Alex Filonov

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/
Total Rating:
+10 / -5

276 Comments

    • Thu Oct 23rd 15:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pay Attention to Indian Silver Buying Spree
      To sliver-bullet:

      Industrial demand is only a half of total demand, true. Investment demand for silver, however, is below 10% (Just look at the graph I'm referencing in original comment).
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 15:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hank Paulson, Revisionist
      To daytrader:

      I actually made money on Cramer's advice. A lot. Maybe somebody lost, those people probably didn't read Jim's book "Mad Money. Sane Investment In Insane World". Doesn't matter whose advice you listen to, you are responsible for all your decisions, investment and trading are not exceptions.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 15:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Could Socialism Make You a Better Capitalist?
      You are looking for a large economic trend? In one word: deflation. Yes, US government and Fed are trying to flood world with US dollars. But those dollars only go to banks and don't move any further. Credit is almost completely frozen, and credit is like blood for economy. Of course, world economic crisis and worsening political outlook also add to that, people buy dollars to buy most reliable investment tool, US treasuries.

      In short, the amount of money in the economy doesn't mean anything if you don't take money velocity into account.

      Disclosure: long UUP.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 11:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hank Paulson, Revisionist
      Paulsen as treasury sec for Obama? Come on, give us Bob Rubin or Larry Summers back! Even Jim Cramer might be a better choice than Paulsen (although he is way too emotional, I don't think Congress would ever confirm him). But maybe the most radical idea: Erin Burnett. Young, smart, worked at Goldman Sachs, what else do you need? Financial America knows her and she knows financial America.

      As for the article, I agree. If Paulsen and Bernanke had enough will, they would engineer some kind of rescue. Something similar to Long Term Capital liquidation in 1998, just quiet backroom deal, no need for illegal official government moves.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 22:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pay Attention to Indian Silver Buying Spree
      To anarchist: if you think so, just short gold. And go long gold, short silver couple of months later.

      COMEX figures mean nothing. Not long ago, in May, we had similar situation with oil futures, and guess what, oil lost 50% already. Current situation on commodities future markets is crazy, a lot of hot money is going in and out. Futures are separated from physical goods, future markets only show supply/demand balance of future contracts.

      There is one bearish fact for silver: film photography is almost dead. If you look at the demand picture here: www.silverinstitute.or..., silver consumption by photography is way down in the last several years and real demand driver was from industrial applications. Now, with recession (depression?), that one might not hold either.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 13:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Strategy Bites the Dust
      Of course dollar is going up. There are two reasons:
      1. Dollar currency cycle (right, 7 years), combined with commodity bubble popped. I outlined reasons for being bullish on dollar here: muddlinginvestor.blogs....
      2. World crisis, both political and economical. Bullish for dollar, outlined here: muddlinginvestor.blogs...

      The only currency stronger than dollar right now is yen. I have no idea why, probably because of unwinding of yen carry trades. Or maybe because Japan Central Bank stopped dumping yen for dollar.

      Disclosure: Long UUP.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 21st 12:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Things Aren't as Bad as They Seem - Barron's
      I agree, things are not as bad as they seem. They are much worse. The most important metric right now is inflation. And last couple of months data shows no inflation to speak of. Yes, if you take food and energy out, it does show some. But, there is a metric which is hugely delayed in CPI: cost of housing. In CPI, it's reflected through (roughly) cost of apartment rent. And this cost is usually updated only once a year by owners. So we really don't know how falling house prices affecting inflation, because apartment rent prices are not synchronous with housing prices (people foreclosed from their property have to rent, driving prices up for a while) and will not change until year end anyway. In short, we are really in deflation right now. Despite all (feeble) efforts of Fed and Government. Unless Uncle Ben can jumpstart helicopters throwing out money, we are in much deeper trouble than anybody thinks. Think Great Depression v2.0.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 15:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mad Currency Machinations Continue
      What machinations? US dollar goes up against almost everything, as I predicted here: muddlinginvestor.blogs..., that was August 25. That was the day I started my UUP position to take advantage of this move.

      Disclosure: still long UUP.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 00:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?
      Analysis is almost good, with one exception. We are in deflation already. Which means that price of dollar grows related to other products. Europe might be on the brink of labor-triggered inflation, although it's a tough call. Labor has no pricing power here.
      As for recommendations, gold is a bunk. Don't buy. Buying market might be a good idea, but we just might get into Great Depression, in which case market has about 50% more to fall (if not more).
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 18th 23:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Learning from Japan
      The only thing we can learn from Japan: never follow their path. The country is in permanent Great Depression, slightly lifted last several years by Chinese growth, but now back in force. Come on, US only had Great Depression for 12 years, 1929-1941. Japan: next year we will celebrate 20 years of Japanese Great Depression. We cry that our national debt is 70% of GDP. Japanese national debt is more than 110% of GDP!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 2nd 18:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Think of These as Short-Term Troubles
      Long term? If you need that money in 20 years, you are right. Otherwise, it's the worst investing environment since 1929.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 2nd 14:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why the Bailout Bill Alone Won't Solve the Credit Crisis
      Great Depression II, which I was afraid of in December (muddlinginvestor.blogs...), is coming. Rescue package will decide how bad is it gonna be. We can't avoid it now, we can only make it better or worse, shorter or longer. Remember, nobody makes money in deflation, with rare exceptions. Bulls, bears, all lose.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 14:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Cannot Fix the Financial Crisis By Itself
      Bravo! You just forgot to add that, like in Great Depression, prices for everything, not houses only, would go down, kicking off deflationary spiral. Welcome to Great Depression II!
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 14:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Myths About the Free Market and Its 'Demise'
      What are we arguing about? Great Depression II is coming and there is nothing which can stop it now. Bank rescue package (I don't know what idiot called it Wall Street rescue, Wall Street is done already, there are no investment banks around anymore) could save us from GD II two weeks ago. Now it's too late. Buy the mattress, turn everything into cash. Keep cash, in deflation (unknown for the most concept) money go up in price. Forget about commodities. Forget about any investments, except into high dividend vice companies: tobacco, spirits, maybe some casinos.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 13:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Dollar Becoming Less Global?
      Sorry, misprint. Russian companies owe more than $500 billion.
      View article »
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