Alex Filonov

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/
Total Rating:
+10 / -5

276 Comments

    • Tue Sep 23rd 16:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Didn't Bernanke, Paulson Plan Better?
      Well, alternative played out in 1929... Give depression a chance!
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 17:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Goldman U-Turn
      Translation: we didn't think there is going to be a run on us. But when it happened, we are forced to find funding options (deposits) and access to Fed's window...
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 15:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why "Drill, Baby, Drill!" Does Not Translate Into Effective National Energy Policy
      Misleading header: who defines if energy policy is efficient? As far as I know only market tells you if economic policy is efficient or not. Which means that you can't declare any economic policy, including energy policy "efficient" until long time after it was decided.
      As for drilling/extraction relationship, it ignores one well-known fact: rotary rigs are also used to drill for natural gas, and natural gas production is increasing.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 19th 20:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Putin's Policies Drive Foreign Investment from Russia
      Russian Roulette is a dangerous game. Now it's played with five bullets in a drum.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 13:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Turbulent Times Require a Disciplined Approach to Investing
      Sure, there are buying opportunities. The question is: where? I wouldn't touch financials with 10 foot pole right now. Goldman Sachs under 100! It's under book value! The problem is, I don't know how rotten this book is. Yes, it's time to buy something. But remember: many stocks are going down even more, and you don't know which ones. If you diversify today, you win tomorrow, just be prepared to see half of you position go down and stay there. This was my experience of 2000-2002.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 16th 21:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Massive Opportunity to Short the Dollar
      There are very good ways to short dollar: go long FXE (Euro) for brave, FXY (Yen) for sane or FXA (Australian dollar) for insane. Wouldn't do it. Despite common misconception, money grows in price in economic slowdown. That is, unless Central Bank (Uncle Ben, i.e. Fed in case of US) cuts rates and injects liquidity into the system. Fed refused to do so today. Dollar is king, unfortunately. Economy goes down.

      Disclosure: long UUP.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 16th 00:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman's Collapse: Broader Economic Damage Unlikely
      Deflation is bad for everybody. "Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee".
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 15th 21:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft's Seinfeld Campaign: Will It Play Outside of Peoria?
      I'm afraid Microsoft is gradually becoming irrelevant. Sure, they still have their OS installed on 90% (probably more like 85% now) PCs and on about 40% servers. They still make huge money on it. But they are irrelevant to the technology development. Developments are happening in Apple and (even more) in free software. MSFT is trying to get a foothold in other markets and can't do it.

      Disclosure: long Apple (and not happy about it lately), Red Hat and Google.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 17:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can Two Rich Guys Humanize Microsoft?
      I only saw one ad so far. And I'm a geek myself, so if to believe author I'm not a target and most people think exactly opposite to what I think. Maybe. But from my point of view, two middle aged rich guys aren't the best people to connect to average person and to "humanize" Microsoft.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 17:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Government Line: This Isn't as Bad as S&L Crisis
      Uh-huh. Every time current administration tells us that problem is not a big deal, it turns out much worse than even pessimists feared. Remember housing/mortgage crisis and government reaction in the beginning of 2007? Liquidity crisis in August of the same year? Looks like we are again up to something big and not pretty.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 17:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      US Dollar Remains Strong in Spite of Negative Data
      Is it hard to understand that dollar really can go up in bad economy? That bad economic news are spelled d-e-f-l-a-t-i-o-n now, which is a growth of real purchasing strength of the dollar? If anybody thinks that inflation is the scariest thing in economy, wait until deflation strikes full force... Inflation/deflation is a function of money supply, GDP and money velocity, and in recession velocity is going down (and money supply is stable this year).
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 15:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Big Oil Companies Could Lose Out on Exploration Deals
      This is a part of oil cycle. When oil goes down in price, NOCs will have no option but invite IOCs back. Or governments will be forced to accept IOCs participation. Happened before, will happen again.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 13:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Demand Down, Supply Up
      Well, if this analysis holds up, $100 oil is way too high.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 12:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party
      Well, now it's time for WaMu and AIG... What you think a bottom might be just a layer of silt (or mud, or muddle...).
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 11:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Argentina and Brazil Abolish Dollar in Bilateral Trade
      Doom and gloom for dollar... Wait, it's going up second month in a row! How could it happen?

      Disclosure: long UUP.
      View article »
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