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    • Fri Mar 28th 10:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Diana Shipping: Prime Rebound Candidate
      I totally agree with this article on Diana. Diana has very low debt, the newest fleet in the industry, average vessel is under 5 years old with useful life of 25-30 years. With 19 ships, 6 Capesize ships chartered long term 3-6 years, all 13 Panamax Ships chartered 100% through Sept 2008, with 2 becoming available at the time of the grain harvest, where prices are higher. Diana discloses with great detail, who its customers, are, how much are they paying for the ship, and for how long, it updates the fleet deployment chart on the day the change takes place, unlike other shipping companies. It even provides a fleet positioning map to see where the ships are and where are they heading. With 9% Div Yield, and increasing earnings looks to be a horrible short.
      Also the last 6 Panamax Ship charters will increase earnings for 2008 by over 75% of 2007. Just look at the rates
      Ship 2007 Rate 2008 Term Charter
      Erato 30,500 80,300 12-15 months
      Dione 28,500 82,000 12-15 months
      Protefs 31,650 70,000 6 months
      Alcylon 22,582 34,500 5 years
      Calypso 26,750 55,000 12-15 years
      Nirefs Avg Spot(50K) 60,000 2 Years
      Diana Shipping beats the Treasury Yield by 600 Basis Points, with upside potential, and stability.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 09:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wells Fargo Seeking Fed Shotgun Marriage
      You know everything with 38 years of experience. You know nothing, no Mortgage payments are being made on 1 or 2% interest rates on WAMU Loans, Only Mortgage Brokers are dumb enough to do that and to believe on that statement. Not all loans are SUbprime, only 15% of all mortgages where subprime, like I said if they all default they can call be covered by WAMU's capital of $24 Billion, even when the recovery rate is over 50% of the initial loan value.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 02:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WaMu Alt-A Pool Revisited
      This Paper is not going down because the seller is never going to sell it.
      It is worth more that its market value. WAMU will make it with 16% of the FLow Short going long, makes it a better yield than U.S. Treasuries.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 02:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman Brothers is Looking Sick Again
      If you find out what's the real default rate on their assets, and stop talking about market value non sense, you will realize that this whole write downs are way overblown, and out of proportion.
      Start thinking about write-ups in the upcoming quarter because analyst are blowing it big in the down-side.
      If you have any gains from Shorting SUBPRIME, or for shorting Financials better cover them now, because they are getting ready to evaporate.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 01:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      I'm on Meredith Whitney's Side
      I'm not on her side, and I believe that She was blown it on the downside just like any other analyst in Wall Street, Mrs. Whitney please stop being a brat, and giving bad news so that your people can short Financial Stocks. The Actual Default Rates, of all outstanding loans, Bonds, and Mortgage Bonds, are way below their actual prices in the secondary market. Commercial Banks mentioned above (Regions, COmerica, Citibank,JPM MOrgan, and BOFA) have plenty of capital according to Bacel II, plus, with a decreasing loan market, who the heck needs to raise capital when the Banks will be earning 20% ROE after the charge ups are finished in Q1. Can you please start mentioning about profits once those write-downs become write-ups. The Value of the franchises of the Commercial Banks (I did not said Merrill, and Morgan Stanley) is intact, and are being way underpriced according to historical book values, and earnings potential. The matter of the fact is that most people don't understand the commercial banking business, and panic when there's rumors of bankruptcy in the air that are not true. Citigroup should had never cut its dividend and it didn't have to, with $113 Billion in Capital, $1 Billion in Dividend was not going to make a difference, that's the way Bob Rubin looked at it, before Ignorant people like DICK Parsons got worried and convinced the board to diminish the dividend. All this charge-offs are NONCASH temporary expenses, and do not affect the banks ability to generate Free Cash FLow from keeping the securities in their books, they earn very good interest on them, and that's the reason they are not selling them. Just ask them if they would rather have Treasuries in their books yielding below their cost of funds and they will tell you that they would rather own what they have.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 01:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wells Fargo Seeking Fed Shotgun Marriage
      This is such a Joke how Financials are being mispriced in this ridiculous market. WAMU won't go out of Business, only $240 Billion in Loans, $326 Total Assets and $24 Billion in Equity. The company was making almost $800 Million net per quarter before the charge offs, assuming they get $2.5 Billion in Net Cash Flow for the year, this will translate in profit before this fiscal is over. Only 2% off All outstanding loans go into Foreclosure, and WAMU has reserves for 1% of all of its loans. Now lets assume they are so horrible that 4% of all of its loans go into foreclosure, it will have to write off an aditional 7.4 Billion, of which they get at least 50% back after the foreclosure property is put into stronger hands. With $24 Billion in Capital the company can easy take a 7.4 Billion hit under Bacel II rules, and still be under the minimum capital requirements. After all this nonsense ends the company won't even need to take a $3 Billion Reserve, mainly because:
      Foreclosures are at peak right now. Resets of interest rates, will be at the same rate, as the introductory rates, for SUB-prime, because the FED has lowered 325 Basis Points.
      Foreclosed Properties going into auction get 70%-95% of the value of the initial loan.
      Strong Depositor Base for WAMU of $180 Billion, must likely to earn 2.5% or less before the year is over because rates are so low, therefore increasing the Net Interest Margin for WAMU by at least 200 Basis Points on Mortgage Portfolio, which is fixed, and increasing CASH FLOW by almost $4 Billion in excess of what is already making now. This is the time to Buy or sell naked puts, do to the huge premiums you can collect.
      I'm long WAMU with Jan2010 Naked Puts Strike $15, take the $7 Premium, with basically no downside. This isnt' the end of the world.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 25th 21:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Stocks to Buy When the Market Reverses
      UYG is the Double Long ETF
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 24th 09:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aircastle Looks Ready for a Bounce
      Bouncing Down you mean! Donkastic Call, Dividend reduced by 65%, this is what happens to highly leveraged companies, that bleed the free cash flow of the business enterprise. Once the Banks pull the plug on them, they have to finally service the debt. Another great move by Chairman Wes Edens, who has also taken down private equity FIG downhill. FLY is going down too, I don't think they can keep that dividend without earnings, if you're looking for high yield in this sector GLS seems like a safer play, but I cannot be confident on them also.
      No positions in FIG, AYR, FLY, or GLS. Have been long AYR but sold early January at $22.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 14th 11:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Stocks Trading Near Book Value
      Never compare a Bank's Book Value with a Broker's book value. Its a totally different animal. Broker's are leveraged up to the WAAAZZZZOOOO almost as twice as Commercial Banks. Therefore look for higher fluctuations in the. In the other hand, the Book Value of the banks, is less volatile, along with the assets it holds. Banks are less subject to leverages than brokers, therefore less risky, and more stable. The business model of banks is more stable too, you can't predict what dislocations in credit securities will do to Brokers, because they are more leveraged, and because they don't have a stable depositor base like the banks, who will always have an insight on the cost of funds, and don't have to worry about MARGIN CALLS.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 14th 09:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      DryShips Deserves More Love
      If its so great why is he issuing 6 million shares? Oh I guess the shorts own those shares, or might as well short those too. ALso 1.25 Billion in Debt with volatile shipping rates makes it very risky. Why spend $400 million company money in JUNK (Ocean RIG) this isn't a mutual fund where you overpay for diversification, if he had used that MULA for Debt payments the stock would be doubled at its current price.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 14th 09:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time for Greater Oversight of Mortgage Lenders? Duh!
      Why would BAC, WB, and C cut the dividends? It seems totally ridiculous. Best time to buy ever, Banks are fully capitalized, and can absorb huge loses that will not materialize. WB has 73 Billion of Capital a wooping 10% of Total Assets with consumer loans totalling just 223 Billion. Banks will make 2.25% on Deposits, because CD rates have gone down, and with 75 points dropping on Tuesday it will be more. No need for any of these banks to cut the dividend, specially when at year end the payout ratio will be less than 50%, and there won't be a need to keep capital, because the growth in assets will be slowing down. Banks on average keep 5-6% Capital/Total Assets depending on their risk weighted assets, and right now they have much more than that. You will never have an opportunity to buy these banks so cheap in your lifetime. If you're not confident in U.S. Banks buy ING, BCS, RBS, or LYG all of them yielding close to 7.5% without the SUBPRIME debacle, trading at 6 times earning and being hit harder than the U.S. for stupid Reasons.
      Can you imagine a 7.5% dividend or a 9% dividend for life with WB. Plus once the charges are finished and earnings are restored, the dividends will be increased year over year. Buy now put it on SafeBox, enjoy the rest of your life without having to worry about social Security.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 11th 10:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Star Bulk Carriers: Cruising Ahead on a Comparative Advantage
      Any idea of how much SBLK paid for the latest ships? The Panamax just received is chartered at only $18K per day when the BDI index is $69K per day. Would really like the see current financials to see the effect of debt on the newly purchased ships. So Far DSX is safer in the sector with Newships, lowest debt/assets among all companies in the sector, stable long-term charter rates and 8.5% dividend. For a play in the spot BDI index DRYSHIPS is the best play despite, questionale actions by Mr. Economou, of bleeding the company with other investments, and overcharging for services on ships performed by other companies owned by him but not consolidated in Dryships.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solarfun Power: Classic Short Sqeeze Setup
      Any signs of a shortsqueeze comming?
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 16:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dry Bulk Shipper Anomaly in Spot Pricing Creates Buy Opportunity
      DRYSHIPS hit $66 today. Buy it when it stops going down.
      Panamax SPOT $69K, Capesize $137K, today, if they stand for the next 15 days, DRYS will beat estimates for the next quarter. It should be a hell of a Run into the next earnings call. Just Hope George Economou don't do foolish things with the company's money, and bleeds the company's future like buying junkie assets at exhorbitant prices like OCEANRIG.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 16:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WaMu: WSJ Backs Up My Sell Recommendation
      Traded at $10 today 50% below Book Value. It is not going to Zero, too cheap, this is not a THORNBURGH, and with the Huge Premiums on PUTS i will be writing naked Puts against this name, Jan 09 and LEAPS.
      STrike $15, collect fees and income. It can't go down to 0 with $24 Billion in Capital, even if it takes $14 Billion (4.5% of assets) in Write Offs still has over $10 Billion in Capital, just slightly above Book Value where it traded today. When it reached $10 today the Bears were running for cover. If it hits $10 again BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!!!! Huge PAYOFF Its time to get on Bullish with these FINANCIALS.
      View article »
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