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Hiro Hara

Hiro Hara
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  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    I hope you are not taking credit for the latest drop of AAPL's latest drop. It's only technical, after reaching technical high of $133 or so, it's time to correct. Besides, AAPL has not performed well lately before or after the unveiling of products. There are serious long term catalyst for upside or at least for value, but it will be effective in 18 month or so in my opinion.
    Mar 11, 2015. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This's New Manhattan Store? [View article]
    "It seems that perhaps Jeff Bezos saw Apple's success as a function of its retail presence, and thought that to emulate it,, too, needed stores? That would be the kind of psychological rationalization that someone could easily fall into, instead of recognizing the Fire Phone blunder."

    Thank you exactly. Bezos has been "investing" heavily lately for growth, but he has not been a good "investor" for investment sake. CNBC has cited his "hobby" and "investments" and "the emperor without clothes". May be finally it is time that market realizes that he needs to focus on profit rather than toying with his hobbies like video content, phones, and drones.
    Oct 23, 2014. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Amazon Before The Institutions Do [View article]
    Obviously, your bet was correct. Happy investing!

    I want to see the evidence that to what extent it was due to the institutional investors selling their position tonight. It is good for them to sell off after knowing they made a loss for the year's tax loss, not before. For that matter, they will sell further, but then they will buy back for the hopes that the price may go up next year. Kind of interesting bet one might be trapped into.
    Oct 23, 2014. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Undervalued? [View article]
    Fundamental strength over others that APPL has developed and built over the years, while competitors (including MSFT, IBM, INTC, GOOG, SONY,etc.) were all complacent in their niche is based on the following. It is the best company technologically positioned to do the best in people's computing activities. When Steven Jobs saw the future of computing in peoples' life, and decided to be the player in such universe, APPL's DNA is born, and it will be staying for quite awhile. People didn't think about music was computing. iPhone is not the end of people's computing needs. The reason that APPL is best positioned is as follows:

    1) Proprietary processor: APPL manufacture the fastest microprocessor that uses the least energy. Also, it has the iTouch technology for everyone. Nobody else can come up with the security chip of their own.
    2) Software: MSFT cashed in on OS, but APPL made its OS free, as GOOG is doing with Android for others. This OS software is critically integrated to the chip design.
    3) Integration: APPL is the only company who has OS, the chip, and the hardwares. It is the only company that can integrate safety into hardware and software.
    4) Ecosystem: The term so called ecosystem is often used to describe the integration between software developer and apps, but the ecosystem goes beyond customer base, and apps. The ecological relationship between software developer, user and the OS software design, is by far the strongest, because of the Integration.

    Not even the mighty GOOG nor the has been MSFT combined can imagine the microchip design and production. No Japanese, nor Korean company has two of the three.

    So, Ryan, as you see the growth in the hardware term, I see vast area of expansion in cashing in opportunity in cloud computing and personal computing. People may hate to hide their envy in APPL's success, but for me as an APPL customer since the first Mac, and have seen with the company through the thick and thin, (I almost start to consider what the alternative for me at around time when Steven Jobs re-took over the company) The turnaround was remarkable. So, I am not hesitant to say APPL has incredible growth opportunity in future waiting ahead of it, and Tim Cook and the team seems to know very well where they are heading. There is no reason for them to announce where they are headed, until it is successful.
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Undervalued? [View article]
    "Apple/IBM partnership, I can't help but think that the main purpose of the alliance was to expand the iPad's addressable market."

    Apple has been downplaying their revenue and profitability in Media sales, but this is going to be the source of dividend for long time to come.

    I think most of the people are missing the growth potential in Apple Pay and cloud computing space. Apple is especially quiet when they are weaving the strategy net for the future 10 years, unlike AMZN who bleed the announcement diarrhea every couple weeks, APPL has been quiet until they integrated the iPod and iTune and iTune on Windows, and then slowly telling the market to switch to Mac. The Apple Pay and IBM partnership is critical for the future credit card transaction is going to morph into, a very large cash cow. AMZN talks so much about AWS and cloud computing, but at the end of the day, it will become the Napstar vs. iTune.

    Apple is not saying anything about the gaming terminals, but the new OS and chips are making the phone and tablet into formidable game machine. XBOX, Playstation, and Wii will be the thing of the past. I wouldn't be surprised that a version of iPod or similar configuration may become the fastest game terminals.
    Oct 15, 2014. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Time To Impress [View article]
    I have a neighbor who owns TSLA Model S I think. I've seen their car towed on Tesla trailer twice (to or from) her house. I haven't seen the car since. I have seen one Tesla disabled on the road. I don't know if it was theirs... For myself, I can't have any automobile without AWD because of the steep driveway. So the single motor RWD was a turn down when I saw it in their store.
    Tesla has a steep competition in the sports car market, because customer demands not only performance, but also soup to nuts luxury. Running out of battery life is a serious flaw for batterie powered automobile.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Got Into Yet Another Fight, This Time With Greenpeace [View article]
    TSLA is doing at least something that is good for the environment and planet. AMZN, as this article says is as bad as brick and mortar smokestack. That may be why it is trying B&M store. Another major mistake in losing cash fast.
    Oct 12, 2014. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Amazon Before The Institutions Do [View article]
    Thank you for an interesting perspective. As you note, institutions may be trying to dump the underperforming AMZN for now and takes a tax loss even while it is still believing that it can sell the shares at good profit after the price drop ends to good buying opportunity range, and wait to see if it has any sign of profit in any ventures that they went into in the last 2 years.
    Every good analysis pushing for AMZN seems to fail mentioning that it is going to post very large loss, and it had borrowed $2B debt financing to cover cash flow shortage. When the interest rate goes up this coming year, the cash flow management is going to be much tougher for AMZN. When it has to play defensive, the share value shrink very fast.
    Oct 12, 2014. 05:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    I usually agree with you on the same side of the trade. But not this one. I think you must be the camp who never had Apple phones. I am a Apple customer since the original Macintosh, and I haven't yet to depart from being the camp. I was the component guy in terms of High Fidelity audio in the 70's, and during the PC era, I thought combining components made sense, except that DOS and Windows did nothing to integrate printer or any other peripheral at that time. Apple worked. No need to re-boot and re-boot. Nowadays they call it ecosystem, and it seem to give Google Android as having equivalent ecosystem. However, it is much more than that. I don't know how Apple made iTune as their gold mine that well without planning, but the advantage they have is "integration". Other platform is still a component and hodgepodge. When OS company, app developers, and the hardware companies are having their own strategy, Apple will continue to have the advantage in integration. The Apple Pay is another distinctive advantage that Apple devices are going to have. Google is trying into manufacturing, then where does the Samsung going to end up. Samsung has the least moat in the future generation competition. This is the legacy that Microsoft has left in the PC industry. Apple is "the only" integrated device manufacturer, and people likes what Apple products let them do. Not like what Samsung can do. You are totally missing the strength of Apple.
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Got Into Yet Another Fight, This Time With Greenpeace [View article]
    Yes, Despite the un-green record, surprisingly, AMZN's logistics is not automated, not too efficient, and they are labor intensive with tens of thousands of shipping clerk. Tax advantages were their "cheat" that they won't be able to take advantage of in many states. Where is the innovative, and disruptive advantage for profit and growth other than "cheat"? The cost advantage is coming from the would be profit to investors, should there be not Bezos's empire building strategy. That's a cheat that does not last.
    Oct 6, 2014. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Got Into Yet Another Fight, This Time With Greenpeace [View article]
    Amazon has done nothing to recycle the packaging materials that uses so lavishly. The more online sales increases, the more unnecessary packaging material is disposed at consumer. Cardboard boxes, popcorn, and air bag cushion. Nothing is said on recycled.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Loss Leader Policy [View article]
    Not only the security and privacy, but also major reason that we won't see the AMZN drone in our lifetime is, it costs too much. Too much to deploy, and too much to operate. AMZN doesn't have money to deploy to begin with, then don't have money to operate it. It costs at least one operator for one round-trip delivery, full time. It can carry only very lightweight items, so no grocery can be delivered. AMZN customers are too cheap to pay extra for drone delivery. Thus no drone.
    Oct 1, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Fire Phone And Kindle Voyage Developments [View article]
    Yes, that's because no other thing Amazon offers as its competitive edge. Lower Price. Cheap, Free, that sells. No profit no problem, until it catches up with them as losses. The business model is disruptive for sure. It's disruptive to themselves.
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Loss Leader Policy [View article]

    It's not the policy, I think. It's the lack of discipline, in my opinion. I think the company is run pretty hands free, rather than Bezos micro-managing. I imagine he is better business person than that. Just he is getting really losing focus. If the company is run with retail industry's discipline, one should be able to tell which makes the money and which is the lost leader. I think he is dreaming that the downloads, and streaming content is the bigger pie, but then they realize that people don't download that much and the price is peanuts as compared to the tablet and phones. eBooks too, unless you buy "hard-cover" eBook that Amazon is so keen on not selling, it's cheap. and the margin on those is small as well. I imagine, employees, executives are so much infected by Bezos' "policy" that says "Be good for customers at any cost." "Sell cheap, you will gain sale." something like that without clear cut strategy to make money. May be the CFO was the cornerstone of the discipline, but he is gone, and that is what it is.
    I don't think they have professional managers who have successful competitive retail expertise.
    Sep 22, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Does Something Right [View article]
    When you say something good on AMZN, the stock goes down. When you say something bad, 2 out of 3 it goes up. Weird.
    Sep 22, 2014. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment