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Dry Bulk Shipper Anomaly in Spot Pricing Creates Buy Opportunity

Its $117 for a Capesize today, and the information that the rates are going up to $135 to two years is innacurate. Look at the deployment fleet on DRYS website and you will see that it has Capesizes for $76K per day on Spot, because those are the rates that the chartered got between Nov-Dec when the trip was booked. That is huge drop from the record $184K per day booked on the previous trip. DRYS Spot rates are so volatile also because of port Congestion, in some ports of Australia the waiting time is higher than 30 days so there's no need to rush the shipments if the bulks are going to be waiting for that long. DRYS has massive debt, and unpredictable earnings, that's why is not worth $120 today. The record earnings for Q4 will not be duplicated again, and if you look at the fleet deployment you will see that most of the Panamax Fleet is chartered at rates between $45K and $60K a day and not the $85K a day it got on Q4. According to analysts in the Capital Conferences the average for Panamax for 2008 is 55K and 105K for Capesize. So make your earnings forecast based on those, and not the 95K and $175 it made on Q4. The Chinese economy will cool off after the Olympics and with that 65% increase in Iron Ore Prices and 7.5% inflation, China is exporting inflation that the World is not going to be able to pay. All these risks are priced in the Stock.