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kalasend

kalasend
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  • Pricking the China Housing Bubble [View article]
    Agreed. When China RE catches a cold, there may not be liquidity crisis of the same magnitude(as in the US). But what's certain is bye-bye domestic consumption growth.

    And last I checked......domestic consumption is China's hope for future.
    Apr 22 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pricking the China Housing Bubble [View article]
    Dragon master, are you trolling?
    Apr 21 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pricking the China Housing Bubble [View article]
    Ben Gee, you just make yourself funnier by the day. The Chinese gov is busy fixing a bubble while you claim none. Seriously you may be confident with Chinese gov's ability, but get your facts right. You're losing credibility every time you speak.
    Apr 21 04:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pricking the China Housing Bubble [View article]
    @Dragon Master
    Many Japanese in the 80's thought and acted like you do. What gives?
    Apr 21 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Will Pay for China’s Bad Loans? [View article]
    You are pointless
    Apr 14 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Equities With VIX Futures [View article]
    VXX keeps a proportioned holdings on front and 2nd month VIX futures, such that VXX roughly tracks VIX future value that is 30 days to expiration. (ie. if we are half way between expire dates, then VXX = 50% x front + 50% x 2nd).
    VXX is not meant for long term hold but if Jan/Feb serves as any example, current level is good time to get onboard.
    Apr 1 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX ETF Volume Picks Up [View article]
    You can read about VIX index calculation on CBOE.
    But in general, it's an aggregate of SPX otm option's IV's, which is why it fluctuates a lot.
    Mar 13 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX ETF Volume Picks Up [View article]
    Fool!
    If you've been trading VIX contango, keep quiet!
    Mar 11 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX ETF Volume Picks Up [View article]
    When you trade VXX, you should be firmly in the know that your underlying is VIX 2 near month futures, NOT the index.

    Now why would somebody be foolish enough to price their futures according to daily VIX fluctuations when historically (and I would suggest logically) VIX would shake off the big movements in a couple of days??

    If you want to track VIX as close as possible, trade the front month future
    Mar 11 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Housing Bubble Spells Trouble [View article]
    flying snail,
    I live in HK too and am interested in how you come up with the 12-18 months time. Did you compare current time with previous cycles? Or using other macro factors?
    Mar 11 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Housing Bubble Spells Trouble [View article]
    Ben Gee,
    HK housing prices went boom-bang-boom during 1997-1998 and did not pick up until after 2003's SARS trough. Even now, the lower class, suburban houses barely went back to pre-1997 levels (which still means huge loss considering inflation).
    The insane appreciation in recent years has a lot to do with mainland Chinese sending cash into HK. So you are in fact witnessing the same housing boom (or rather, loose credit) from Chinese banks.
    But you're right in that housing speculation is in ethnic Chinese blood. There's seldom times when housing is undervalued in Chinese cities, unless there's huge impact to the market(Asian financial crisis, SARS, 2008/early-2009 for what I can remember...)
    Mar 10 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Currency Reserves Have Limited Use in a Domestic Crisis or Collapse [View article]
    "young" - Soon they will not be. Avg age is projected to go up starting 2015
    "smart" - Okay, I am Chinese and I agree ;-)
    "energetic" - Japanese were energetic before they experienced 20 yrs of grinding.

    "excellent managements" - Chinese enterprises so far (decades since they "open" their econ) exhibit nothing more than the power of using cheap labors. Have you seen innovation from China yet? Has any SOE's emerged from heavy internal competitions yet? What's excellent about the mgmt?

    "world-class infrastructures" - If you're willing to pour investment, anybody can build tons of infrastructure. You should be asking, "are they gonna use it well?"
    Well let me tell you, their newly built (and more planned) high-speed rails already turned previously built airports into piles of trash.

    "fundamentals are solid" - fundamentals are NOT solid: aging pop, deeply distrusted gov, over-investment hoping for better tomorrow, houses priced with richer future in mind. (okay, corruption is no-problem because US & A rivals...)
    Feb 26 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America’s Banker Calls in Loans - Is China Losing Confidence? [View article]
    Day-dream less
    Feb 21 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Predictions for China in 2010 [View article]
    All well said except you're making assumption that the CCP leaders are a tad smarter than their western counterparts. But why would you think so? The past few decades of rapid economic growth was supported by low labor cost, which is something that any underdeveloped country possesses.

    Really, the chinese regime's economic wisdom has not been tested. It will soon be, though.
    Feb 21 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Plan for Economic Conquest [View article]
    "Let's say Chinese consumers start buying large amounts of gold in exchange for yuan. The yuan will be deposited into Chinese banks, which creates bank reserves that can be used to increase lending, which adds liquidity."

    So, with all this talk about China having to grow its domestic consumers, the regime is implementing policy to suck capital out of citizens and lend that to businesses which are likely going to use the loans for real estate speculation?


    "Incidentally, people forget that China has a lot of experience with double-digit growth. In the 1950s, its GDP grew in excess of 10% annually and actually topped 20% in 1958. In the 1960s, there were four years in a row in which growth ranged from 10-17%. "

    You sound as if those periods were bright enough as indication for continuous success of China. Unbelievable !!
    Feb 11 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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