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kalasend

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  • Chanos on China's Property Bubble [View article]
    My fellow compatriots, as I understand ourselves, will seal their purses as soon as they lost 20% of their equity in the house. And somebody said China needs to grow its domestic consumption, I heard? Tell me how you can talk a person into spending more when he just lost something that's worth 10 years of savings, and that's his savings + his parents' + his spouse's parents'.
    Feb 10, 2010. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China on the Way Down: More Trouble Brewing for U.S. Stocks [View article]
    The gov can say "buy domestic", and it works....when consumers spend. Whether spending can continue rising (take note: NOT just sustain, but rising), that is worth the pondering.
    Feb 4, 2010. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China on the Way Down: More Trouble Brewing for U.S. Stocks [View article]
    All well said except that you don't have many Chinese friends.

    I could stop here but let me tell you more. The China regime does not throw promises at its people. It throws masquerade, made up of GDP numbers, illusory wealth and prosperity. True, no Chinese hold faith in its gov but they hold faith in what they see today, til they see something else.....
    Feb 3, 2010. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Stellar Excuses to Stay Stubbornly Bullish [View article]
    "Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported the historical chances are about one in four that a 5% dip will turn into a 10% drop, while chances are only about one in ten that it turns into a 20% swoon. The historical studies the Journal reviewed suggested current bull market gains are likely slowing, but not stopping."

    I haven't read the report but the statement just doesn't make sense to me. First, you have to go through 5% down in order reach 10% or 20% down. Bigger market corrections are by definition rarer than smaller ones, so what's the point of such kind of data aggregation?

    Moreover, did the report show how likely 5% up would lead to 10%-20% up? Last time I checked, last year we had 5% up leading to 30-40% up, or 10% up leading to more, or...this line of argument is simply meaningless.
    Feb 3, 2010. 08:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview with a Chinese Real Estate Insider [View article]
    I disagree on two fronts:
    First, RE bubble is definitely not contained in Beijing only. I don't know why Shanghai would miss your radar so obviously, and, to a lesser(but not much) extent, southern rich cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are all at serious over-supply, IMO. And yesterday i read that the RE binge has spread to the Hainang province/island, which never in my lifetime I will believe those housing prices are supported by demand.

    Secondly, that China being less leveraged is just plain wrong. If you go by western accounting, the small number of leverages may be correct. But, what you don't see is: all the shadow loans (with just-below-usury-defin... rates); less/unprofitable factories turned into RE flippers using loans collateralized with the factories/equipment; young couples buying with financial supports from both parents, people using larger portion of their income on housing(> 2/3). In general, people faced with greed and fear(of not being able to buy later) use all their channels to receive funding.

    We will not easily see the magnitude of these types of "leverage". But when asset prices fall significantly, the ripple effect will be enormous and China can say goodbye to boosting domestic consumption. The gov can't even find a way to bail out (what can you do? pay directly to the moms and pops of the newly weds? Or inject liquidity into seemingly unrelated biz? Or buy up loans from usurer?)
    Feb 1, 2010. 09:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's 'This Time Is Different' Syndrome [View article]
    Absolutely.
    Lately I've thinking about this: If bubble cycles have any correlation to human greed, then imagine a people who, over a few decades(and I'm excluding the equally bitter time before the current Chicom regime), has been watching the western world prospered. Chinese people's greed was like a fully compressed spring just before it's economy opened up. With that in mind only a fool can not see crisis forming.
    Jan 18, 2010. 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's 'This Time Is Different' Syndrome [View article]
    This article's no smoke screen. There are people who's interested in knowing China, not like someone who wasted his own time reading an article then whined about his time wasted.
    Jan 18, 2010. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
    " Too much leverage, not high prices, caused the problems with real estate in Dubai and the U.S. "

    You are saying that if I didn't borrow to buy a house, I wouldn't give a damm to paper loss. Educate me please, but I don't think that's true of human nature.

    At most, I think the fall out in real estate in China will not have the kind of ripple effect like the States. But such fall out will definitely cast negative wealth effect on people, thus slowing(if not choking) the much needed domestic consumption growth. And I am discounting loans from the shadow banking sector (read usury) which is known to be behind lot of real estate speculation in China
    Jan 12, 2010. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Chinese Statistical Data: The Devil Is in the Details [View article]
    But don't you consider the scenario where 80% of the data was sourced from government press and was simply reworded at best?


    On Dec 12 09:34 AM Ben Gee wrote:

    > Believe your eyes, go to China and see for yourself. Can't do that?
    > If 80% of reports are positive and 20% negetive, do I believe the
    > 80% or 20%? How about in between? If 80% say China is growing at
    > 8% or more and 20 % say China is growing 5% or less, the average
    > is 6.5%.
    > Or 7.5%, the weighted average.
    Dec 14, 2009. 05:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Avoid the Next Galleon Group (or Madoff) [View article]
    How to prevent? You balance greed with greed: whoever can provide sources leading to successful prosecution of financial fraud gets 50% of confiscated assets. Problem solved.
    Oct 22, 2009. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Is Retail Growth a Proxy for Consumption Growth? [View article]
    Consumers outside of BJ/SH are also easier to buy in whatever economic theory the media feed them with. They are unexperienced to managing wealth. These people can wake up the next day and just turn into the most pessimistic savers, like they've used to do for hundreds of years.

    Confidence from these people are pointless when you're talking about China where 90% of the people are under delusion about their country's greatness. These people are my friends, my relatives, my cousins and uncles and aunts. I don't just hear them. I can feel them. And I'm not optimistic.


    On Sep 17 01:03 AM Shaun Rein wrote:

    > Sales in Beijing is certainly not indicative of sales throughout
    > China. According to our research, the most pessimistic consumers
    > (aside from those in Guangdong) are in Beijing and Shanghai. Growth
    > is being driven in 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier cities. Brands that have
    > exposure there are doing fabulously well, while brands that only
    > focused in BJ/ SH are getting hit harder. Also, some brands are
    > taking a hit while others (usually the ones that are better branded)
    > are doing very well so empty malls in Beijing mean nothing to overall
    > retail sales. We have conducted what I think is the most exhaustive
    > research into Chinese consumers... 15 cities in recent months ...
    Sep 21, 2009. 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...' [View article]
    I am the U.K. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

    I am Canada. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

    I am Australia. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".

    I am [paste your favorite here]. And DANG, if only I had comparable military strength I would have front-run the US in "saving the world" from evils, so that my children and grandchildren could reap the economic benefits of a "saved world".


    On Sep 16 04:17 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

    > And really, why should America be the world's policeman ? We saved
    > the world from tyranny in WWII, and from communism. The world has
    > a short memory.
    >
    > Perhaps the world no longer wants our services. In Iraq and Somalia,
    > our soldiers got spat upon and their bodies dragged through the streets.
    > If we must do "nation building" let nation building begin here in
    > our own country.
    Sep 17, 2009. 02:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Is Retail Growth a Proxy for Consumption Growth? [View article]
    You do know that China is the most populated country in the world right?


    On Sep 15 04:45 PM johnqh wrote:

    > If you think the electric energy usage is a true reflection of the
    > GDP, then China's GDP is severely under-reported, since its electric
    > usage is about 75% of US, higher than the whole European Union, and
    > 3X of Japan. All of the data is available on CIA World Factbook.
    >
    >
    >
    Sep 15, 2009. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shanghai Market Calls the Tune [View article]
    If you would doubt governments' ability to cook numbers while underlying conditions are bad, you need to study more history.


    On Sep 04 09:57 PM rick12345 wrote:

    > The cold war ended 20 years ago, while Liberal Imperialism died in
    > the last century. Lick your wounds and move on.
    > Subsequently, I wonder how they acheived 8% growth if they're getting
    > it so wrong.
    Sep 6, 2009. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk from High Frequency and Algorithmic Trading Not as Big as Many Think [View article]
    As someone working in "Algos", let me tell you this. The sheer goodness with computer trading is speed and accuracy. And speed and accuracy is the foundation for executing orders swiftly and at minimal impact to the market.

    If there is a kind of Algos out there that were designed to manipulate market, I'm not aware of it (i suppose this sort of things need to be kept at low exposure, if there's exposure at all). But my take is that, market manipulation needs to be done slowly and seemingly uni-directional enough for the "audience" to see. And to do that you don't really need to use computer except for efficiency's sake (ie. more job done with less traders).

    In summary, market manipulation need not be done with computers and computers are no enablers of market manipulation. Market manipulation, if done, would have been done regardless of the means to do it.
    Aug 30, 2009. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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