AJ, Washington DC

Analyzing Analysts on GE, GOOG, C Earnings

Thank you for the article. My sentiments exactly. I was amazed that the analysts estimates on GE had not changed in months. granted, Mr. Immelt reiterated his guidance in mid-March that GE was on track, but isn't that just what the analysts are paid to investigate, analyze and report on? If we are just going to take the company's guidance as gospel, then what's the need for all these upgrades, downgrades and estimates? I found the downgrades on GE particularly galling... where were these people all quarter? as for the forward PE... it's worthless, since most are calculated for a 5 year projection, not 12 or 24 months. Price, PE, Cash flow, Current ratio and cash reserves are the criteria I depend on, and I don't need an analyst to tell me what they mean.

The Coming Crash of 2008: A Result of Overleveraging

You're right about the derivatives dwarfing the 'real' markets and we all know the Hedge Funds, Commercial and Investment banks are highly leveraged to the point that an 'investor run' can bring them down like a house of cards.

That said, are you just going to make the movie about the Crash of 2008, or are you going to suggest any way to get out from under the Derivative Mountain? If the markets do crash, you wont have the funds to make and distribute your documentary film, and I certainly wont be able to afford to pay to see it :)

What the Fed is doing is shoring up th supports, but unless there is concerted action from other Central banks, notably ECB, China, and Japan and UK, there wont be any significant progress. In fact, once the dominoes start falling, people will see that the European economies are just as fragile and leveraged. Italy and UK's cracks are already showing, Germany and France are next.

What really worries me is the high proportion of LEVEL 3 assets the banks are holding. They have no idea what these securities are worth, and I have a feeling we are about to find out the hard way.