win's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155834/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/120176-stocks-with-the-largest-short-positions?source=feed#comment-389034 389034 Sun, 15 Feb 2009 08:28:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114754-crude-reality-how-long-can-oil-stay-down?source=feed#comment-356412 356412 ]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 08:55:10 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114157-small-cap-etf-underperformance-signals-continuing-investor-fears?source=feed#comment-353036 353036 Mon, 12 Jan 2009 06:20:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112604-what-will-happen-if-america-returns-to-an-historical-savings-rate?source=feed#comment-342773 342773 This is well thought out and carefully written. Thank you for sharing.]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:13:05 -0500 This is well thought out and carefully written. Thank you for sharing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112379-prophet-bernanke-plans-for-inflation?source=feed#comment-339740 339740
"By Patrick Rial and Lynn Thomasson

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks, Asian real estate and commodities are investors' best bets as faster inflation erodes returns in the rest of the world's markets, said investor Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

``Demand for commodities and oil will not vanish.'' Faber said at a conference in Tokyo. ``The shift in demand that drove up commodity prices is not going to go away.''

Record prices for commodities have accelerated inflation around the world and lifted shares of raw material and energy producers. Oil more than doubled since the beginning of last year, while products including coal, rice and fertilizer also reached record highs in 2008.

Faber, who told investors to buy gold as the metal began a seven-year rally, predicted inflation may boost Japanese share prices and Asian property will benefit as more people gain access to mortgages. ]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 11:14:29 -0500
"By Patrick Rial and Lynn Thomasson

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks, Asian real estate and commodities are investors' best bets as faster inflation erodes returns in the rest of the world's markets, said investor Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

``Demand for commodities and oil will not vanish.'' Faber said at a conference in Tokyo. ``The shift in demand that drove up commodity prices is not going to go away.''

Record prices for commodities have accelerated inflation around the world and lifted shares of raw material and energy producers. Oil more than doubled since the beginning of last year, while products including coal, rice and fertilizer also reached record highs in 2008.

Faber, who told investors to buy gold as the metal began a seven-year rally, predicted inflation may boost Japanese share prices and Asian property will benefit as more people gain access to mortgages. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111584-artificial-u-s-dollar-rally-is-coming-to-an-end?source=feed#comment-333950 333950 The author is not comparing the Dollar to the Euro; in fact, if you read the article to the end, he admits the possibility that Europe will be worse of than the United States. He is advocating for Asian currencies, in the belief that global economic power is going to shift. That, in my opinion, is undeniable; even if the U.S. remains an economic superpower, as I believe it may (and hope it does), Asia, in relative terms, is undervalued compared to future potential. And some of their currencies (and I don't mean the Japanese Yen) are severely undervalued.]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:15:46 -0500 The author is not comparing the Dollar to the Euro; in fact, if you read the article to the end, he admits the possibility that Europe will be worse of than the United States. He is advocating for Asian currencies, in the belief that global economic power is going to shift. That, in my opinion, is undeniable; even if the U.S. remains an economic superpower, as I believe it may (and hope it does), Asia, in relative terms, is undervalued compared to future potential. And some of their currencies (and I don't mean the Japanese Yen) are severely undervalued.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106411-john-hussman-the-market-is-not-in-uncharted-territory?source=feed#comment-308271 308271 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:54:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106045-stock-market-is-the-rally-real?source=feed#comment-305990 305990 Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:55:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104937-is-jim-cramer-right-is-apple-really-a-market-barometer?source=feed#comment-301039 301039 Sun, 09 Nov 2008 08:47:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100599-buffett-likes-to-be-early-don-t-rush-to-follow?source=feed#comment-285921 285921 Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:21:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99960-the-market-s-disassociation-with-reality?source=feed#comment-282754 282754
Really? Now that is really stretching the numbers.

Check your math, sir. From peak to trough - from October 2007 to October 10, 2008, the SP 500 fell from 1560 to 844. 40% off of 1560 is SP 936. We fell 46% from peak to the recent trough.



]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 08:33:11 -0400
Really? Now that is really stretching the numbers.

Check your math, sir. From peak to trough - from October 2007 to October 10, 2008, the SP 500 fell from 1560 to 844. 40% off of 1560 is SP 936. We fell 46% from peak to the recent trough.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97374-rally-now-wheels-come-off-later-faber?source=feed#comment-266032 266032 Agree that the credit markets will present great opportunity. How do you invest in those -- as a small investor?]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:08:14 -0400 Agree that the credit markets will present great opportunity. How do you invest in those -- as a small investor?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95234-alternative-buyers-for-lehman-and-not-just-the-usual-suspects?source=feed#comment-253068 253068 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:02:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93285-real-disposable-income-up-in-q2?source=feed#comment-242288 242288
Real Disposable income obviously increased as a result of the stimulus payments. How is that news? It would be nice if you had some predictions on what would happen to Real Disposable Income (RDI) AFTER the stimulus payments are done.

Take a look at this graph from the Government BEA, people. It may be more helpful:

www.bea.gov/briefrm/dp...

And, yes, Mr. Perry, I do wonder about your motives.]]> Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:51:28 -0400
Real Disposable income obviously increased as a result of the stimulus payments. How is that news? It would be nice if you had some predictions on what would happen to Real Disposable Income (RDI) AFTER the stimulus payments are done.

Take a look at this graph from the Government BEA, people. It may be more helpful:

www.bea.gov/briefrm/dp...

And, yes, Mr. Perry, I do wonder about your motives.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93216-u-s-in-recession-not-so-fast?source=feed#comment-242286 242286 Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:41:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93216-u-s-in-recession-not-so-fast?source=feed#comment-242285 242285 Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:40:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93225-why-apple-stock-is-poised-to-go-flat-at-best?source=feed#comment-241622 241622
1) Big numbers - If Apple overtakes PCs as the dominant computers worldwide, this is not a concern.

2) Jobs' health - In my view, this is only a short-term concern and only a serious concern for the next two years or so. If something happens to Jobs within the next two years (I pray that nothing does), I and every idiot out there will short Apple for one month or so. Then there will be others in Apple who will take over. There ARE others, who are very prominent within the company. Within the next two years these others will become more and more prominent without. ]]> Fri, 29 Aug 2008 10:52:59 -0400
1) Big numbers - If Apple overtakes PCs as the dominant computers worldwide, this is not a concern.

2) Jobs' health - In my view, this is only a short-term concern and only a serious concern for the next two years or so. If something happens to Jobs within the next two years (I pray that nothing does), I and every idiot out there will short Apple for one month or so. Then there will be others in Apple who will take over. There ARE others, who are very prominent within the company. Within the next two years these others will become more and more prominent without. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92374-this-market-needs-more-volume?source=feed#comment-238421 238421 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:47:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91417-goldman-readying-short-position-initiation-sequence?source=feed#comment-235602 235602
]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:36:09 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90515-time-to-sell-this-bear-market-bounce?source=feed#comment-228971 228971 Thanks for the thoughts. I agree with most. Problem is you offer no reason for shortin the Q's, and so far that trade's been a big loser. I'd rather short the DIA or the SPX, which I will on the next big up day. ]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 19:46:46 -0400 Thanks for the thoughts. I agree with most. Problem is you offer no reason for shortin the Q's, and so far that trade's been a big loser. I'd rather short the DIA or the SPX, which I will on the next big up day. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87431-what-planned-sohu-spinoff-says-about-games-and-china?source=feed#comment-226815 226815 So we got the pre-Olympic slump (in anticipation of the post-Olympic slump). To me it now seems as if many Chinese equities are undervalued on a fundamental basis. How long before you expect a bounce/ trend change?]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 13:57:02 -0400 So we got the pre-Olympic slump (in anticipation of the post-Olympic slump). To me it now seems as if many Chinese equities are undervalued on a fundamental basis. How long before you expect a bounce/ trend change?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88211-what-goes-up-short-term-reprieve-likely-in-august?source=feed#comment-221618 221618 Very helpful article. Now that we've given up much of the gains, do you anticipate a continuation of the ST move up, or a big trend move down?
]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:49:46 -0400 Very helpful article. Now that we've given up much of the gains, do you anticipate a continuation of the ST move up, or a big trend move down?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87386-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-216438 216438 Briefing.com is expecting a BIG beat on GDP - they predict 2.8% and perhaps even 3%. I'm buying some calls on weakness this week.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 10:28:13 -0400 Briefing.com is expecting a BIG beat on GDP - they predict 2.8% and perhaps even 3%. I'm buying some calls on weakness this week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86259-five-key-quotes-from-apple-s-conference-call?source=feed#comment-211957 211957 I compared the specs on the most basic Macbook ($1099) to the most Advanced ASUS ($649) on the link you provided above. The MAC blew the ASUS out of the water. Here is the link to the Macbooks: store.apple.com/us/bro...

Factor in the Apple customer service, the fact that Apples don't get viruses, and the amazing operating system, and for me, the ASUS doesn't compete. Of course I am a MAC (company laptop) and PC (wife's computer) user, so I know the difference. As just one example, right now, I am running 35-40 open tabs on my Macbook, in three different browsers - one Safari and two Firefox. I can't even think about doing that my wife's Dell.

PLUS, they're offering a FREE I Pod Touch if you buy a MAC. Any MAC. That's a $300 value. Take that out of the $1099 and you're left with $899. It's a no brainer.

]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:19:24 -0400 I compared the specs on the most basic Macbook ($1099) to the most Advanced ASUS ($649) on the link you provided above. The MAC blew the ASUS out of the water. Here is the link to the Macbooks: store.apple.com/us/bro...

Factor in the Apple customer service, the fact that Apples don't get viruses, and the amazing operating system, and for me, the ASUS doesn't compete. Of course I am a MAC (company laptop) and PC (wife's computer) user, so I know the difference. As just one example, right now, I am running 35-40 open tabs on my Macbook, in three different browsers - one Safari and two Firefox. I can't even think about doing that my wife's Dell.

PLUS, they're offering a FREE I Pod Touch if you buy a MAC. Any MAC. That's a $300 value. Take that out of the $1099 and you're left with $899. It's a no brainer.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86195-apple-s-a-buy-under-150?source=feed#comment-211940 211940 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:00:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210748 210748
1. Agree with your position on Apple not including China and India I Phone revenue until deals are through. Additionally, due to supply problems there may not be very many I Phones sold in those two countries in Q3.

2. Maintain that conditions are ripe for a pop. Sentiment is bad.

3. We are at the 38% retracement of the gain from the post January crash to the May highs. Rough calculation: 190 - 115 = 75; 0.62 * 75= 46.5; 115+46.5=161.5.]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:58:33 -0400
1. Agree with your position on Apple not including China and India I Phone revenue until deals are through. Additionally, due to supply problems there may not be very many I Phones sold in those two countries in Q3.

2. Maintain that conditions are ripe for a pop. Sentiment is bad.

3. We are at the 38% retracement of the gain from the post January crash to the May highs. Rough calculation: 190 - 115 = 75; 0.62 * 75= 46.5; 115+46.5=161.5.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210680 210680
1. I Phone revenue from China and India. I have personally seen the rise of disposable income in India and read about it in China, and observed the hunger for all things Apple in both countries. Guidance may include calculations of SOME I Phone revenue from economies that have a combined middle class of 700 million people (China 450 million + India 250 milion), WHEN the expected deals come through.

2. MAC sales China and India. Apple is just starting to open stores in China and India. Apple has created HUGE mystique in both countries. In these countries where Macs have not been widely available, the I Pod and I Phone halo effect has mostly just translated into an unsatiated hunger for all things Apple.

I'll admit that these points cover mostly LT revenue streams, and you are modeling conditions for a very ST sell off, but remember that a so-far undisclosed deal may well factor into guidance.

Look at AAPL intraday weakness. Look at how AAPL has already fallen 5% within the past 2.5 business days. In my experience, these are good conditions for takeoff tomorrow. Careful with the short. Would be sad if you LOST money for this fine piece of work.]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:05:10 -0400
1. I Phone revenue from China and India. I have personally seen the rise of disposable income in India and read about it in China, and observed the hunger for all things Apple in both countries. Guidance may include calculations of SOME I Phone revenue from economies that have a combined middle class of 700 million people (China 450 million + India 250 milion), WHEN the expected deals come through.

2. MAC sales China and India. Apple is just starting to open stores in China and India. Apple has created HUGE mystique in both countries. In these countries where Macs have not been widely available, the I Pod and I Phone halo effect has mostly just translated into an unsatiated hunger for all things Apple.

I'll admit that these points cover mostly LT revenue streams, and you are modeling conditions for a very ST sell off, but remember that a so-far undisclosed deal may well factor into guidance.

Look at AAPL intraday weakness. Look at how AAPL has already fallen 5% within the past 2.5 business days. In my experience, these are good conditions for takeoff tomorrow. Careful with the short. Would be sad if you LOST money for this fine piece of work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85376-why-i-m-shorting-apple-ahead-of-earnings?source=feed#comment-210632 210632 Great analysis. I'd be careful with the short. You could be 70% correct, but still lose your shorts if you don't fill it in time. Example: Tuesday: Apple opens down 5-7% on lower guidance and emotional reaction just as you predict, sometime in the afternoon gets a repeat upgrade to Conviction Buy at Goldman along with a few nice comments from other analysts, and rockets up $20 in two days on short covering. IMO, a very possible scenario. ]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:21:59 -0400 Great analysis. I'd be careful with the short. You could be 70% correct, but still lose your shorts if you don't fill it in time. Example: Tuesday: Apple opens down 5-7% on lower guidance and emotional reaction just as you predict, sometime in the afternoon gets a repeat upgrade to Conviction Buy at Goldman along with a few nice comments from other analysts, and rockets up $20 in two days on short covering. IMO, a very possible scenario. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85776-etf-pick-of-the-week-proshares-ultrashort-oil-gas?source=feed#comment-209811 209811 Sun, 20 Jul 2008 11:13:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83117-apple-is-positioned-to-take-olympic-gold?source=feed#comment-195229 195229
Oil crossed $140, despite China, U.S. Congress and Saudi attempts to break it. If it doesn't fall drastically on Monday, it will rise - there are a whole bunch of longs (GS, MS,...) trying to get it to $150 or higher by July 4. If oil goes up $10 in the next week, it will crimp the bounce you may be expecting next week.

In my opinion, GS and MS (and the Energy Secretary) are trying to pump oil to one last high. When they decide that it must break (I think within a month or so), we will start to get analysts saying that Oil could fall to $120. They've prepared for that: MS says that at $150 - no sooner and no later - Oil will magically start to reduce demand and affect price. That's it. And of course their saying so now will have no effect on the price.

Any way, in sum: I agree, but watch the oil. Good site, BTW! I might add it to my on-off blog.]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:29:18 -0400
Oil crossed $140, despite China, U.S. Congress and Saudi attempts to break it. If it doesn't fall drastically on Monday, it will rise - there are a whole bunch of longs (GS, MS,...) trying to get it to $150 or higher by July 4. If oil goes up $10 in the next week, it will crimp the bounce you may be expecting next week.

In my opinion, GS and MS (and the Energy Secretary) are trying to pump oil to one last high. When they decide that it must break (I think within a month or so), we will start to get analysts saying that Oil could fall to $120. They've prepared for that: MS says that at $150 - no sooner and no later - Oil will magically start to reduce demand and affect price. That's it. And of course their saying so now will have no effect on the price.

Any way, in sum: I agree, but watch the oil. Good site, BTW! I might add it to my on-off blog.]]>