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CahaTrader

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  • VIX - Options Volatility And Market Sonar, Tuesday Recap: Bonds Catch A Bid [View article]
    My apologies, I overheard Russell Rhoads mention them today. I'm not sure which day he was referring to, but assumed today.
    Mar 13 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility And Market Sonar, Tuesday Recap: Bonds Catch A Bid [View article]
    Any insights or comments on the buyer of 30,000 Mar 55 VIX calls?
    Mar 12 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome To The Top Of The Market, Again [View article]
    Every year we get another one of these guys calling for another 08. Drooling over the opportunity to have a second chance at buying at the bottom, because most bears (despite telling you they know a bottoms coming) can never tell you when a bottom is here. Because they miss it.

    John Hussman and the like of all other bears have missed out on a 100%+ rally in stocks. Ouch. And now this guy is telling you markets "doubtless[ly]" should have corrected like "he said so", just that the whole "Fed" is working against him. Darn, predicting a 50% drop like 08, but just couldn't have even enough foresight to see fed intervention coming in. Really?

    I have no doubt we are going to have corrections and major moves in either direction, but this isn't 2008 people. Just like how this isn't Y2K either. Stop being shell-shocked and listening to guys who try to time the market with "Rats jumping ship" metrics and "Greedometers". You'd be better investing your time and money into other retail junk like "Mötley Fool".
    Feb 27 05:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility And Market Sonar: Wednesday Recap [View article]
    "This single trade made up almost 10% of the total call volume for the VIX today, but it was actually sold. At 2:48, a block of 34.5K March 15 calls went off for .95 when the spread was trading 1.00 x 1.05, so clearly, a sold transaction. This is confirmed by net premium, showing calls were overall sold on the day to the tune of 3.6M. It appears one trader believes this volatility will be short lived."

    SPX down -1.25% =/= $VIX +19%. This particular trader most likely sold his calls because he knows a SPX drop of -1% only demands an average increase of ~+7% for $VIX.

    If the indexes open flat tomorrow, or slightly up, $VIX might revert 6-12%.
    Feb 20 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Getting Close To Consensus Price Target [View article]
    Who cares what the banks say. They all got it wrong last year anyways. They all had their estimates beaten well-before year end and 2012 did beyond everyone's "expectations".
    Feb 16 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Chairman Bernanke... [View article]
    Rich, wake up and smell the coffee. You're bearish when the market goes up and bullish as its crashing. You're not making any money.
    Feb 16 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Warns Of Coming Correction [View article]
    China just soared approx. 500 points after going sub 2000 (25% return). It's also grinded another +100 points throughout January. I'm a bit confused how this ratio shows China's market declining or underperforming SPY through January. Looking at the markets themselves, it looks like performance is on par.

    But I do agree, it wouldn't be a surprise seeing China pullback after a 25% run. But I'm just confused on how your ratio derives the under-performance. Could you clarify?
    Feb 6 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
    Exactly right. Macro, he should be all-in without a doubt. What a bold call it is calling for a 40% correction (why not 41? 42? 48?). If this author thinks a 40% correction is about to take place, then he better be balls deep in with his call because knowledge like that is once-in-a-life-time.

    Prior to the start of the year, I thought the world was not going to end and I went bullish. Unlike You Nicholas, I went 100% and then added 110% leverage. Put your money where your mouth is, don't mislead the gullible here on SA to do so (because they will, believe me).

    This article is complete "sensationalism".
    Jan 31 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
    Nicholas,

    What has been your performance track record for the past 4 years? I know a fellow on SA here who manages 9 figures, returned 45% last year, and he doesn't think a 40% correction is going to happen. In fact he thinks quite the opposite.

    I think every SA author should have their past performance records posted publically for all to see. People like "John Hussman" and the type come on SA and other venues spouting another bear-market when their returns are abysmal. John Hussman, for all his conviction in a huge downturn, has returned no more than 10% y/y for the last four years. In fact, Hussman is flat on his account relative to the SPX performing 100%+ since 09.

    So, Nicholas, your returns please? I'm up as high as 67% for "just" the month of January and I don't see a 40% correction coming.
    Jan 31 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transports Strength Over? [View article]
    Michael, when do you have a correction happening on your timeline? Are we days, weeks, or months away? Already started?
    Jan 31 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Cruisin' For A Bruisin' [View article]
    Why does everyone keep saying the markets are overbought when NYMO is at -5? Overbought requires NYMO to be at a level of +80. In fact, for the past couple weeks NYMO has moved from +55 down to -5 while the SPX consolidated around 1500.

    Overbought? Looks neutral to me. I don't disagree with a correction, but I know that everyone is expecting a correction and the market never corrects when everyone expects it to. Case in point, last year around the same time everyone was crying for a pull back. We rallied on for 4 months before a pullback came in May. This year and last year look relatively similar.
    Jan 31 05:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
    Everyone is expecting a pullback.
    Jan 31 12:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Wednesday Recap [View article]
    Crazy collapse in $VIX. Still expensive! Short of a decade right here.

    Up 52% YTD in 3 weeks.
    Jan 18 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Wednesday Recap [View article]
    10-day HV @ 5.54. This implies $VIX at 7-8%. Thoughts? I'm expecting a ramp in volatility in march, since that's where the risk is being priced right now. But conceivably expecting more collapse in $VIX. Too expensive.
    Jan 17 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relationship Between Open Interest In VIX Futures And The S&P 500 [View article]
    You really should have taken time out to learn about VIX vehicles before doing that. It does exactly what it supposed to do. You were just on the wrong side of the market.
    Jan 16 04:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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