are fed into the "service" economy. They are gardeners and manual laborers. These people are not buying $700k houses, unless there are three families living in one. And the poster who commented on the manufacturing climate in California was dead on. There arew so many roadblocks to setting up a manufacturing business in California that most companies simply go elsewhere.

On Feb 08 06:02 PM Maryocon wrote:

> We ought to be very thankful it is not that easy to get a loan. Who
> needs 110% financing. That was the main reasons that we got into
> the economic fix we are in right now. The California real estate
> market was overheated for several years and would have slowed a lot
> sooner had not those crazy loans been around. The normal laws of
> supply and demand would have done it's job. Now the whole country
> is paying the price for those loans. It is normal after a deflationary
> period in the California housing market that prices stablize and
> then go up slowly. When it is cheaper to buy than it to rent, and
> in some places that is already true, the market will change and prices
> will increase. This whole cycle takes about 8 to 10 years.]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 02:00:23 -0500
You are also assuming, like the author, that what's happened before will happen again. I'm not saying it won't, but you have no basis to say it will again. Ther net population is stagnant at best. Those that are coming in are fed into the "service" economy. They are gardeners and manual laborers. These people are not buying $700k houses, unless there are three families living in one. And the poster who commented on the manufacturing climate in California was dead on. There arew so many roadblocks to setting up a manufacturing business in California that most companies simply go elsewhere.

On Feb 08 06:02 PM Maryocon wrote:

> We ought to be very thankful it is not that easy to get a loan. Who
> needs 110% financing. That was the main reasons that we got into
> the economic fix we are in right now. The California real estate
> market was overheated for several years and would have slowed a lot
> sooner had not those crazy loans been around. The normal laws of
> supply and demand would have done it's job. Now the whole country
> is paying the price for those loans. It is normal after a deflationary
> period in the California housing market that prices stablize and
> then go up slowly. When it is cheaper to buy than it to rent, and
> in some places that is already true, the market will change and prices
> will increase. This whole cycle takes about 8 to 10 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117699-crucell-great-chance-of-a-buyout?source=feed#comment-371766 371766 Sat, 31 Jan 2009 01:19:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117697-housing-affordability-surges?source=feed#comment-371300 371300
First off, in California the majority of sales are taking place in the low end of the market, which will skew the median lower. The housing price average would be a more meaningful number.

One other little published fact is that when houses are re-possessed they show up statistically as "sold". So the numbers showing increased sales are in fact not purchases by new owners who will occupy and pay for the houses. If the statistics accounted for these two false indicators the numbers would show a very different story. Again. ]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:48:10 -0500
First off, in California the majority of sales are taking place in the low end of the market, which will skew the median lower. The housing price average would be a more meaningful number.

One other little published fact is that when houses are re-possessed they show up statistically as "sold". So the numbers showing increased sales are in fact not purchases by new owners who will occupy and pay for the houses. If the statistics accounted for these two false indicators the numbers would show a very different story. Again. ]]>