kalasend's Comments

Understanding Chinese Statistical Data: The Devil Is in the Details

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 05:57:14 -0500

But don't you consider the scenario where 80% of the data was sourced from government press and was simply reworded at best?

On Dec 12 09:34 AM Ben Gee wrote:

> Believe your eyes, go to China and see for yourself. Can't do that?
> If 80% of reports are positive and 20% negetive, do I believe the
> 80% or 20%? How about in between? If 80% say China is growing at
> 8% or more and 20 % say China is growing 5% or less, the average
> is 6.5%.
> Or 7.5%, the weighted average.

How to Avoid the Next Galleon Group (or Madoff)

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:00:17 -0400

How to prevent? You balance greed with greed: whoever can provide sources leading to successful prosecution of financial fraud gets 50% of confiscated assets. Problem solved.

China: Is Retail Growth a Proxy for Consumption Growth?

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 02:38:15 -0400

Consumers outside of BJ/SH are also easier to buy in whatever economic theory the media feed them with. They are unexperienced to managing wealth. These people can wake up the next day and just turn into the most pessimistic savers, like they've used to do for hundreds of years.

Confidence from these people are pointless when you're talking about China where 90% of the people are under delusion about their country's greatness. These people are my friends, my relatives, my cousins and uncles and aunts. I don't just hear them. I can feel them. And I'm not optimistic.

On Sep 17 01:03 AM Shaun Rein wrote:

> Sales in Beijing is certainly not indicative of sales throughout
> China. According to our research, the most pessimistic consumers
> (aside from those in Guangdong) are in Beijing and Shanghai. Growth
> is being driven in 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier cities. Brands that have
> exposure there are doing fabulously well, while brands that only
> focused in BJ/ SH are getting hit harder. Also, some brands are
> taking a hit while others (usually the ones that are better branded)
> are doing very well so empty malls in Beijing mean nothing to overall
> retail sales. We have conducted what I think is the most exhaustive
> research into Chinese consumers... 15 cities in recent months ...

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:52:19 -0400

I am the U.K. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

I am Canada. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

I am Australia. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

I am [paste your favorite here]. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

On Sep 16 04:17 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

> And really, why should America be the world's policeman ? We saved
> the world from tyranny in WWII, and from communism. The world has
> a short memory.
>
> Perhaps the world no longer wants our services. In Iraq and Somalia,
> our soldiers got spat upon and their bodies dragged through the streets.
> If we must do "nation building" let nation building begin here in
> our own country.

China: Is Retail Growth a Proxy for Consumption Growth?

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:33:21 -0400

You do know that China is the most populated country in the world right?

On Sep 15 04:45 PM johnqh wrote:

> If you think the electric energy usage is a true reflection of the
> GDP, then China's GDP is severely under-reported, since its electric
> usage is about 75% of US, higher than the whole European Union, and
> 3X of Japan. All of the data is available on CIA World Factbook.
>
>
>

The Shanghai Market Calls the Tune

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:25:02 -0400

If you would doubt governments' ability to cook numbers while underlying conditions are bad, you need to study more history.

On Sep 04 09:57 PM rick12345 wrote:

> The cold war ended 20 years ago, while Liberal Imperialism died in
> the last century. Lick your wounds and move on.
> Subsequently, I wonder how they acheived 8% growth if they're getting
> it so wrong.

Risk from High Frequency and Algorithmic Trading Not as Big as Many Think

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:57:03 -0400

As someone working in "Algos", let me tell you this. The sheer goodness with computer trading is speed and accuracy. And speed and accuracy is the foundation for executing orders swiftly and at minimal impact to the market.

If there is a kind of Algos out there that were designed to manipulate market, I'm not aware of it (i suppose this sort of things need to be kept at low exposure, if there's exposure at all). But my take is that, market manipulation needs to be done slowly and seemingly uni-directional enough for the "audience" to see. And to do that you don't really need to use computer except for efficiency's sake (ie. more job done with less traders).

In summary, market manipulation need not be done with computers and computers are no enablers of market manipulation. Market manipulation, if done, would have been done regardless of the means to do it.

Housing Data Lifts the Markets

Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:57:19 -0400

What positive signs? That the home builders get high all of sudden?
Yeah, right. They know the market, don't they? Look at them doing so well to get ready for the inevitable housing bust.....................

On Mar 18 09:31 AM jasonjim wrote:

> Why do many people continue to search for everything negative that
> they can find, and continue to ignore or not accept everything positive
> that is going on. Human nature I guess, but depressing to read all
> of the time.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 23:13:22 -0400

Although this sounds comedic but it does carry some sense. You see, a big problem we have is that people trust government monitoring to do the job but government has historically been among the most incompetent, if not outright corrupted, organizations in any society.

On Mar 12 11:31 AM notsosmart wrote:

> since its all ponzi by lying ceo's.selfserving bod's,phony accounting,
> etc. the real ponzi should be made legal.that way you cant blame
> anybody but yourself if you fall for one.phony rated AAA paper is
> the same as made-off.the dumb-dumbs dont get it.

As Unemployment Grows, Tech Jobs Hang On

Sat, 07 Mar 2009 12:59:21 -0500

I suggest you make friend with someone holding an H1B visa before you say something about them.

I hold H1B visa. I attended college in the US, worked in Silicon Valley for 8 years. My starting salary, in 2001, was $70k which is by no means lower than average. Laws forbid companies from paying lower to foreign worker.

I paid the same tax rate as any other US citizen, without being able to use allowances because my dependents (parents) are not in the States. I am not protected by any social benefits and if I lose my job I will be deported. But my 401k will have to stay otherwise I got taxed on that as well.

And talking about us taking technology jobs away from US citizens? Well, you know what I can say about that, don't you? You don't need myth buster to clear this one out for you.

I know where you're coming from, but you need to learn the difference between the manufacturing and technology sectors.

On Mar 07 09:20 AM TeresaE wrote:

> How many of the "added" IT jobs went went to American citizens.

>
> When you look at the DOL's info over the past 10 years, we add fewer
> jobs in IT than we import in H1-B visa workers.
>
> So, how is it there is an American worker shortage when the number
> of jobs added is LESS than the foreigners we import to drive down
> wages?
>
> "High tech" jobs are being sold out to the lowest bidder, just like
> manufacturing.
>
> And, just like health care and teaching already is.
>
> Finally, I firmly believe that every new government job today is
> going to cost the private economy 2 jobs tomorrow. Just how will
> the government (state, local and federal) survive when their paychecks
> are the only ones?
>
> 100% tax on government workers wouldn't even cover it.
>
> Demand smaller government now, or realize they will be the only game
> in town for decades.

Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market?

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:28:12 -0500

Agreed and timing is everything.
I can foretell with certain there's going to be world war 3. I know I am right but I can be wrong for my entire lifetime.

On Mar 02 07:58 PM jeerio wrote:

> Rogers' timing is usually off at first, then he gets it right the
> second time he approaches, al la TBT. he also has his own listed
> ag fund, RJA, so that's what he buys when he buys ag.
>
> all these guys are right and all of them are wrong, usually just
> a timing thing which in times like these are mostly a matter of luck.
> i doubt even the most 'short-minded' would have said we'd be down
> 24% for the year on March 2nd.
>

Three Urban Legends on Wall Street Today

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 21:46:04 -0500

Speaking of paradox, you've just given an example:
4) "...it is always different, and yet the same"
5) "...no, it will different this time, the giant won't fall"

On Feb 19 08:09 AM patio wrote:

> 4. "It's different this time." The great paradox is, it is always
> different, and yet the same. Cycles, although different in amplitude
> and wavelength, are still just cycles.
> 5. " The US is kaput, the Chinese century is about to begin, if it
> isn't there already". Yes, we have some issues to work through. But
> consider:
> - US GDP is $14T, vs. world GDP of $54T
> - #2 is Japan, at $4T; I'd say we're still pretty much the big dog
> for a spell, since we're bigger than Japan, China, Germany, and UK
> combied
> - our industrial production, thats over, right? Nope, $3T, over twice
> the size of #2 Japan.
> - Oil? USA produces 8.3 mb/d, lower than 9.7 Russia and 10.7, but
> still...
> We import a lot of oil, but because our industrial production is
> huge. Oh, we're second only to Russia in natural gas
> - our population density is very low; we have lots of room left

>
> - our military does cost us a lot, but we control the world's oceans,
> never been done in history prior to us.
> - The US will dominate this century, no one else compares to us,
> flaws and all- and they all know it
> ( Thanks, George Friedman )

Three Potholes on the Road to Economic Recovery

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 05:32:41 -0500

5 years of battle life and unable to find job; you don't need a link, you need sense.

On Feb 16 09:36 PM tclwrap wrote:

> EDT, you mentioned
>
> "Returning U.S. troops are reportedly being riot trained now. Somebody
> in Washington is not as stupid as they appear to be most of the time."
>
>
> This is news to me. Would you share a link?
>
> Many thanks.
>

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:39:16 -0500

I don't know about yours, but it would be a 100 years before my corp will use open office or Linux on desktops.
Unless you believe those single family or student copies make up big chunk of MS revenues....which is just not true.

On Feb 13 12:27 PM Drew Horn wrote:

> If I were Bill Gates, I would sell ASAP! The of software isn't MS
> Office or Windows, its cloud computing. Look at the freeware that
> is out there, open office, Google's apps, Yahoo, etc. Except for
> security concerns, who needs it. All the software an average person
> needs is free. Even the success of Apple computer will have a limited
> life. With cloud computing and a high speed ISP you don't need a
> lot of computer.

Buffett Metric Doesn't Say It's Time to Buy

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 01:07:31 -0500

How about saying that Warren Buffet will be buying when equities are either outrageously low-priced OR when his country's fortune is on the verge of total collapse?

Or, take this, you're in whorehouse with a suitcase of cash....except that the building is on fire, doors are locked and you know the chicks there ain't capable of putting it out. In both cases you'd be a consumer anyways....

Buy American = Goodbye Global Friends

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 22:23:30 -0500

A friend of mine used to run a toy factory in China and is(or was) rich. Educate me on what he could have bought from the US?
Cars? The Germans and Japanese made better ones.
Electronics? Yeah, he did buy quite a lot from Apple but how many Apple-equivalents are there in the States?

On Jan 30 09:17 AM ag2009 wrote:

> Dear Tom,
>
> America is running the largest trade deficit in world history. The
> U.S. should be the last country accused of protectionism.
>
> The problem is that other countries take the money Americans spend
> and hoard/lend it, rather than use it to buy products from America.
> This is not sustainable.
>
> At some point, either the world needs to stop acting as miser and
> usurer to America's spender, or America will have to stop buying
> their stuff.
>
> I wrote about this here: ssrn.com/abstract=1332...
>
> AG

Deflation Is Mostly Behind Us

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:00:59 -0500

I just skimmed through the titles of this author's articles. Sounds like a blind-folded contrarian bull to me.

Obama's 'Buy American' Plan May Meet China's Export-Led Growth in 2009

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:32:24 -0500

The US has some very tangible stuff to help its export and at the same time none of the other countries in the world can possibly get hurt in terms of export: "technology".

And i'm not talking about Internets and IPod, etc.. I'm talking aviation, aeronautics, advanced materials. If they are willing to sell at the most 5% of what Pentagon has been keeping secret for decades, the US would be out of recession real quick.

Problem is, can they afford to, in the name of "national security"?

Jack Lifton: The Technology Metals Age

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 06:13:09 -0500

On Jan 07 08:24 PM David Lentz wrote:
> And what's that about electric motors in cellphones? ("everything
> that’s got a small motor in it (a cell phone, Blackberry, etc.)"
> ???)
>
What do you think is working when your cell phone vibrates? A tiny motor...connected with an uneven weight.

What Do We Need In 2009? More Failure

Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:10:22 -0500

On Jan 01 04:13 PM 303820 wrote:
> This guy makes me sick...
> Wal mart imports 80%of what it sales from china...it forces it's
> suppliers to move their operations to slave labor countries like
> china, Honduras, and Mexico. Eliminating American jobs.
>
> Toyota and Honda import 55% of their cars from Korea, japan, Mexico
> and Canada.
>
> Nike and Reebok import 100% of their products from the likes china,
> India, hong Kong and Bangladesh.
>
> These so called success stories are destroying America's middle class
> and its purchasing power...
>
You have to realize that for a business, staying American does not equate "success". When potential success lies outside of your living place, you have to go out of the door to grab it. This is captialism. Feeling sick does not help.

The Case for Making Bigger Cars

Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:20:03 -0500

On Dec 08 01:10 PM SuomiAl wrote:
> Well, let's take Porsche. It has made the bulk of its profit growth
> in the last few years not from the slow-growth and niche sports car
> market, but by making overpriced, gas-guzzling SUVs that, until the
> gasoline price spike, were sold in relatively high numbers to a subset
> of Americans who didn't know any better and had lots of money to
> burn. Surprise! Now they are planning the world's ugliest sedan.
> They are doing the exact opposite of what you advocate, Felix, which
> is trying to be all things to all people.

You only got the surface of the story. Yes, Porsche starts making money after switching on production lines for SUVs. But it's not the SUV that earn them the money. It's the brand name, the type of cult that surrounds Porsche over the years (namely, the performance, reliability and technical excellence) that earn them the money. So at the end, it IS dedication that wins the biggest. You have to remember, no matter what type of vehicle it is, at the end of the day, it is the exact same exercise of driving a 4-wheeled machine. So if you are able to provide superior quality to that very core human activity, you will be appreciated.

Making the Big Switch from Mutual Funds to ETFs

Mon, 25 Feb 2008 02:20:13 -0500

Not trying to be picky about words here, but this is pure BS:
"I've heard that one of the country's largest banks just got its second computer recently"