Muddling Investor

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/

159 Comments

    • Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Blood on the Streets - Buy Russia [view article]
      Russia is between sell and sell short. Current government has strong confiscatory tendencies. War and falling commodities prices is just icing on a cake. Two days of up oil is not a trend, and please take a look at RSX: it's divorced from oil lately. Aug 21 06:22 PM
    • The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets [view article]
      There are a lot of coins on Ebay right now:

      search.ebay.com/search...=

      If author were right, it wouldn't be the case. Looks like pump and dump, sorry.
       Aug 20 10:58 PM
    • Martin Wolf on Capitalism [view article]
      Well, in Anglo-American world we at least didn't have 19 years (and counting) of depression... Scammers and crooks are always here (and there, too), just read O. Henry. My approach is from self-regulation. Any self-regulating system needs negative feedback. That's market. Everything else is just frothing. Yeah, losing a job can be tough (been there), but to work in Japanese-style company, with lifetime employment? Hell no, thank you. But it's just me. Aug 20 10:31 PM
    • The Most Important Price in an Economy [view article]
      Maybe author is right. I just wonder what Japanese government and Japanese themselves think about their powerful yen? Especially in the last 19 years. Wouldn't want to be in their shoes... But we might get there. Aug 20 10:22 PM
    • Apple & Google: A Detailed Comparison [view article]
      Both companies are great. Apple biggest growth potential: PC market. iPhone has a big problem: cellphone market is lousy. Just take a look at Motorola. Or Palm. The fact that Steve Jobs is worth between 30 and 50% of Apple price is the main concern though.
      Google is one trick pony. But it's a huge market, competition is demoralized and market is growing.
      I hold both, but sold part of my Apple position lately and will sell some more above $190. Apple is still my biggest position but Steve risk factor is too big.       Aug 20 02:33 PM
    • Opportunities to Profit from the New Cold War [view article]
      'Perpahs Russia will form a coalition of the evil with Cuba and Venezuala?'
      Venezuela, yes. Unless people slap Chavez on the wrist, which they did several times lately. He is not a complete autocrat, yet.
      Cuba, no. Raul will be moving to the West. Slowly, but surely. He's got no choice. There was a lot of enthusiasm there in 1962 for socialism and against USA, but, two generations later, there is none. Add 3+ million Cubans in USA, which is a huge investment opportunity just waiting to happen.

      But, our goal is to make money! Author forgot General Dynamics and Raytheon. I vouch for the last one, it makes almost all modern electronics for fighter jets and missiles. More here:
      muddlinginvestor.blogs...       Aug 19 11:29 AM
    • Is the Buck Really Back? [view article]
      In crisis time, people invest in US treasures. That's one of the reasons for dollar strength. Purchasing strength is another (purchasing parity is about $1.20 to Euro). Trade deficit is meaningless in the age of huge money flows around the world. Especially when it doesn't include services, physical goods only. Aug 18 11:12 PM
    • Chinese Hegemonic Effect Overtakes U.S.? Not So Fast [view article]
      You are absolutely right. I should also add that no country can get great by way of pure export growth. If China overtakes US (in whatever sense), where is it going to sell all that produced stuff? Think of Japan in the end of 1980s. Results are still incredible... Great Japanese Depression, beating all records. Aug 18 10:31 PM
    • Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
      Great article! Thanks for UUP suggestion. I'm not sure peso and real are good ideas though, but they at least worth good research. My hunch, dollar is going up against almost everything. But I just might be wrong... Aug 18 10:10 PM
    • Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
      Why so much noise? Russian bubble popped even before invasion in Georgia. Make no mistake, it's not "peacekeeping action": one of the sides can't be peacekeeper. It's blunt and shameless attempt to restore old USSR using military power.
      Investment in Russia is as good as lost. Russian budget goes into red if oil below $110, Russia claims currency reserves of 600 billion dollars, but Russian government companies owe Western banks close to 400 billion. Investors started running away more than a month ago. Russia is between sell and sell short right now. If government continues current policy, it will nationalize most of industries in couple of years (oil and gas are already nationalized for all practical purposes). If you think that investors are going to be compensated, read about Yukos.
      Read more in my blog, starting Nov last year.       Aug 18 09:44 PM
    • Will Drilling Offshore Affect World Oil Prices? [view article]
      'First, consider this exchange from April 2004, where Nalebuff suggests investing $5 billion to enable Iraq's oil industry to export a million extra barrels of oil a day, thereby negating OPEC's monopoly power.'
      That's total BS. Iraq is an OPEC member, continues to be. It increases oil production and AFAIK didn't reach its limit yet. Of course, comparing to 2005, production in Iraq increased by at least 1 million bpd.       Aug 18 05:35 PM
    • Do We Need an Alternative Energy 'Manhattan Project'? [view article]
      The difference is, there is no scientific and technological base to make altenergy competitive. If electric car is not competitive when oil is $100 for a barrel, it's not competitive at all. If solar energy costs 40+ cents for kWh and science and technology don't allow it to be much cheaper, it's no good. Wind energy isn't good for base load, because it's weather dependent and not good for peak load for the same reason. Chemical battery will always lose to liquid fuel because of low energy density and long recharge times. And, again, altenergy already consumed much more money than Manhattan project and Moon race combined, inflation adjusted. Where are results? Aug 14 05:35 PM
    • Do We Need an Alternative Energy 'Manhattan Project'? [view article]
      If you say something, doesn't mean it happens. When Truman said Drop the bomb', he had it. Price didn't matter. When Kennedy said 'Let's go to the Moon', technology was available, price was decent for the goal (not the Moon but the propaganda value). Even Manhattan project was built on the base of know science and technology. There is no technological base for altenergy right now which makes it at close to competitive with oil for transportation. Governments around the world spent hundreds of billions since 1970s (much more than on Manhattan project and Moon races combines, adjusted for inflation) and still nothing. Best hope we have now is fuel cells working on gasoline. But they've been three years in the future for the last ten years. When somebody invents cold thermonuclear device compact and powerful enough to fit in the car, and cheap enough to mass produce, that's it. Everything else is just talk. And huge waste of taxpayers money. Aug 14 02:09 PM
    • Russia: Beware the Bear [view article]
      'long-term investing there a spin of the roulette wheel'

      More like spin of revolver drum in Russian Roulette.       Aug 13 04:18 PM
    • Reasons To Short the Euro [view article]
      You can use DRR to short Euro with smaller risk. Put options on FXE is another relatively safe play. Aug 13 04:13 PM
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