16 looks reasonable in the near future, and yes, it is catch-up. In analysis of the whole sector, the important thing is to sort out the material suppliers from the panel makers/installers from the verticals. When you look at the material suppliers, make sure they do something else for a living, too, which makes WFR look promising. When you look at the panel makers/installers, make sure they have the size and market position in key countries, which makes STP look promising. And on the verticals, TSL. The others will run with the momentum players.
Sold a third of my long position on YGE; think it's got potential for mid-20s. Traded out CY (which rides on SPWR), then picked it up again. Bid for STP missed in the low-30s, quel dommage! But think it can be picked up again in mid-to-upper 30s. Don't understand the beating WFR has taken while the rest of them were on the rise. For the time being, the solar space is a trader's market. For the long term, it ain't a fad. When the storage problem is solved (check out MXWL on that one), you will be able to buy a home installation system at Home Depot. That day is not far off.
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