Barry Sotoero

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

I believed that at one time gold may be the investment that it was in the 70's. I am starting to think otherwise, it is starting to appear that with all other countries in the world devaluing their currency so fast, that the only real stable currency to fall back on is the greenback. I think this seems to be causing gold to fall short. I truly hope that this is short term, since I have been long gold for fear of high inflation from a devaluing of the greenback by the federal reserve. It will be a waiting game, but I know that if we do have a substantial rebound in gold stocks I will be taking some profits and will lighten up on my gold holdings.

I have been studying the past performance of the options market that occurred throughout 2008 and I believe shorting banking stocks and other financials may be a place where big money will be able to made once more.
There will be a second round of failures, maybe as large as the previous to come in the next couple months. Alot of people with 3 year arms have not been able to refinance and these loans will be adjusting between spring and summer and the next wave of defaults and bailouts are just around the corner. Deflation seems more likely in the short term (2009) then inflation. Hopefully I am incorrect but the finger is pointing in this direction more each day.
Good luck to all and if anyone has an opinion on my statements please feel free to comment.

A Warning for U.S. Dollar Bears and Commodity Bulls

Hiper Inflation is on it's way. We have not seen anything yet!!

We have not even seen any economic data that is reflective of any past rate cuts. It takes about 9 months to a year to see true economic data reflective of monetary policy. It's almost funny, in about three to five years we will see rates raised in the same fashion as they Fed is cutting them now. Inflation is at 10% right now, believe it or not. The only hedge against the falling dollar and inflation in the past have been gold and oil. Keep buying on dips. The Fed should have just cut rates to zero at least we would have a bottom in the falling dollar. HAHA

What the Fed should be doing is raising interest rates to fight inflation and letting irresponsible lenders and borrowers default on their loans. A free market trade got us here and should be allowed to continue.
It would be nice to see some of this money that the Fed is pumping into banks be used instead to finance projects for alternative energy through large tax cuts or some other means. Many countries like Brazil and Germany are becoming energy independent. Brazil has not raised the price of gasoline since 2005 to their citizens. We need to focus on real issues here like becoming energy independent, cutting interest is a coat of icing on a pile of shi...