Alex Filonov

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/
Total Rating:
+10 / -5

276 Comments

    • Mon Aug 11th 00:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Microsoft Break-Up Could Unlock Its True Value - Barron's
      MSFT can't unload online division, the only way to get rid of it is to shut it down. Who needs a business losing 2 billions a year? Xbox might be worth something as a spin-off, but competing against Sony and Nintendo without MSFT deep pockets might be scary. Break up looks good on paper, but in reality... I don't know.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 10th 23:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Crude Reality
      Only two comments:
      1. Parabolic chart is always a bubble. When oil went over $100, it was in a bubble, supply and demand didn't matter.
      2. There is a lot of new oil production. Oil is going to $70.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 13:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can the Potential Yahoo/Microsoft Marriage Be Saved?
      Why save it? It doesn't make sense. Microsoft doesn't understand Internet business, DOJ might not allow this combination, and AOL, with all nice words about Miller, is a dead company. AOL is not a winner here. Google is.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Great American Economy? Take a Closer Look
      Well, US government debt is 9 trillion or less than 70% of GDP. What can we say then about Japan (110%)? Europe might be not that bad, but almost all European countries are in debt and deficit spending too. We are all doomed! Wait, maybe it's not so bad? Current generation grew up when government was deep (and deeper) in debt and they are not complaining. Life isn't worse now than it was in 1980. We'll survive.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 19:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is it Different This Time?
      It's always different. And always the same. Just a question of comparison base... Is it the same as 1970s now? Or 1930s?
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 18:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not
      Well, what about speculation based on idiotic theory of "Peak Oil"? Offshore drilling is at least real. Or completely disconnected from real product speculation by hedge and sovereign wealth funds when oil price speculation became available through ETFs? Or possible wash sales by sovereign wealth funds (don't forget, most oil producing countries have nationalized oil companies)?

      In reality, what author is talking about, is trend speculation (bad) vs countertrend speculation (good). In reality, both are quite legitimate.

      Disclosure: short oil by holding DTO.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 13:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil, Gas, Electric Cars, the Market and the Economy
      Peak oil is crap theory. There is a lot of oil in the ground. It's harder to reach than what we had 10 years ago, but not impossible, just more expensive. The real problem is that we had an oil investment drop 10 years ago (remember, $10 a barrel?) and now we see the results. Now investment is flowing into oil exploration, and 5-10 years from now we will be asking: expensive oil? why, it's cheap.

      User215308 is right: even if you solve other electric car problems, charging fast is still a huge problem. Let's say you want to charge and equivalent of 10 gallon of gas, adjusted for better efficiency of electric car. That's about 70 kWh. Let's say you want to to it in 5 minutes. That's 14 kWh per minute, or 840 kW. At standard 200V it's more than 4000 amps. You need thigh-thick conductors to run this current safely. Or you switch to high voltage and make recharging a highly dangerous business.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 14:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Do Dividend Stocks Underperform the Market?
      18 years period or 35 years period? Who cares! In the log term we are all dead. If you buy Dogs of the Dow today, you buy GM and Ford. That's way too risky. Every stock should be researched on its own merits, dividend is just one of the variables. And if you don't have time to research individual stocks, invest in mutual funds or ETFs. Even then research is needed. Of course, there are also index funds, but if you invested in such in 2000, you did worse than with CD (which, by the way, is FDIC insured and your principal is definitely safe).
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 12:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Which Inflation Is It Anyway?
      Correction: I wanted to say that in the beginning of 1930s about 4000 US banks went bust.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 11:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Which Inflation Is It Anyway?
      To BrunoT: 'if a retiree has saved $1M through hard work over his life, he's gonna vote for deflation that allows him to live longer on his stash, rather than inflation, especially hyperinflation, that quickly destroys his savings in a few years.'

      If a bank where retiree is keeping his/her money goes bust, he/she loses everything (but 100K insured by FDIC). In deflationary environment, banks go bust. If that retiree keeps money in stocks or bonds, he/she loses money, because stock and bond markets go down in deflationary environment. Everybody (well, almost everybody) loses money in deflation. Even lenders, because they get higher returns only on returned loans, and bankruptcies sharply increase in deflation. If your debtor is bankrupt, you get back much less than you loaned. Just read about Great Depression and Japanese Great Depression. In the beginning of 1930 (severe deflation) about 4000 banks (lenders) in US went bust.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 11:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lithium-Ion Batteries and Centerfolds: The Final Chapter
      Those who believe in large scale energy storage should check their medications (and beverages) too. Simple physics tells us it's not possible. On the other hand, energy storage business will continue developing fast, for the small-scale solutions. There is a huge number of devices which need more efficient batteries: laptops, power tools, music players etc. If you want to invest in energy storage, invest in companies developing small-scale batteries.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 00:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cable Has the Edge Over Telcos - Barron's
      I agree. Everybody's losing. I'm not sure why, but if you look at the charts, Comcast is no better performer than Verizon or AT&T. I don't know what market tells us, except that it hates all telcos and all cable companies.
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 2nd 00:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Which Inflation Is It Anyway?
      It's hard to explain people right now that deflation is much more dangerous than inflation. There are a lot of people around who lived through inflation of 1970s. And almost none who lived through Great Depression. Some people even call what happened in 1970s 'hyperinflation'. Wrong! Hyperinflation is double digit inflation in a month, not in a year! Anyway, the problem with deflation is that there is no cure for it. It can last decades (look at Japan) with no end in sight. And you can think that government can print enough money to fix it, but it doesn't work if this money is not getting spent. Japan tried to print money, they tried different stimulus packages, and still nothing works. That's why I'd prefer inflation now to deflation a little bit later. And don't tell me that inflation bad, I lived through 30% a month inflation. You have no idea what's it like, I do.

      Uncle Ben, please print more money while it can still work.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Embraer's Earnings Take Off
      'Frankly it's hard to find anything to buy in the global depression scenario...'

      Apple cart... :)
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 13:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SemGroup's Fall and the Impact on Oil
      When bubble pops, some companies go bust. When Internet bubble popped, many (most) internet startups went bust, when housing bubble popped, it was time for financials. Now it's time for commodities traders who didn't manage risk and bet one way only.
      View article »
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