Ted Cranmore, Waterloo ON

Why I Would Not Bet on iPhone over Android

You don't have to bet on one or the other. I see both models doing very well for the next few years and likely being the two dominant mobile platforms going forward. People (other than the geek minority) do not value 'openness' as a quality, it's the fruits of openness that matters. Right now it's only been valued by the geeks, this will change over time as the fruits are harvested. Android will easily be #1, and iPhone OS number 2, but both will be very successful. For the other players, may you be happy with your declining share.

Is Nintendo the Apple of Steve Jobs' Eye?

Gee....you didn't even try to convince me. This is rational because of a blog and because Apple thinks different? Weak weak weak...how about addressing at least some of the obvious reasons why this doesn't make sense?

Palm's Pre: Likely to Break

I agree. I wish Palm well, but feel they are just too late to this party. With this timing, they'd not only have to produce a very good phone, they'd have to produce something that left everyone else in the dust. I really don't think the Pre is sufficiently better than anyone else's device to shift the market in a major way.

The real point here is that Palm will run out of cash once decent but not outstanding sales emerge. At that point, someone with deeper pockets will buy them. The question is...who? Microsoft? Dell?

Will Apple Increase iPhone Value with Rumored Verizon Deal?

Really, this is a matter of 'when' and not 'if'. My guess is either mid-summer with the release of new iPhones, or at Thanksgiving for a run into the holiday, or as late as next year. It's possible AT&T wants a further period of exclusivity with the new versions and is willing to pay for another shot at creating switchers.

Given the hard economic times, AT&T should also offer some very cheap, or even the option of completely opting out of the data plan as some users have good wifi exposure (compare this to Verizon which pressured RIMM to leave wifi right out of the Storm! That's nuts) They should do anything to encourage switching while they still have exclusivity. Many of those who switch, but skip the data plan, will eventually add one in once they run into situations when they wish they had it. Rogers in Canada already allows you to have no data plan and they are not exactly known for being the most customer friendly company!

Recession Takes a Bite Out of Mac Sales

Please include 'revenue share' numbers beside the 'unit share numbers'. The netbook have had a much larger impact on units that revenue. Only by including both can you make a statement worth considering. To provide value, please provide depth.

Apple Gets a Lift, But Analysts Show More Pessimism Than Optimism

All Apple investors should soberly consider Abramsky's points - are they valid in any sense? I would say they are mostly quite valid, but also all easily refuted and when compared to the rest of the market, his $70 target actually appears ridiculous.

No article are Apple valuation can be seriously considered with noting the growing mountain of deferred revenue building up from iPhone sales due to the subscription accounting model. It's guaranteeing a rosy future while at the same time seriously muting earnings for the present. If this isn't seriously discussed, any opinion can be immediately discounted as 'very light' and not worthy of serious merit

On the numbers, I'd give Mike his points if we were in a regular economic cycle or if other companies were doing significantly better. It's here you realize that apple's numbers are being affected by a consumer that isn't spending, but actually apple is fairing far better than it's brethren.

In this terrible economy, who would not put their money on a company with 28 billion in cash and one that is able to maintain margins and still outsell the competition? The only other companies selling anything are cutting margins significantly. Not only are these companies making almost nothing now, their pricing structures are ruined. Oh my god, Apple is seriously undervalued in these conditions. When things pick up (which I don't think will be anytime soon), this company will be a great indicator and will light all the dry powder that is waiting to re-enter the game.

Is It Time for Apple to Buy Back Some Shares?

Listen to everyone talk about the companies you want to invest in today amongst the crisis in the credit marketss. The companies awash with cash are seem as far far superior to those with debt. This is in itself is supporting Apple stock price (imagine what it would be without the cash!). So, we might lose stock price on one hand while we gain on the other! Steve wouldn't waste it now....unless they buy Tivo and integrate it in with Apple TV!

iPhone Sales Drastically Surpass Q4 Consensus; Apple Reaches 10m Goal

Gee...all the other smartphone makers are reporting bad news, and aapl falls badly. It didn't occur to anyone that Apple is stealing market share from them and forcing them to spend big bucks trying to move faster and update their devices? Nah...couldn't be, that would be far too logical.

Are Global Smartphone Sales Poised For Takeoff?

Many seem to missing a key point about the expense of smartphones in developing markets. Is a smartphone more expensive that a cheap handset? Yes. But, in these markets the masses don't have computers at home. So, either they forgo the internet or the spend money at internet cafes, or they finally invest a large amount to buy a computer for home. Now that smartphones have good web browsers, it's actually a cheaper alternative than visiting internet cafes or making the huge investment of a home computer with internet access. What's cheaper? An incremental enhancement to your smartphone, or continually visiting cafes or buying a home computer? Today's smartphones are actually small computers, and the most efficient way to join the wired world. So, in fact, smartphones will become the CHEAPEST way to achieve connectivity in developing countries. Check out the 5-8% numbers for home computers in India and China and it's easy to see the opportunity. It was a guy from Mexico who started helping me understand how the populace in developing countries approach this problem from a very different point of view.

So, smartphones may be more expensive than a plain old handset, but they are the cheaper alternative when all costs and alternatives are considered for being part of the wired world. The obvious advantage of 'always with you' still applies to other countries, but it's just a nice feature for them as opposed to the big feature it is for us.

How Apple Stock Should Be Valued: P/FCF

Great article and right on the head. And "the Graduate" you've just asked the question that I've been wondering -- what other companies use the subscription method of accounting? Apple cannot be unique here, and if they are, why?

The other key point that continues to bother me is the "perception vs reality" idea that Andy makes so well. If conventional evaluation method don't work for Apple, why should we expect it's price to reflect it's true valuation? It will always been dragged down by the traditional method and there will always be many (I assume decreasing over time) that can't properly evaluate Apple. So it seems Apple investors' challenge is not understanding profitablity, but guessing when a critical mass of others figure it out. Ah...there's an easy task.

Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings

Great article! Well worth the read. I agree on the GM from the Shuffle and iTunes side as I've written in other chats. I must admit that despite that, I'm unsure on the iPod numbers for this quarter, this may be the last time they look good before the larger margin pods get eaten by the iPhone. Mac numbers will be very good by all accounts.

The question of the guidance for next quarter I think is key. Will Apple conservative approach cause a big stir? Will it be surprisingly strong, perhaps with knowledge of pending deals and iPhone success in so many countries? I'm on the sidelines, but ready to pounce on a decline.

Apple's 3G iPhone Appears Profitable

At least here in Canada, I can tell you your assumption that
"It’s also likely that Apple had a larger stock of 16GB devices due to higher demand for larger capacity historically" is not true. Stores have had more 8GB unit vs 16GB units. The Rogers stores I was in yesterday finally got replenished after being sold out....and *all* the new units were 8GB, so I walked out without getting one (again!).

I agree the demand is higher for 16GB, but at least here, the supply is higher for the 8GB. Maybe Canada is getting the 8s because of higher supply of 16s elsewhere -- who knows?

Apple's iPhone to Capture Chinese Internet Market

This is right on! I was on a discussion forum many weeks back where a fellow from Mexico described the same premise from a personal experience. It's tough for us to really understand that in some countries "computers in the home" is strange concept. Once we get that, this article is bang on about what that means to iPhone sales and why a China deal will be such huge catalyst to the stock price.

iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users

Question re: "Keep in mind, all of this browsing has occurred on the slow 2.5 EDGE network with only a few million iPhone's in service"

Can we really say the iPhone usage came via EDGE vs iPhone via WiFi? I always assumed the stats didn't differentiate the connection, only that the usage came from an iPhone. Would be truly interesting to compare iPhone usage via EDGE vs Wifi.

BTW - I agree with your premise. The iPhone is a computer in your pocket, not a phone. I think with the new apps from the App Store, the rest of the world will finally get it too.

iPhone in China - What It Will Mean

CNBC's Jim Goldman's interview with Steve Job's clearly states "that you'll see announcements" later this year regarding China. Why do we still talk like it's "iffy", he wouldn't be making statements like that on such an important topic unless they know that is the case.

www.cnbc.com/id/158402...