siegfried's Comments

SeraCare: Five Reasons to Buy This Biotech Microcap with Recurrent Revenue

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:28:30 -0400

there's an interview with the ceo in this special report:
finance.yahoo.com/news...

Banking: Will the New Be Better than the Old?

Sun, 03 May 2009 19:36:42 -0400

Prudent? Comerica has $15 billion in loans to commercial real estate of which more than 1/3 are in CONSTRUCTION loans. and another $5+ billion in loans to auto dealerships mostly in california and the midwest. Toxic balance sheet, watch this stock go to $0/share.

Americans Make Smith & Wesson's Day

Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:52:27 -0500

why not just tax them higher? extra taxes on cigarettes and liquor, they can raise the taxes on guns next.

Cisco Reporting Earnings: A Landslide Trading Opportunity

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 11:50:16 -0500

and if the CSCO stocks trades 3.4% up and then 2.7% down, you should cover the open put sell with a buyside jiggeramoo and a sideways spit in the ocean. what bollocks!

Doo-Doo Bank Drill Down, Part 3: Sun Trust Bank

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 20:40:33 -0400

yes just covered my short in STI. you should at least reference the KO stock on their balance that they said they would realize $1 billion of new tangible equity from this quarter. the management promised this in last conference call, i will wait for that announcement to re-short or if the stock hits $55 again. their HELOC portfolio is what i would call the biggest risk in their loan portfolio, about $15 billion and about 10% will need to be written off in next annual report.

These 32 Commercial Banks and Thrifts May See the Dung Hit the Fan

Fri, 23 May 2008 12:12:59 -0400

agree--the home equity crisis is a ticking time bomb. now take your list and cull it for banks that have already taken the hit, raised additional equity and moved on, then adjust the remainder for banks "hidden assets" like the KO stock on STI's balance sheet that will add $1 billion of equity this quarter and then cull out the banks operating in geographies that have not been hard hit. You will get banks like CMA, BBT, and SNV. Still trading above book and still under reserved. Then its a race--will they have to write down before the recession turns. If the recession lasts through the year and they have to do year end house cleaning (again) then they will trade down 20% to 30% from here. If not, then you are stuck with watching them trade between their 50 day MA and their 200 day MA for the next 2 quarters.

What To Look For In a Regional Bank Stock

Thu, 22 May 2008 16:16:54 -0400

SNV has very high exposure to construction loans in southeast. under reserved to boot.

Raw Data Report: Fast Food Restaurants

Thu, 22 May 2008 15:58:21 -0400

interesting info about NATH. stock is currently uner $14/share with about $6/share in net cash. seems like good value for the money.

Real Estate and Financials: Sell the Rally

Wed, 30 Apr 2008 13:09:08 -0400

how about banks like SNV and BBT that have huge exposure to construction financing? how about bank like STI with $15 billion in home equity loans out of $122 billion in total loans, almost all in GA and FL the hardest hit markets outside of CA and NV? all have traded back up? May be another leg down once the earning season has ended and analysts realize that Visa profits and selling other assets are short term solutions in a longer winding recession.

CoSineTrading at Cash; $20/Share of NOLs

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 17:57:53 -0400

Steel Partners owns over 10% of Nathan's hot dogs, NATH, which has $33 million of net cash on its balance sheet and trades at $85 million market cap. The hot dog business yields about $6 to $7 million in free cash flow annually after deducting capex but adding back the top two exec salaries.

The Worst Is Behind Us (unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing)

Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:07:36 -0400

From STI conference call: "We are not enthusiastically optimistic about what’s going to go on in the home equity market. We think its going to be a pretty long haul over the next year to really if we move through the HELOC specifically. Our home equity loan portfolio is older and more mature and performing really well. It really is the brokered loans where we are really having the majority of our problems. That a little over $1.8 billion, as you look at that portfolio its going to continue to cause problems over the next two or three quarters."

Regional Bank Failures: The Next Shoe to Drop

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 20:21:53 -0400

banks are good banks are bad. except for the list by DSX lover no one is picking stocks to buy or short. and DSX, by the way, your "analysis" of the banks is so top level as to be misinformed--e.g. STI has $17+ billion of construction, land A&D loans and $14+ billion of HELOCs on their balance--all in FL and GA and out of $122 billion portfolio. Oh yeah, and $8 billion of car loans from third parties. So 1/3 of all all assets are in crap categories--before even getting to residential mortgage or Alt A or credit default swaps. Are you long or short that stock? This is drivel, and the original column entry makes me want to vomit. I CAN'T BELIEVE I WASTED MY TIME ON THIS. Very annoying.

Lehman: ‘Creative’ Financing Rides Again

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 20:11:34 -0400

giving an investment banker access to the Fed window is like giving a crackhead access to a cocaine mine.

Jim Rogers' Picks and Pans - Barron's Interview

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 11:01:18 -0400

there are two china closed end funds trading a significant discount to net asset value. CAF which is pure China and TDF which is the Templeton Dragon Fund.

Smelling a Short-Squeeze in Lehman

Fri, 11 Apr 2008 06:08:27 -0400

it's what they teach in business school all the days--i rounded some of the numbers--and it's called "riskless arbitrage". the wall street journal article today that details how LEH is putting bad loans to the Fed (i.e. US Taxpayer) is another example of arbitrage. Bet the quant that figured that one out will get big cash bonus. Rest of us get el shafto taxero.

Smelling a Short-Squeeze in Lehman

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 11:48:00 -0400

didn't LEH just sell $5 billion of 7.25% preferred converitbele into $50 stock non callable for 5 years? Let's see--7.25 * 5 = 36.25 simple %. $50 - (36.25 * 50) = $42. So short LEH to $42, long the preferred, you're hedged to $42, let the upside run. Unless LEH goes bankrupt which is impossible since they have access to Fed window but no minimum capital rules. Thanks Ben Bernanke! And don't you fret none about the poor folks, they can manage to buy $5/gallon gasoline to get to the supermarket to buy $4/loaf wonder bread.

6 Questions on the Relationship Between Investment Banks and the Fed

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:31:11 -0400

Last 2 Fed Reserve CMBS for Treasuries indicate rising demand to dump paper for cash--at higher interest rates

Release Date: April 8, 2008
For release at 10:00 a.m. EDT

On April 7, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.820 percent

Total propositions submitted: $91.569 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.83

Number of bidders: 79

Bids at the stop-out rate were prorated at 67.70% and resulting awards were rounded to the nearest $10,000 (except that all awards below $10,000 are rounded up to $10,000).

The awarded loans will settle on April 10, 2008, and will mature on May 8, 2008. The stop-out rate shown above will apply to all awarded loans.

Release Date: March 25, 2008
For release at 10:00 a.m. EDT

On March 24, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.615 percent

Total propositions submitted: $88.869 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.78

Number of bidders: 88

Bids at the stop-out rate were prorated at 98.87% and resulting awards were rounded to the nearest $10,000 (except that all awards below $10,000 are rounded up to $10,000).

The awarded loans will settle on March 27, 2008, and will mature on April 24, 2008. The stop-out rate shown above will apply to all awarded loans.

Why JP Morgan Asked for a Fed Exemption

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:28:04 -0400

MBIA: Fallout From Loss of Fitch AAA Rating

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:22:55 -0400

Securitization Market Q1 Report: Dramatic Pullback

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:18:06 -0400

Housing Market Tracker - Subprime In Large and Small Banks

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 19:16:39 -0400

Banking Breadline: The Discount Window

Fri, 04 Apr 2008 16:59:16 -0400

giving an investment banker access to the Fed window is like giving a crackhead access to a cocaine mine

Lehman's Preferred Offering: Bullish for Stocks

Tue, 01 Apr 2008 18:10:32 -0400

giving investment bankers access to the Fed is like giving a crackhead access to a cocaine mine.

Financial Stocks: A Look at the Big Picture

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:17:06 -0400

As of 12/31/05 BBT had $11.94 billion in construction and land development loans. As of 12/31/07 BBT had $19.47 billion. The $7.53 billion in construction and land development loans underwritten in the last 2 years represent commercial and residential construction projects underwritten during the boom years of real estate expansion and are now being finished--just in time for the biggest contraction in real estate values since BBT was created. This portfolio of construction loans is now turning into devalued real estate assets. This means the $7.53 billion might be a 50% write off in 2008. Current loss reserves for BBT are slightly over $1 billion. These construction loans are the bomb that could sink BBT just as sure as sub prime mortgages sank Bear Stearns. Don't say you weren't warned.

Act Now, It's the Psychological Rally

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:43:57 -0400

you're not going to simply wait for Q1 announcements? you don't foresee any really negative earnings surprises from banks or from high end consumer products?

Crack Prices Plunge—Fred Reserve

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:17:27 -0400

giving an investment banker access to the Fed window is like giving a crackhead access to a cocaine mine

WaMu Alt-A Pool Revisited

Sat, 29 Mar 2008 10:51:15 -0400

if it was downgraded or put on watch list for downgrades by a ratings agency then it couldn't have been used as collateral for the Fed's unprecedented treasury--abs swap last week. who is holding this paper? still the investment banks? insurance companies? fixed income mutual funds?

Viacom Making the Right Moves

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 19:22:56 -0400

This stock has been dead money for 10 years. What's the catalyst to get it moving? Video players in Hertz locations? you're kidding right?

WaMu Alt-A Pool Revisited

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:42:00 -0400

What institution holds this paper now? Is it a REIT or the Fed? How can that be tracked?

That would be good intel for the short side of this trade.

I'm on Meredith Whitney's Side

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:37:03 -0400

Do you think these situations have improved or worsened since 12/31/07?

Synovus Financial: construction loans as a percentage of shareholder's equity as of 12/31/07: 233%
BB&T: construction loans as a percentage of shareholder's equity as of 12/31/07: 154%
Regions Financial: $7.2 billion in residential construction loans in Florida as of 12/31/07. Total reserve for losses for entire loan portfolio on same date: <$1.4 billion.
Comerica: $3.5 billion of real estate construction loans on "watch list" as of 12/31/07. Total reserve for losses for entire loan portfolio: $557 million.
SunTrust: $3.6 billion in residential construction to perm loans, $2.9 billion in land acquisition and development loans, $1.7 billion in Alt A residential mortgage loans, $14.9 billion in home equity loans , $13.8 billion in construction loans, total loan portfolio: $122.3 billion.