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  • Interest Rates: The Darkest Black Swan Ahead? [View article]
    That's not the definition of a "black swan event". Black swan is something completely unexpected. It is the unknown unknown.
    That rates will go up is a known unknown at best. IMO, the casualties and any consequential fallouts from rising rates could create those black swans (yes, plurals).
    Aug 20 09:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Data Points on China Real Estate [View article]
    That's exactly the point I've been making all along.
    If thick down payments protect China from a house price collapse(and that's a big IF), Discovery Channel can make another episode of extincted creatures: the Chinese consumers

    Moreover, that 30% is not just the life savings of one family, it is the life savings of 3 families: the couple and their parents. The aftermath is simply scary to imagine.
    Jul 25 11:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Stellar Excuses to Stay Stubbornly Bullish [View article]
    "Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported the historical chances are about one in four that a 5% dip will turn into a 10% drop, while chances are only about one in ten that it turns into a 20% swoon. The historical studies the Journal reviewed suggested current bull market gains are likely slowing, but not stopping."

    I haven't read the report but the statement just doesn't make sense to me. First, you have to go through 5% down in order reach 10% or 20% down. Bigger market corrections are by definition rarer than smaller ones, so what's the point of such kind of data aggregation?

    Moreover, did the report show how likely 5% up would lead to 10%-20% up? Last time I checked, last year we had 5% up leading to 30-40% up, or 10% up leading to more, or...this line of argument is simply meaningless.
    Feb 3 08:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Market's Run Isn't Over Just Yet [View article]
    ZH has been implying the world's in delusion for 4 years now.
    ZH is great with very insightful news and data. But what they present often don't manifest until a random later day.
    Biggest problem with too much ZH reading is that, if you let it paint a mental picture of the market, it harms your portfolio.
    Mar 6 08:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview with a Chinese Real Estate Insider [View article]
    I disagree on two fronts:
    First, RE bubble is definitely not contained in Beijing only. I don't know why Shanghai would miss your radar so obviously, and, to a lesser(but not much) extent, southern rich cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are all at serious over-supply, IMO. And yesterday i read that the RE binge has spread to the Hainang province/island, which never in my lifetime I will believe those housing prices are supported by demand.

    Secondly, that China being less leveraged is just plain wrong. If you go by western accounting, the small number of leverages may be correct. But, what you don't see is: all the shadow loans (with just-below-usury-defin... rates); less/unprofitable factories turned into RE flippers using loans collateralized with the factories/equipment; young couples buying with financial supports from both parents, people using larger portion of their income on housing(> 2/3). In general, people faced with greed and fear(of not being able to buy later) use all their channels to receive funding.

    We will not easily see the magnitude of these types of "leverage". But when asset prices fall significantly, the ripple effect will be enormous and China can say goodbye to boosting domestic consumption. The gov can't even find a way to bail out (what can you do? pay directly to the moms and pops of the newly weds? Or inject liquidity into seemingly unrelated biz? Or buy up loans from usurer?)
    Feb 1 09:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Unemployment Grows, Tech Jobs Hang On [View article]
    I suggest you make friend with someone holding an H1B visa before you say something about them.

    I hold H1B visa. I attended college in the US, worked in Silicon Valley for 8 years. My starting salary, in 2001, was $70k which is by no means lower than average. Laws forbid companies from paying lower to foreign worker.

    I paid the same tax rate as any other US citizen, without being able to use allowances because my dependents (parents) are not in the States. I am not protected by any social benefits and if I lose my job I will be deported. But my 401k will have to stay otherwise I got taxed on that as well.

    And talking about us taking technology jobs away from US citizens? Well, you know what I can say about that, don't you? You don't need myth buster to clear this one out for you.

    I know where you're coming from, but you need to learn the difference between the manufacturing and technology sectors.

    On Mar 07 09:20 AM TeresaE wrote:

    > How many of the "added" IT jobs went went to American citizens.<br/>
    > When you look at the DOL's info over the past 10 years, we add fewer
    > jobs in IT than we import in H1-B visa workers.
    > So, how is it there is an American worker shortage when the number
    > of jobs added is LESS than the foreigners we import to drive down
    > wages?
    > "High tech" jobs are being sold out to the lowest bidder, just like
    > manufacturing.
    > And, just like health care and teaching already is.
    > Finally, I firmly believe that every new government job today is
    > going to cost the private economy 2 jobs tomorrow. Just how will
    > the government (state, local and federal) survive when their paychecks
    > are the only ones?
    > 100% tax on government workers wouldn't even cover it.
    > Demand smaller government now, or realize they will be the only game
    > in town for decades.
    Mar 7 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The High Cost Of Backstopping The Wal-Mart Mini Crash [View article]
    "...probably assume some relationship exists"

    Do yourself a favor. Review the careers of these Fed officials and bank officers. At the minimum, these people's paths are so intertwined I would have to be a retard to think that there's nothing more than paths crossed.
    Feb 21 02:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The PBOC cuts bank reserve ratio requirements by 50 basis points to 20.5%, effective February 24, reports the WSJ. It's the second easing of policy in less than 90 days.  [View news story]
    You think nobody talks like you did about Japan back in 1980s?
    Feb 19 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chanos Finally Getting It Right On China? [View article]
    Why is everybody referring to a Chinese real estate "soft landing" as if it is a good thing?
    A soft landing that essentially locks families' life savings into the house for years(if not a decade or two) would be helpful to China's desperately needed consumption driven growth model? How do you like to add in some recessionary impacts from the Euroland plus US & A?

    Things just don't add up. Whether hard or soft landing, I think China faces a lot more than just a speed bump.

    Chanos is an investor, not any Joe Schmoe analyst. When he talks, he markets his book so depending on his positions he over-talks and under-talks. His words are not to be gauged. All that is clear is, someone as astute as Chanos has not altered his bearishness on China.
    Dec 13 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is the Chinese Real Estate Bubble? [View article]
    My rule of thumb when reading articles on SA: read the author's profile before considering his/her credibility.
    Mar 7 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did China Just Ring a Bell? [View article]
    I think the biggest BS on this page is your comment
    Jan 10 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Risks to China's Economy in 2011 [View article]
    CE, read this author's articles, or just the titles. And you will know the quality in his messages.
    Jan 10 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Risks to China's Economy in 2011 [View article]
    Construction, landscaping & gardening is investment, not consumption growth that China needs badly. You are convoluted.
    Jan 10 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bubble: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet? [View article]
    It is worth to note that Japan's technical development never ceased during the lost decades.
    While economy can go backward, technology rarely does so because technology means higher productivity which is always helpful and desired regardless of the economy.

    Besides, if there's anything Japan has shown in two decades, it is that economic back-stepping does NOT equal diminished standard of living for the entire population. It means, precisely, that wealth disparity will increase.

    In other words, when the China bubble is pricked, a small(and powerful) group will continue their prosperity and the majority others will find their "China dreams" more distant than they had thought(if they ever still think the dreams can be realized in a lifetime).
    Sep 28 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bubble: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet? [View article]
    You're right until oil price shoot past $150.
    Sep 28 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment