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When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!

I am not saying solar isn't relevant, but I am trying to say that there is a maximum practical limit to its penetration in the energy market. That limit applies to all forms of non-firm power.

You also assume that integrating solar power into the grid is non-trivial, which it is not! Injecting power to the grid requires a transformation to AC power, as well as phase regulation and synchronization with the grid. This requires control electronics, transformers, etc. The distribution problem or 'micro-scale' power concept has not yet been solved, and it is likely that appropriate control electronics will keep solar penetration constrained to either DC applications or large installations.

When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!

Perhaps you do not fully understand how the electric grid works. Supply and demand must be balanced. Any difference is the ACE (Area Control Error). Ideally this is always zero.

So lets say the sun suddenly stops shining, or the wind stops blowing. The ACE swings negative because demand remains constant, and other power must be put into the system, or there will be blackouts. That power must be FIRM and SPINNING, meaning that is reliable power, and its quickly available (within 5-minutes). Its also has to be quickly responding power. Nukes don't work for this, because they do not change their generation quickly. Some coal plants can do it, and combined-cycle and combustion turbines are excellent. Pumped storage also works.

So like I said, unless you have a massive increase in storage, you're going to need coal or gas-fired units online all the time. And like I said, when you exceed 20% of the total generation as non-firm power, you create huge problems trying to balance the grid. It can tolerate a 1GW swing, but not a whole lot more.

When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!

Jack: You continue to neglect the fact that solar is non-firm power. Granted, it does have the advantage of being coincident with peak loads, but ultimately when a generation portfolio exceeds 20% non-firm power, it leads to massive problems in regulating the ACE. Unless you propose building massive storage facilities, which are of equally massive cost, renewables cannot comprise the bulk of our power needs.

When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!

I'm sorry buy you're completely wrong on the solar argument. Its not an apples to apples comparison with coal because coal provides FIRM power, solar does not. The cost differential on the open market between a firm and non-firm product is material, as well as the ancillary services related to having a coal plant (up/down reg, voltage reg). Solar has terrible density and high capital costs. Utilities would rather build combined-cycle units that burn nat. gas because the capital cost is much cheaper and the emissions, while not zero, are much less than coal.

Your argument that the 'distributed' nature of solar somehow eliminates the voltage and transmission constraints is misinformed. If you looked at the recent surge of wind generation in West Texas, you could see that the transmission problem is actually HUGE and causes massive congestion when the wind blows.

Instead, utilities will take that $1.8B and build 2GW of combined cycle plants that produce FIRM power and are eligible for ancillary services, rather than a pitiful 275MW of NON-FIRM power.