markg

While Retail Sales Decline, FHA House Sales Soar

I recently bought a house with 3.5% down because I can easily afford the payments, I have quite a bit more in IRA's, and top credit. If you don't have all of these you will not get a loan. My after tax payment is right at what my house would rent for, even with the low down. And according to zillow, (arguable I know so don't bother) my house has appreciated 8% since I bought it.

I do not expect to flip this house, but live in it for many years. There are lots of people in the same boat that I am that are buying now. Frankly I don't really understand what so many people in SA get from being permanently bearish. The world may not end afterall. Get over it.

More Headwinds for Housing: This Time It's Prime Mortgages

"But, let's just continue to believe that housing and the economy will continue to get worse and worse. Heck, maybe, they'll be giving them away free in cereal boxes. It's a "lock," as somebody posted, right?

Relentless pessimism, persisting well past bottoms, is one of the biggest investment-opportunity killers."

Many people told me I was fruitloops in 2005 when I would make comments predicting a serious reckoning in the housing market. The bears are doing the same thing now. This is why it's good to be somewhat contrarian. This is also called making decisions based on information, not popular sentiment. Many opportunities ahead for those that think and don't blindly follow the herd.

Why House Prices Will Resume Their Fall

The Case Schiller index is, now repeat after me, "adjusted for inflation"

Obama has the $$ presses going full speed, interest rates are low. It does not take a genius to figure out that the way you stop the slide is to artificially raise the bar by de-valuing the dollar. Has real estate frequently been considered a hedge against inflation? Yes, so why do you all think there are people bidding against each other to buy houses in California. Not just the low end either. It's ok to be bearish. It's ok to be bullish too.

What one really needs to do in these uncertain times is to evaluate what is happening, not what you or someone else thinks should be happening. Thinking, not reacting, is required.

Expect Housing Prices to Continue to Rise

I'm not a bull or bear, but I will say that the bears make no better rational argument than the author.

There are several markets, southern California being one, where the after-tax payments will be very close to the monthly rental. This sort of agrees with the notion that houses should be purchased as a place you can live, and maybe a long term investment. And in case anyone cares to look, the affordability index is above 2002 levels.

Housing Bubble, The Sequel

Two points: 1. I hope all the people that voted for Obama because Bush was in the pocket of the banks are happy now. 2. Did anyone really expect the major financial institutes to do nothing while their assets are declining daily?

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Recovery in Real Estate Prices

Question, why do the two indices mentioned below have to move in phase? Do oil and soybeans have to move in phase? If you look back to the stock market indices, 2001 to 2002 was pretty bleak. Housing was starting to roll.

The only certainty is that the past does not guarantee the future.

On Jul 08 09:30 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> The S&P dropped to its 1997 level last March while the Case Shiler
> index is only at its 2002 or 2003 level. There neeeds to be a healthy
> correction before things can improve. This was just the beginning
> of the correction I am afraid. Then the story does not end here for
> the toxicity of the bank assets cause the commercial real estate
> is also going to crash. I am excited to see how the Wall-Street cheerleaders
> are gonna be calling the turnaroung when all of the pieces start
> to fall apart.

Navigating Today's Real Estate Market

73% of all sales this year have been under $400k
11% were from $401k to $500k
11% were from $501k to $700k
8% were over $700k

1st question; how does this compare to the total numbers of houses that would sell, (or would be valued) in this price range?

2nd question, do you have a single shred of facts to back up what you are saying? This is why realtors in general have zero credibility.

3rd, and last, a house selling for $325k even in Oceanside is going to be a complete fixer unless it's a condo.

Markets Are Working: CA Home Sales Increase +100% as Home Prices Fall

Why is it that these articles that keep citing increased home sales do not mention that when a house is taken back by the bank it is counted as a sale. I have posted this comment at least three times on SA but the authors of these articles looking for good news keep drinking the NAR kool-aid.

I follow the SoCal real estate market pretty closely, and the houses under $600k are starting to sell. if you follow individual houses, when they come up and they are priced right they do sell. The houses over $7ook are still sitting. This also leads to the lower medians posted.

When Will Housing Bottom?

The after tax comparison with rent is one of the more compelling arguments that a bottom is near, which is why I am buying after watching for 24 months. This comparison is not always made, but is the one that counts.
The place we are buying is at or below rent cost on an after tax basis. But as in all things, the individual deal counts alot too. The 45% figure for properties sold being distressed is highly indicitive also.

A Simple Housing Fix: Government Buy-Down of Mortgage Balances

We are a free market economy. Why is the mind-set shifting to bail out every person or instituition that made poor purchase decisions.

This proposal does NOTHING to stimulate an economy that needs more jobs, emerging technology, and productivity. This proposal is more of the same thinking that got us here in the first place, privatize profits, socialize losses. No thanks.

Obama's Housing Plan - What Will It Really Accomplish?

"Except Ron Paul. I know you didn't vote for him but that was because you thought he was wrong about the economy. "

Actually I did vote for him, as a write in. Pointless? Maybe, except one should vote for the person best suited for the job in their opinion. No one else was even close.

In his article Mr/ McCoy refers to $500k houses selling for $250k. This is in my opinion, a mis-statement, they are $250k houses bubbled up to $500k. They were and are $250k houses.

A Sign That Housing Is Approaching Bottom

"This is important.

At the bottom, banks blow out the inventory of foreclosed homes at almost any price just to get rid of properties on their books. When prices are low enough, demand comes back into the market, setting a floor at which prices can stabilize.

Such behavior is a sign that the bottoming process in housing has begun. This specific data point does not necessarily mean the bottom is in. Prices may still go lower. However, it signifies that the bottom in home prices in the United States is in sight, and most of the decline is over."

I would seriously question the validity of this statement. The reason? If you are sitting on property that has bottomed in value, and you are sure it will rise in price, wouldn't you sit on it a little longer?

Is Wells Fargo's Latest Memo a Sign Real Estate is Bottoming?

The comments about how fast the RE market is falling are usually not compared to how fast it went up, which was about the same rate for several years.

When other markets have a long run-up, a 50% correction isn't a surprise, why is it so for real estate?