Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View sdavid0419's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Japan's Troubling Economics And AFLAC [View article]
    NC Investor Like you I hold AFL and I like it here. The amazing thing about this QE phenomenon is that this already tremendous amount of infusion has been leveraged to the hilt. Some of these shadow company balance sheets are just plain unimaginable.
    May 22, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Troubling Economics And AFLAC [View article]
    I.Z. You are just another internet PHD that has created your own straw dog just so you could massage your ego calling someone else a name. In all of my long winded post I see no place where I allege China built an empire with cheap currency. Those are your words.
    May 22, 2015. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific: Destroyed Or Discounted? [View article]
    UNP has been hyper inflated due to the overproduction of crude oil which is a very good thing in the long run. The effect is being exaggerated by a monopolistic group of oil producing companies called OPEC. Ie. OPEC is hell bent on driving the oil price down below the point US shale oil can compete. NOTE to OPEC it only appears your greedy plan is working as in the short term you have succeeded in greatly lowering the price of the product. If you have the reserve ability to keep this up for any length of time you will be exposed to all of the wrong doing you have been up to for years. The phony gas lines of the 70's, the buying of substantial auto maker shares to prevent them from replacing parts subject to erode from alternative fuels, and the many other things that even I don't know about.

    Back in the 70's there were several efforts to boycott Shell brand by name as that was the only oil company people thought was directly tied to OPEC even though all of them were. What I've come up with is for the shale oil producers to come up with NEW clearly identifiable US brands. I say several because in the USA we have the Taft/Hartley Act that prevents any company from having a monopoly. Once these new brands emerge we can stage a real boycott and teach OPEC a lesson of how Americans can come together when you tick us off. Certainly the Arabs will try price wars at the pump but it will be very unpatriotic to opt for cheaper Arab oil over home grown US Oil.
    May 22, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Troubling Economics And AFLAC [View article]
    On the surface this appeared to me to be just another of those have to write something to collect on the click money articles.

    I did get something out of this article as I have been posting often about Japan's leading the way in QE and where it is eventually going to lead. You made the obvious statement which I used to make and that is eventually interest rates would go up. What I have learned form the US example is that as long as governments are playing this dangerous game they will use all of their power to suppress interest rates from going up. This is contrary to the economics we were taught when I went to school as our generation looked at this situation as a way to inflate out of debt.

    What has changed since we were in school is that trade barriers have been removed to open the world markets to American Greed. Once the door to "free trade" opened China immediately began using money manipulation to gain a huge trade advantage. Japan which was doing pretty well at the time got crushed with cheap Chinese money shifting the balance of trade. Japan with the USA's blessing invented Quantitative Easing which allowed them to manipulate their own money. The US then decided to join the game as well as most other nations that had signed away their trade barriers. Debt became just another way of keeping score as to who was winning.

    Banks lost Tnotes as a way to bolster their reserves and pay their depositors a decent return on their hard earned money. With this loss the banks resorted to inventing derivatives a very risky self insurance scheme to make up for the loss but as the world woke up to this ploy the too big to fail FAILED. They failed as with any poker game for every winner there is a loser. Egos being as they are most poker players wives will hear nothing less than 'I broke even'. In the case of banks they hire clever accountants to hide what they did from their wives.

    The other thing I took from this article is the first evidence I have seen anywhere from the post that I made at the time that readers in denial gave many more thumbs down than up and that is the nuclear reactor accident. The prediction I made at the time was that in 10 years Japan's population would be half of what it was at that time. For some reason governments have trouble telling people they are doomed so it was in Japan that told its people they were at no risk.
    May 22, 2015. 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidated Edison's Ticker 'ED' Should Stand For 'Enticing Dividend' [View article]
    Elz you must not have read my entire post or you are foolish enough to think Congress will ever balance a budget. Either way if your scenario were to happen the solution would be as simple as investing in the version of the treasury notes that protect you against inflation.
    May 22, 2015. 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude-by-rail shipments slip amid weak oil prices [View news story]
    Many of the RR accidents happened because the system was not ready to safely handle the volume of increased business that oil presented. This resulted in all RR's increasing spending fixing infra structure way over due to be upgraded.

    Fracking oil can be found in every state so that building a pipeline to all of those places is too expensive to even be considered. Should that solution be considered the risk of any one pipe bursting would be very low but with so many pipes everywhere you will be seeing underground pipe bursts such as the one currently polluting the southern California coast line just as frequently as you are seeing a train accident related to moving this very dangerous substance. After they are in place over 100 years you will see them bursting just as frequently (several daily) as major city water pipes are currently bursting and as with the water pipes there will be no money to replace them. Unlike water pipelines the mess resulting from such oil pipe bursts will destroy the environment we need to survive.

    Bottom line is train oil is here for a long time to come. The current glut in world oil will correct itself in time as OPEC comes to grips with the fact that US citizens will no longer be held over a barrel knowing we have an untold worth of our own oil. Our "free trade" driven government will sooner rather than later cave on the exporting of our oil until such time as it becomes a national safety issue.

    Basically what I am saying is we were given a preview via over production of our new found resource. The RR's current loss is a temporary adjustment. Just as they are coping with the slow down in the world's most polluting fuel coal as it is finally being removed from use the RR's will take a temporary set back in oil followed up with a guaranteed increase in future use as the world's markets factor in its use and gets back to the point where the price is constantly getting higher as demand has a chance to catch up.
    May 22, 2015. 06:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac aims for new CFO by end of Q2 [View news story]
    Is this the explanation for the stock falling a point and a half today? Did the old outgoing dude liquidate his position?
    May 21, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco: Get Ready For An Extended Dividend Freeze [View article]
    There seems to be a career in speculating what MAY happen to COP and writing an article. The fact is ENERGY is a field that got ahead of itself on new technology. The OPEC Arabs thought they had this monopoly sewed up since they controlled most of the previous known world oil and they've been doing everything they can to prevent the development of alternatives. Voila! Just like that fracking technology dumped a ton of new supply on the market and in the short term only the glut of its by product natural gas had any effect on world markets. Then one day aided by a ban on Russian Oil did the market wake up to the fact that the USA was awash in New Oil. Now comes the adjustment period where the Arabs are trying to continue to do everything they can to rid themselves of the obvious. In time the market will seek its own level and emerging nations will discover the automobile growing demand as they always have. The crooks at Goldman Sachs saw $62/brl and sounded the all clear totally ignoring it was Memorial Day weekend and that next week the price would collapse back down into the mid $40's. Goldman had their opinion, this guys has his. To me opinions are like back sides everyone has one. Mine is if the worse thing that happens is I collect 4.6% on my investment while waiting to find out who's opinion is correct I'll be satisfied.
    May 21, 2015. 07:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Union Pacific Stock Is Falling [View article]
    CSX had a slew of trains blocked for almost a week while AMTRAK cleaned up their mess. No excuse for UNP unless the lack of water is slowing down produce and dock business and I can't see that.
    May 20, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips should hit $80 even as it faces free cash flow deficit [View news story]
    After the memorial day holiday the price of a barrel will drop back into the mid 40's and COP will use up all its cash trying to keep up the unreal dividend.
    May 20, 2015. 04:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidated Edison's Ticker 'ED' Should Stand For 'Enticing Dividend' [View article]
    Electric utilities are famous for paying dividends. The only problem with that is when interest rates go up beyond the dividend growth you end up losing in principle what you gain in dividends. I don't think anyone living today will have to worry about that as until Congress can pass a balanced budget interest rates cannot go up for fear of consuming the entire GNP in interest on the debt.
    May 19, 2015. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific: How To Trade Around A Core Position [View article]
    There is even some protection on the possibilities of shifts in the wind. When DE warned on my open PUT I immediately closed my position and still made $400. When a PUT expires unused I deduct the amount I made from my target price and immediately start another PUT. The only time I've been burned was on a CALL where I left some profits on the table but still did well for the time I held the stock.
    May 18, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific: How To Trade Around A Core Position [View article]
    I have a slightly different take on this. I BUY in when I deem my target stock which are always intended to be a core position appear over sold and I do so with a PUT knocking off as much as 3.5 points on top of an over sold condition. When over bought conditions seem to occur I SELL covered CALLs on part or all of my holdings in that stock. This creates the situation where I possibly upon expiration of the options keep my position and profit from the over/under condition. The only draw back to my method is one must deal in even 100 shr blocks. Should I get called out of a position I still liked I will wait for the price of the stock to correct and I will sell a new PUT on it.
    May 17, 2015. 10:30 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Railcar Industries: Icahn, Energy, Leasing [View article]
    I originally bought ARII because Icahn owned it. I was hoping this might be the start of the next Berkshire Hathaway. Once they raised the dividend the stock made a huge move up. I got a bit worried when Icahn removed himself from CEO but the order backlog and the expanded repair facility make this company look very busy and profitable for the foreseeable future. With the crash of the price of a barrel of oil I thought the stock was drastically over sold as the facts of shale oil have not changed. Fracking can be done in every state and it is too expensive to put pipelines to everywhere. Try as they may the Arabs are going to have to live with shale oil and the real price of a barrel is well on the way to correcting. All the same I double my holdings on what I thought was an insane dip and for now I am very happy collecting the dividend. Whatever Icahn is doing he's doing a heck of a job for me.
    May 15, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Voya and Assurant the picks as Goldman launches insurance sector coverage [View news story]
    Who cares what the crooks at Goldman think?
    May 15, 2015. 07:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment