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Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?

I think Cramer may have been speaking of Apple's predictive value. Simultaneous price correlation and the other tools you use would be useless to assess this metric. Instead, I would use a delay of one day and assess AAPL's price correlation with the SP, then 2 days and so on up to 5 days. Then I would do the same on a weekly chart. That is one way of measuring predictive value.

Alternative Buyers for Lehman (and Not Just the Usual Suspects)

Scott, you're funny. Thanks for the laughs.

Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

1) Big numbers 2) Jobs mortality are the only arguments worth responding to.

1) Big numbers - If Apple overtakes PCs as the dominant computers worldwide, this is not a concern.

2) Jobs' health - In my view, this is only a short-term concern and only a serious concern for the next two years or so. If something happens to Jobs within the next two years (I pray that nothing does), I and every idiot out there will short Apple for one month or so. Then there will be others in Apple who will take over. There ARE others, who are very prominent within the company. Within the next two years these others will become more and more prominent without.

Five Key Quotes from Apple's Conference Call

Lisa,
I compared the specs on the most basic Macbook ($1099) to the most Advanced ASUS ($649) on the link you provided above. The MAC blew the ASUS out of the water. Here is the link to the Macbooks: store.apple.com/us/bro...

Factor in the Apple customer service, the fact that Apples don't get viruses, and the amazing operating system, and for me, the ASUS doesn't compete. Of course I am a MAC (company laptop) and PC (wife's computer) user, so I know the difference. As just one example, right now, I am running 35-40 open tabs on my Macbook, in three different browsers - one Safari and two Firefox. I can't even think about doing that my wife's Dell.

PLUS, they're offering a FREE I Pod Touch if you buy a MAC. Any MAC. That's a $300 value. Take that out of the $1099 and you're left with $899. It's a no brainer.

Apple's a Buy Under $150

I guess other people felt similarly. Wonder if Apple will come down to 149.75 again.

Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings

Ben,

1. Agree with your position on Apple not including China and India I Phone revenue until deals are through. Additionally, due to supply problems there may not be very many I Phones sold in those two countries in Q3.

2. Maintain that conditions are ripe for a pop. Sentiment is bad.

3. We are at the 38% retracement of the gain from the post January crash to the May highs. Rough calculation: 190 - 115 = 75; 0.62 * 75= 46.5; 115+46.5=161.5.

Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings

Once again, fine analysis, Ben. Two things that I don't think you factor for that may actually cause a surprise upside in guidance:

1. I Phone revenue from China and India. I have personally seen the rise of disposable income in India and read about it in China, and observed the hunger for all things Apple in both countries. Guidance may include calculations of SOME I Phone revenue from economies that have a combined middle class of 700 million people (China 450 million + India 250 milion), WHEN the expected deals come through.

2. MAC sales China and India. Apple is just starting to open stores in China and India. Apple has created HUGE mystique in both countries. In these countries where Macs have not been widely available, the I Pod and I Phone halo effect has mostly just translated into an unsatiated hunger for all things Apple.

I'll admit that these points cover mostly LT revenue streams, and you are modeling conditions for a very ST sell off, but remember that a so-far undisclosed deal may well factor into guidance.

Look at AAPL intraday weakness. Look at how AAPL has already fallen 5% within the past 2.5 business days. In my experience, these are good conditions for takeoff tomorrow. Careful with the short. Would be sad if you LOST money for this fine piece of work.

Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings

Ben,
Great analysis. I'd be careful with the short. You could be 70% correct, but still lose your shorts if you don't fill it in time. Example: Tuesday: Apple opens down 5-7% on lower guidance and emotional reaction just as you predict, sometime in the afternoon gets a repeat upgrade to Conviction Buy at Goldman along with a few nice comments from other analysts, and rockets up $20 in two days on short covering. IMO, a very possible scenario.

Apple Is Positioned to Take Olympic Gold

Thanks, Zach. Your analysis and plan (last para) match mine. There is one wildcard, however: Oil.

Oil crossed $140, despite China, U.S. Congress and Saudi attempts to break it. If it doesn't fall drastically on Monday, it will rise - there are a whole bunch of longs (GS, MS,...) trying to get it to $150 or higher by July 4. If oil goes up $10 in the next week, it will crimp the bounce you may be expecting next week.

In my opinion, GS and MS (and the Energy Secretary) are trying to pump oil to one last high. When they decide that it must break (I think within a month or so), we will start to get analysts saying that Oil could fall to $120. They've prepared for that: MS says that at $150 - no sooner and no later - Oil will magically start to reduce demand and affect price. That's it. And of course their saying so now will have no effect on the price.

Any way, in sum: I agree, but watch the oil. Good site, BTW! I might add it to my on-off blog.

A Real iPhone Challenger - Barron's

Surur,
You haven't answered the serious factual inaccuracy charges Roberts made. If it's true that ADOBE, Mozilla, Slingplayer and Skpe support (or will soon support) the I Phone, then you have posted a serious bunch of falsities. And your refusal to even address your earlier claims and the charges against you casts suspicion upon your motives.

-Nitin

Apple Strikes Advertising Gold

Hello - why publish an article without analysis or evidence to support it. If your only evidence for the $300 target is a quote from Kass, why publish a new article?

This is a fan boy piece, with no technical or fundamental analysis.

And, BTW, Apple may well go to $300, but if it does on "bubble-like status" it will pop like a bubble as well.

Apple and RIM Battle for the Corporate Mobile Market

Top_tier - nice comment.

Peter Lynch - Nokia is up there in Europe, but Asia will be a big Apple market. Go to China or India. The I Phone is a status symbol - it's the Ferrari of phones.

Two Notes on Apple; Bad News Appears Priced In

I agree, Daedalus. Analysts don't want to look like fools - so they drop their price targets to match the share price. Watch when the I Phone hits Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Brazil, etc. Watch when the next earnings come out in May. Targets will suddenly start going up again.

That said, I don't think $160- 180 is an unreasonable 1-year target - for share price multiple reasons (as the RBC analyst points out). People are less willing to pay high multiples in this market.

Apple: Is All This Angst Really Warranted?

Hi,
I'm actually wondering why Apple doesn't have a bigger presence outside the U.S. There are thousands of people with I Phones in India and China - all bought here and activated there with "non-legit" carriers. Apple is a craze among the nouveau rich in developing countries. I am from India (and traveling there in a month) and have been told that I can make a nice profit buying I Phones here and selling them there for twice as much.

I am actually going to write Steve Jobs about opening some Apple stores in India (as in me opening a store for him). I know his products have a market. A bigger international presence will nullify the issues with the U.S. consumer-driven recession.