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AJ, Washington DC
25 Comments
Eaton: Unappreciated New-Age Stock - Barron's [view article]
In that case, wouldn't GE be a great buy? They are heavily invested in Water technology, Environmentally friendly energy (Wind Turbines), traditional energy - Gas turbines and nuclear reactors, nanotechnology etc. Why are they being beaten down in spite of their stellar dividends and long term great positioning? Jun 02 12:10 PMNuclear Power Is in Demand [view article]
thanks for the great overview... who will be supplying the fuel for the new reactors as they come online, and are there different grades for different types of reactors? Since GE builds the plants in many countries, do they typically also have long term contracts for maintenance etc? As India and China build new reactors, it would be interesting to know where they will be getting their fuel as well. May 15 11:30 AMBlood in the Streets: Buy and Hold GE, For Now [view article]
As long as there are stocks that respond to trading momentum with big moves, resulting in instant gains (or loss, for that matter), GE will continue to be ignored by the market. The intrinsic value of its businesses, especially in energy and infrastructure is undervalued, given that most part of the worlds needs new or replacement infrastructure to keep up with their growth. No one has really been paying attention to their R&D, which has been making large investments in nanotechnology. GE's financial divisions may seem to be the downside, but it gives them access to cheap money since they are able to borrow at bank rates across the globe, wherever the are able to do business - this in turn allows them to provide their customers with attractive financing over a longer term. Its their domestic exposure to sub-prime and other instruments that puts them at a disadvantage, but its to the order of 2-3 billion, from their current Quarterly statement. They'll soon work through that... I agree that their stock doesnt seem to be doing anything, but in a sea of volatility, a small isle of relative calm is a welcome relief. GE has been punished enough for Mr. Immelts "lack of guidance", but he has learnt what it means to be the voice of GE in no uncertain terms. I don't think he will make THAT mistake again. All that said, this is a stock to keep accumulating - If you have a 10-20 year time frame, its the stock buy and forget, and when the dividends come in, reinvest in more shares. As one of the previous commentator said, its a stock that your grandchildren will be glad that you bought.cheers,
Go Long and be Prosper! Apr 29 07:09 AM
Microsoft Should Listen to Its Heart (and ignore the bean counters) [view article]
hmmm. sage advice. it presupposes, of course, that MSFT has a heart. :) Apr 28 08:53 AMWhat It Would Take To Fix Microsoft For Me [view article]
Amen. Apr 25 02:00 PMRBC Expects Strong Beat from Apple [view article]
nope, mass stupidity sellathon seems to be happening BEFORE earnings. And based on what??? Wu's downgrade to Neutral isnt so bad... his comments were generally positive. Why these massive fluctuations on no news? Is everyone expecting AAPL to do a GE and spring a surprise miss? Apr 22 12:42 PMThe Treasury, Fed and Bankers Are Setting the Bull Traps [view article]
I would venture to opine that the market is in fact, an INSANE place with NO rules. Speculation, rumor and unsubstantiated opinions by "talking head" analysts rule. Other Analysts provide a constant stream of drivel for the blogger mill. I am an eternal optimist, and believe in real market forces, the power of supply and demand economics and above all the danger of inflation. When we talk of 8 percent growth in India and 12 percent in China, we don't seem to consider the fact that these economies have 7-8 percent ADMITTED inflation. Where's the growth? Besides, they have hardly begun building the infrastructure to be able to sustain the growth - I follow the Asian media closely for signs of large commitments to roads, bridges, dams, water supply, power generation, telecommunication (for example, the recent Indian budget announcement), and find that other than a few high profile facilities for big urban centers, there isn't much new expenditure on infrastructure. The prices of oil and food are beginning to cripple their economies, and in India, I would expect some major changes to the ruling coalition in the next elections on the basis of food scarcity politics etc. China has an iron grip on everything, especially the currency - this is scary, since we will never know what any investment in China is really worth. As for the Federal Bank here, and the Central Bank in Europe, the less said the better. Thank you for the insightful article. Apr 21 09:48 AMAnalyzing Analysts on GE, GOOG, C Earnings [view article]
Thank you for the article. My sentiments exactly. I was amazed that the analysts estimates on GE had not changed in months. granted, Mr. Immelt reiterated his guidance in mid-March that GE was on track, but isn't that just what the analysts are paid to investigate, analyze and report on? If we are just going to take the company's guidance as gospel, then what's the need for all these upgrades, downgrades and estimates? I found the downgrades on GE particularly galling... where were these people all quarter? as for the forward PE... it's worthless, since most are calculated for a 5 year projection, not 12 or 24 months. Price, PE, Cash flow, Current ratio and cash reserves are the criteria I depend on, and I don't need an analyst to tell me what they mean. Apr 21 09:05 AMWas Peter Lynch Wrong? Crocs and Other Trendy Companies [view article]
Not sure what to make of this company. They don't seem to have any other product. Granted, the material they use is a patented closed cell plastic, but for the customer, there is no appreciable difference between a Crocs product and a clone/rip-off etc made from a brightly colored generic plastic - other than the price, of course. The stories about getting caught in escalators etc scared a lot of people, especially coming in on the heels (pun intended) of last years toy recalls. Still, we've just come out of a long winter... who buys these shoes in winter? they are a summer product. maybe they will have better sales in the next quarter as the weather grows warmer. I would not look to overseas and tropical markets for salvation, the product is too easy to copy (probably by the very firm that makes them for CROCS, using the same molds but different plastics. Apr 17 11:36 AMGE Earnings: Industrial Bellwethers Are Now Getting Hit [view article]
Missed estimates??? Aren't analysts supposed to review and revise estimates based on the current market environment? It appears that they are still living in a pipe dream. More power to GE - they will be able to buyback their shares 12% cheaper today. I can see why Immelt chose not to pre-warn. Why bother? Apr 11 02:52 PMIs General Electric Overvalued? [view article]
From the fundamentals, and future potential in their infrastructure (think power plants and nuclear reactors), aircraft engines, wind turbines and medical equipment sales, especially in the "strong currency" parts of the world, my thinking is that GE is undervalued. However, I do have a concern that Financials make up 40-45% of income for GE, as much as Infrastructure. NBC is sure to do well covering the Beijing Olympics this year in addition to their regular broadcasting ad revenue. I like the 3% dividend, too. To top it all, they have Siemens AG reeling on the ropes, unable to compete with GE's pricing. Apr 08 02:52 PMApple's iPhone Shortage Is Probably Just That [view article]
Isn't Toni Sacconagghi the analyst that started the Quest for the "missing iPhone" in the first place? I hope he has tracked them all down, all 10 million... I am an anxious shareholder, and appreciate his diligence in figuring out where all the bits and pieces that make up the iPhone come from, where they are going, and who is buying the iPhones. I know there are a lots of folks in India and China who are waiting for the chance to buy a 3G iPhone with no hacking required, and who dont mind the price since they have beaucoup $$$ of discretionary income these days.... Apr 08 02:05 PMExpecting Apple to Continue Its Upside Surprises [view article]
I thought iPod sales were flattening out and iPhone revenues were being deferred over 2 years? Growth must be coming from other sales - macs, music and movies??? Apr 08 01:57 PMApple Slowdown, Macro Weakness - Morgan Keegan [view article]
McCourt's taking the broader market view, and although I am an Apple long, I welcome the stock taking a breather and dropping a few points - Apple is widely expected to meet or exceed street expectations this quarter, so there's a lot of upside to look forward to. I assume McCourt is looking ahead at the 3rd and 4th quarters when the macro conditions will really be felt. Apple will probably fill their product channel with all sort of irresistible (to folks with strong currencies, that is) goodies, and make up for weak lower markets. State and Muncipal budgets may be squeezed, and they may go for the cheaper computers, but the college market is likely to hold up well. Hoping that AAPL will hold in the $150-175 range for the next few months, until the macro-economic situation improves. Apr 08 01:49 PMApple Facing Serious Downside Risk - Morgan Keegan [view article]
PS. I am an Apple Perma-Long, and have held their shares through good times and bad for the better part of a decade. Apr 08 10:18 AM