Alex Filonov

http://muddlinginvestor.blogspot.com/
Total Rating:
+10 / -5

276 Comments

    • Wed Sep 3rd 13:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should We Listen to Boone Pickens on Oil?
      Agree with article completely. Conflict of interest is a scary thing, sometimes you believe what you say, even when common sense is telling you it's false.

      On a side note, energy independence is just a political slogan. We live in the world and we can't be independent from it. We sell a lot of stuff, we buy a lot of stuff. Our biggest oil supplier is Canada, do we want to be energy independent from it too? No matter what politicians say and do, market forces win in the end. In the worst case, they win in a different country, and countries where politicians win over the market, go bust (all communists countries, with exceptions of China and Vietnam, now Venezuela and Bolivia are going there, Argentina might follow as well). And it doesn't really matter what kind of ideology you use to kill market: communism, energy independence, people's good, whatever.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 2nd 11:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      RSX and Russia's Escalating Risk Premium
      Good article. I have to add that oil extraction is declining in Russia this year. Natural gas still flat, but if my estimates are correct, would go down soon. The problem is, gas industry is nationalized (don't ever confuse Gazprom with public company) and oil is nationalized too, for all practical purposes. Western oil companies were cheated of their projects several times and are not going to invest big in Russia anymore. When this process ended up in nationalization of the most of oil fields under Rosneft, I thought it would take Kremlin bureaucrats at least couple of years to kill the goose. I was wrong, those guys are working fast. If my another forecast is right and Russia will start throwing much more money on military, no sanctions are needed. Economy will nosedive.
      I still think that Russia is between sell and sell short.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 17:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will You Look Back on Today as Your Greatest Missed Opportunity?
      GE is a good buy when they announce some kind of spin-off. Current conglomerate is not sustainable. It's a great tribute to Jack Welsh, but he was the last CEO who could handle this monster. And to those who think dividend is an indicator, just take a look at financials in the end of the last year. Sometimes it's an indicator of a trap.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 10:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yes, Virginia, There are High Dividend ETNs
      I'm afraid that growing dollar kills any gain you can make on above mentioned dividends. A year ago these ETNs would be great to own, now, I don't think so.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 26th 13:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CETV: A Buy in Russia's Shadow
      Looks great! The only problem: as any TV company, it depends on advertising. Any word on advertising climate in Central Europe for the next couple of years? AFAIK in recession ad budgets are cut.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 25th 21:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Let's Not Emulate the Hoover Administration
      HARM,

      You are wrong about deflation. When it hits (look at Japan, for Pete's sake!) you can print all money you want, it just doesn't go into circulation. Milton Friedman thought that you can throw money down from helicopters, but if it goes directly into mattress, same thing. Responsible saver can go bust if he has uninsured money in the bank, cause banks fail in deflation/depression. And it's a big question if he has anything to save, with high unemployment rate he (or she) can be out of work with high probability. Nobody wins in deflation. Deflation wasn't that bad in 19th century, when most people had to spend more than 80% of income for necessities. Now, when discretionary spending supports more than 50% of economy, situation is different. BTW, 4000 square feet house is discretionary.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 25th 16:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Let's Not Emulate the Hoover Administration
      Uh-huh. Most people are afraid of inflation more than of depression/deflation. They just can't get in their heads that deflation is much harder to stop than inflation. Even unfolding example of Japan doesn't make them think. 'We are not Japan'. Well, not yet...

      Great article!
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 25th 12:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Russia Looks Better on Paper Than in Real Life
      'However, it wasn’t until Russia physically invaded Georgia this month that investors really started fleeing the country.'

      Wrong. RSX chart here contradicts you completely. Investors started their flight in July, by August 1 RSX already lost more than 15% (quite a drop in one months).

      Any investment in Russia now is Russian Roulette. Government with every day looks like lunatics running asylum.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 25th 11:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Problems - Bad to the Core?
      Apple is a great company. And every company has problems. But in case of Apple, those problems are increasing lately. Which increases the risk. Here are my thoughts on Apple:
      muddlinginvestor.blogs...

      To all flamers: I bought Apple stock in 1999 and 2000. Probably before you knew about the company at all.

      Disclosure: long AAPL.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 24th 13:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Russia's Strategic Intent To Use Energy as a Weapon Has Increased
      Anvor, if you are so sure, buy RSX. Buy on margin, you'll get rich. This is not a forum to discuss military matters, of which I know a little bit more than you. For my economic data, just check Russian statistics. It's still relatively honest.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 24th 13:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past
      Crap. Is it a big surprise that in countries with nationalized or partially nationalized oil industry production is going down? Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia. Yeah, right. By 1988 in USSR they also thought that there is no oil anymore. In Baku area (that's Azerbaijan now), production was going down for decades. Then Western oil companies came and surprise! There is plenty of oil which communists never found! Same in North Caspian area (now Kazakhstan). Maybe we are seeing the end of easy (cheap, as $5 a barrel) oil, but it's not a peak. AFAIK, no commodity in the world reached a peak. Correct me if I'm wrong.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 21:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Russia's Strategic Intent To Use Energy as a Weapon Has Increased
      What Putin thinks as a strength is actually the weakness. Current Russian budget goes into red with oil under 110. Russia claims $600 billion currency reserves, but Russian government-controlled companies owe Western banks about $400 billion. Russian credit rating was cut immediately after start of war. Russia can't afford to cut gas supplies to West because it really needs that currency. It can posture, cut supplies to Ukraine which doesn't pay full price, cut supplies to some small countries like Estonia, Latvia or Czech Republic. Coincidentally, these are the countries which are the most critical of Russia, and have very good, I'd say personal, historical reasons for that. And least likely to be bullied by Russia even if it means to spend winter in cold apartments. When Russia refused to supply major Lithuanian refinery after Lithuania rejected one of Russian oil companies buyout offer, Lithuania didn't bulge a little bit.
      So, in short:
      Russia tried to show that it can demand respect, but instead scared all surrounding countries into closer ties with West.
      Investors are fleeing, started before the war and continue.
      Credit rating is down, I don't know how government companies are going to refinance.
      If oil goes down a lot, Russia is bankrupt. The same way as USSR was by 1988. But this time, it threatens Russia itself, which, BTW, has only about 50% ethnic Russians in its population.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 21st 21:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Blood on the Streets - Buy Russia
      'And Europe is nothing without Russion oil and gas'

      Wrong. Europe only buys 25% of gas in Russia. And oil can be bought everywhere. But Russia is nothing without Europe buying its gas and oil. It has almost no other export products.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 21st 18:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Blood on the Streets - Buy Russia
      Russia is between sell and sell short. Current government has strong confiscatory tendencies. War and falling commodities prices is just icing on a cake. Two days of up oil is not a trend, and please take a look at RSX: it's divorced from oil lately.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 20th 22:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets
      There are a lot of coins on Ebay right now:

      search.ebay.com/search...=

      If author were right, it wouldn't be the case. Looks like pump and dump, sorry.
      View article »
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