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    • Thu Apr 17th 18:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"
      SHORT SHORT SHOT. Words from Carter Worth in Fast money. Too much gas too fast. I don't see them raising prices next year, and once the commodity Bubble POP's no way this company can sustain existing P/E.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 13:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Eye on Plane Leasing Sector
      These things have come down, because they are heavy leveraged and keep missing the numbers. AYR and GLS have missed earnings the last 2 quarters. I won't be surprised if GLS misses again next week. FLY is the worst, borrowing in excess of Free Cash Flow to pay for the dividend. AYR and GLS have paid huge dividends above EPS because they been able to utilize the large depreciation expense, and easily available Finance from commercial paper to finance a large percentage of the fleet. Now the Financing is not that easy, and creditors are requiring lower debts on Net Asset Value of the Planes, which will contract the Dividend. AYR had to cut the dividend over 50%, and I assume that GLS will do so in the near term as well. I would wait until GLS reports before jumping in, AYR is interesting in the $10-$11 level with a 10% Dividend being supported by a dividend payout of 60% of EPS. Unlike the Shipping sector, where charterer's have to ship an excess of in demand for commodities, and Ship charter contracts are not dependent on fuel prices, the Air Leasing companies clients, are not as stable because the high fuel prices is putting bankruptcy pressure is smaller unprofitable airlines, making the business more risky, despite long-term leasing agreements with the airlines.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 20:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My Last Word on Our National City Discussion
      Three words on National City BUY BUY BUY.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 13:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      National City Just a Victim of Its Industry
      HBCK great employment of Capital, keep buying back stock at 29 P/E.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 13:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      National City Just a Victim of Its Industry
      HCBK-overpriced, horrible ROE, excessive conservatism. 29.8 P/E
      SHORT HCBK go long any other of the below book banks, you will become millionare, its not too hard to figure it out.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 13:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      14 Bank and I-Bank Write-Downs
      If you think the worst is yet to come, then give the disclosure of what you own, or short of. These article is not helping anyone make a better investment decision. 400,000 New houses in Inventory, 600K estimated 2008 sales, although I Don't believe any of those two(1.750 Million were sold in the peak year). 4 Million existing home sales on Inventory, 1 Million foreclosures last year, 1.3 estimated for these year. All the foreclosures don't add up to $1 Trillion in these estimates, and if they are repackaged at 50% discount, there's a maximum of $500 Billion in loses. I see $250 Billion in writedowns so far, so the worst is clearly over. Homebuilders inventory, has gone down considerable, and once Existing Home sales inventory drops, we can look forward. With Banks selling at 60-80 cents on Book, its the best time to go long NCC, RF, FITB, HBAN, because those Europeans monsters are full of cash, and looking to invest. Other midsize Regionals selling close to book are BBT, CMA without subprime crap.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      National City Just a Victim of Its Industry
      I agree with most of this issues except for the Buyback.NCC is selling for .39 cents on Book. Where do you Townsend gets the 6.53% Tier one capital, if the Bank had 13.4 Billion in Capital over 150 Billion in assets, thats way more than 6.53%, and it will have a huge profit in Q1, because it has a $406 Million profit for 1/3 of its stake in VISA. The other 2/3 of its stake will be unrealized, and is worth more because VISA shares are up. The Buybacks were stupid, but the dividends were not, all these Banks paying high dividends were paying about 50% of earnings, while growing at lower levels, so those dividends were sustainable, as long as the asset quality did not deteriorate. NCC, FITB, WM, C, WB have had horrible risk management, in the other hand, RF, USB have high dividend yields, and asset qualitiy is still excellent for USB, and manageable for RF, I would like to see when CMA reports on Thursday, how are their assets, because after today's reports of USB, and RF, the credit conditions, are manageable by most financial institutions. NCC is worth more than the $7.5 it closed for yesterday, Is is not the same JUNK as WAMU, NCC has a strong franchise, and corporate clients, unlike WAMU who only has mortgages, as earning assets, and horrible credit risk management.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 09:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      National City Blew It
      NCC is selling for .39 cents on Book. Where do you get the 6.53% Tier one capital, if the Bank had 13.4 Billion in Capital over 150 Billion in assets, thats way more than 6.53%, and it will have a huge profit in Q1, because it has a $406 Million profit for 1/3 of its stake in VISA. The other 2/3 of its stake will be unrealized, and is worth more because VISA shares are up. The Buybacks were stupid, but the dividends were not, all these Banks paying high dividends were paying about 50% of earnings, while growing at lower levels, so those dividends were sustainable, as long as the asset quality did not deteriorate. NCC, FITB, WM, C, WB have had horrible risk management, in the other hand, RF, USB have high dividend yields, and asset qualitiy is still excellent for USB, and manageable for RF, I would like to see when CMA reports on Thursday, how are their assets, because after today's reports of USB, and RF, the credit conditions, are manageable by most financial institutions. NCC is worth more than the $7.5 it closed for yesterday, Is is not the same JUNK as WAMU, NCC has a strong franchise, and corporate clients, unlike WAMU who only has mortgages, as earning assets, and horrible credit risk management.
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    • Sun Apr 13th 18:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Rogers' Picks and Pans - Barron's Interview
      Who's going to keep paying 100% increases year over year in commodities while being able to afford them? commodities are so overvalued, and with 8.5% Chinese inflation is just a matter of time before they begin plunging. It seems so fair to say that there's is economic growth in Chindia with over 2.5 Billion in people, but the sad truth is that over half of them are poor, and no one can sustain a 100% increase in commodities, Specially because the income of these poor people did not doubled from last year. Counting the days, wheat, oil, and corn go down like falling knives. As for shorting C, I'm not so sure, over 50% of the Business is International, if shares don't recover they are going to be buying back their own stock like crazy within the next 6 months.
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    • Sat Apr 12th 11:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Regional Bank Failures: The Next Shoe to Drop
      Let's look at the top banks in terms of Assets and you will see that none of them are going to fail.
      1. Citigroup - Sound and Safe Over 50% of Revenues International, Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Asia are growing.
      2. Bank of America. Sound and Safe.
      3. JPMorgan & Chase. No need to say how safe this is.
      4. Wachovia Bank, 10% Capital/Total Assets, excess capital, should survive this crisis easily.
      5. Wells Fargo. Sound and strong. Some California exposure, but this bank is good.
      6. WAMU. Horrible Management, but with the recent Capital injection will not fail.
      7. Bank of New York Mellon. No problems with any JUNK.
      8. USBank. Great Management, and strong franchise, safe as a rock.
      9. Sun Trust. Questionable Loans but should be able to survive. With under 200K Billion in assets, could be easily be assumed by one of top 2-5, or Foreign Barclays, RBS, HSBC or STD.
      10-15 don't know the exact order, but all in the range of 100-150 Billion in Assets.
      10. National City. With 150K Billion in assets, selling at .45 cents on Book, deeply discounted, and has 13 Billion in Capital, greatly above the Bacilea Requirements. Can take up to $6 Billion in Chargeoffs can still make it because, it has a $1Billion profit from its stake in VISA.
      This one can be bought by BNS at a big Premium from where is selling right now.
      11. Regions Financial. Some Exposure to Florida, and Construction Loans. Selling at .75 cents to Book Value. This one will make it, has excess capital, and could be an easy Takeover.
      12. KEY Bank. This one was looking to acquire National City I don't see that coming, but it is possible that some merger with National City, Key or Fifth Third could arise as a result of this. These are banks based in Cincinnati, and Cleveland, and could make a stronger franchise by merging two of the three. Their market values make them takeover candidates by foreign banks looking to expand.
      13. Fifth Third Bank- Look at 12 and 10.
      14. BBT- Strong Franchise with no subprime JUnk, good profit and steady fees, not subject to deterioration.
      15. DOn't know who really holds this spot, but could be the U.S. Branch of Barclays PLC, or RBS, or ING, 3 great international Groups, looking to grow in the U.S. and willing to buy anything cheap above this least.
      Overall, none of this Banks is going under, and except for WAMU I would be buying any of them of Weakness. WAMU's Management is just HORRIBLE! and they gave out over 30% of the Bank to Private Equity for FREE, no creativity, just STUPIDITY, Killinger should be fired immediately, and that transaction should be voided! With Lehman Bros, doing a convertible Preferred Stock yielding 7.5%, WAMU, should have done the same thing with the best Mortgage Loans in its portfolio as a colateral (Those written over 5 years ago), the recent transaction just shows how horrible some of these institutions management are, and that they should be taken over by decent foreign Banks, who really know how to manage Capital.
      Buy Barclays at 7 times earnings, ING at 6.5 times earnings, LYG at 7 Times earnings or STD at 10 times earnings. All of them have dividends of 5.5% or more, without the SUBPRIME JUNK, and are stable franchises looking to take advantage of mispriced US Banks.
      HSB can also be added to this recent list.
      I love Banks!!!!! NOne of this will fail, don't need to wait until they are up 20% in two days to buy them, because you will miss the biggest opportunity in history.
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    • Fri Apr 4th 11:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Banking Breadline: The Discount Window
      Nobody is lining up at the Banking Window to obtain cash. Out of those $33.14 Billion $30 where lend to JPM Morgan, for the BSC takeover. If you take down $30 from $45.14 Billion thats a miniscule 15.14 Billion, that Banks have borrowed from the Discount window which is nothing compared to total US Debt of $48 Trillion. Banks have excess liquidity, and whoever is borrowing is doing so in order to take advantage of low rates, with Commercial Bank Funding being reduced to less than 2% which is what they are paying on CD's now, the Discount window is not really an option, or a need for them. Investment banks are in a different category, because they're structure is different, so they can borrow from the discount window, and buy Fixed Income securities that yield more than double the cost of funds.
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    • Wed Apr 2nd 23:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stock Valuations On the Rise
      The P/E of Financials is misleading. After Q1 the Trailing P/E is must likely going to be negative because of the writedowns in Q1 and Q4, However, the Forward Looking P/E is going to be the best one among all of the S/P sectors. After the Federal Reserve cuts, banks are printing money, and write-downs, are going to become write-ups, something that most ignorant persons are unwilling to believe. Load on the Banks after they report in March, the kitchen sink quarter, specially on C who's 50% of the earnings come from International Operations, that are not affected by the sub-prime debacle.
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    • Wed Apr 2nd 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Money Center Banks - The Greater Fool
      Vernon you're a fool. Money-center banks only underwrite corporate loans, to increase the liquidity of those assets, and to decrease to total costs to the borrower. They make more money by keeping those loans themselves, and earning the interest spread on them. So now because nobody wants to buy corporate loans in the secondary market these loans are no good ah? that's the biggest nonsense I have ever heard. These loans will remain in the books of the banks, forever because the default rates are lower than they have ever been, and the Net interest margin is now huge with the fed lowering the rates. Whoever thinks is getting corporate loans for 70 cents on a dollar is dreaming. Banks can take the writedowns under FASB157 rules, but they will become writeups once the nonsense clears the market.
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    • Wed Apr 2nd 11:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      DryShips and the Oil Rush
      Stop trying to praise the acquisition of 30% in Ocean Rig. That was the most horrible investment that shareholder money could be employed for. OCR has two rigs, one which was down for almost 2 months last year, the company lost money and has tons of debt, it is not even clear of how the transaction took place. Did OCR issue new shares? and use the proceeds to pay off debt, obviously not, because the Financial Statements are horrible. Even with Rigs being leased at $600 to $700K a day, the company could not make a positive return for its investors, the Deep Ocean Rig market is strong, but OCR financial condition is horrible, and it doesn't appear to be improving anytime soon. Why overpay for a partial share of something bad, when there where RIGS in the market being dispossed and offered by Transocean Inc, after the merger with Global Santa Fe at much better rates because of anti-competitive reasons. Hercules bought two Drill ships, debt free at much better prices than the OCR partial investment. Georgios is not getting paid to diversify and waste the company's money, he should employ Dry's mula to pay off debt and do share buybacks, or Dividend payments. Until he makes the Balance Sheet, and stops making horrible investment decisions, DRYS will be the laughing stock in the DryBULK sector.
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    • Fri Mar 28th 13:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Diana Shipping: Prime Rebound Candidate
      SBLK, has an old fleet. DRYS earnings are very volatile, any plunge in Spot rates, there goes the stock, aslo 1.25 billion Debt. PRGN, GNK, SBLK, and NM are highly leveraged with older ships. DSX is sound, the higher P/E does not reflect the company's strong capital, and with 50% earnings growth for 2008 is misleading, meanwhile DRYS will not grow EPS by 50% and has to serve that Huge Debt. Other carriers that pay higher dividends than DSX are leveraged 100% to 300% more, hey if DSX borrowed it could doubled its Dividend and still be superior, but that is not the way it operates. It is a more conservative company, and as long as Panamax Rates stay at 50K or more you can count on that 9% safe dividend. With 50% chartered for 3 years or more, Diana is safe, while all the others could get shellacked with Spot Rates dropping
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