Poul Andreasen

Dollar/Krone Relationship A Sign Of Peak Oil?

cal48koho:"Oil will continue to go up until demand drops. No sign that $130 will do much. Maybe at $230 or $330."

My view exactly. As production is evidently not going to increase much, demand destruction needs to fix the price. Bubble thinking is wishful and contrary to facts on the ground. Production is down almost everywhere (look mazamascience.com/OilE.../ for data).

My own theoretical limit to future gasoline prices is 12.000 USD a gallon, as a gallon does the equivalent of approx. 700 hours of manual labor. Danish wages btw. You might get a slave cheaper elsewhere. But you need to work him locally. So 4 USD for 4 months labor is damned cheap alsmost everywhere in the "developed" world.

What Can Possibly Explain the Price of Oil?

(quote)This is what I don’t understand, if you are a dyed in the wool “peak oil” believer, why invest in a dying industry? ... Or ... if you were to go back in time, would you try to corner the whale oil market? or invest in Texas oil fields?(unquote)

Reneables will not substitute currently 1 cubic mile of yearly oil consumption. While reneables are being developed and implemented, the price of oil will still rise skyhigh.

So it still makes perfect sense to invest in oil even if you are a peak oil believer.

Stuart Staniford: Two Mysteries of Oil Supply Data

This is an interesting explanation. It could also explain the recent production increase, as Bush was on his knees. We should then expect some further testing by oil exporters how much they can withhold production withput ofsetting the World economy. Downside: They also fuel conservation and alternatives (pun intended).

My Crude Oil Futures Strategy

Readers should follow the "peak oil" link in the article before they criticise. It is a very well written, short, yet comprehensive introduction to the subject.

We may all debate whether peak oil is here or not. But we´d better get facts and concepts straight before we move on. There is so much more than investments at stake here ...