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  • Renminbi to Replace the Dollar as King of Currencies? Not Likely  [View article]
    To become a reserve currency means the country has to consume/import stuff and therefore export its currency. How can that be the case so long as China is still a major exporter of goods?

    Also if the world suddenly uses RMB for transacting that would push up demand for RMB, which spells rapid, disorderly appreciation of RMB. That would knockout out China's export sector quickly too.

    Summary is, the RMB-as-world-reserve gangs are suggesting a scenario even Chinese gov wouldn't want to see.

    IMO, the day when China turns from surplus country to deficit country HEALTHILY(meaning without a hard landing of its economy) is harder to come by than the demise of USD's reserve status.
    Mar 7, 2011. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is the Chinese Real Estate Bubble?  [View article]
    My rule of thumb when reading articles on SA: read the author's profile before considering his/her credibility.
    Mar 7, 2011. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did China Just Ring a Bell?  [View article]
    I think the biggest BS on this page is your comment
    Jan 10, 2011. 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Risks to China's Economy in 2011  [View article]
    CE, read this author's articles, or just the titles. And you will know the quality in his messages.
    Jan 10, 2011. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Risks to China's Economy in 2011  [View article]
    Construction, landscaping & gardening is investment, not consumption growth that China needs badly. You are convoluted.
    Jan 10, 2011. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bubble: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet?  [View article]
    It is worth to note that Japan's technical development never ceased during the lost decades.
    While economy can go backward, technology rarely does so because technology means higher productivity which is always helpful and desired regardless of the economy.

    Besides, if there's anything Japan has shown in two decades, it is that economic back-stepping does NOT equal diminished standard of living for the entire population. It means, precisely, that wealth disparity will increase.

    In other words, when the China bubble is pricked, a small(and powerful) group will continue their prosperity and the majority others will find their "China dreams" more distant than they had thought(if they ever still think the dreams can be realized in a lifetime).
    Sep 28, 2010. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bubble: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet?  [View article]
    You're right until oil price shoot past $150.
    Sep 28, 2010. 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pairs Trade: VIX Futures Curve  [View article]
    Betting on the future curve to compress does make sense, theoretically. Such compression can be due to short term volatility spike or collapse in expectation of long term vols.

    But again, roll-yield is a biatch. So I wouldn't do it with Oct as the front leg. Nov or Dec would be a safer bet.
    Sep 23, 2010. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes From Hong Kong: Shanghai on the Verge of a Breakout  [View article]
    BG, was your PC hijacked? That comment is so non-BG style
    Sep 14, 2010. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guo Jin, Min Tui - The State Advances, The Private Sector Retreats  [View article]
    Financial illiteracy has been, is and will always be the ingredients for financial distress.
    Sep 6, 2010. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays' Latest ETN: S&P 500… With a Somewhat Complicated Twist  [View article]
    VIX goes up when S&P goes south. Volatility as defined mathematically can be down while stocks go down, but not for VIX.
    VIX tracks Implied Vol on S&P options which always goes up when the underlying goes down.
    Sep 6, 2010. 03:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Data Points on China Real Estate  [View article]
    That's exactly the point I've been making all along.
    If thick down payments protect China from a house price collapse(and that's a big IF), Discovery Channel can make another episode of extincted creatures: the Chinese consumers

    Moreover, that 30% is not just the life savings of one family, it is the life savings of 3 families: the couple and their parents. The aftermath is simply scary to imagine.
    Jul 25, 2010. 11:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Data Points on China Real Estate  [View article]
    Ben Gee, if HK and China were two economically independent regions, your arguments would carry more credit. You seem to discount the fact that HK's property market scene after the 1997's collapse has been much affected by China's liquidity boom.
    Most notably, the luxury houses appreciate much quicker than the relatively affordable ones. And with long period of rising prices on the mid to high end, the lower end housing picked up too.
    And if that's not convincing enough, come to HK and pick up brochures for the new houses (or rather, flats). The new developments are predominantly high end (or high end wannabe's) housing. The idea is simple: HK's developers want to suck as much liquidity from the mainland as possible.
    Jul 25, 2010. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogoff Sees No Double-Dip but Beginning of China Property 'Collapse'  [View article]
    You have just found the best way for declaring yourself as clueless.
    I know I won't be reading your articles/comments.
    Jul 7, 2010. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Week: VXX vs. VIX  [View article]
    Trading based on contango and roll cost is all good until spikes like what we're seeing come along. Periods like this can wipe out a good chunk of previous cumulative gains (say, from Feb till lately).

    Have you researched into any indicators/alerts that should hopefully signal an exit?
    May 5, 2010. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment