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Tue Apr 8th 11:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
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Missed Steel Rally? Massey is Purest Play on Metallurgical Coal

Met coal prices have been reset at the high end of the expected range: over $300 per ton. MEE has the highest percentage of metalurgical coal in its production of any of the US majors that I am aware of. But it is only 25%, which does not make it a "pure play". Further, MEE has numerous contracts in place to provide coal at the old prices. I agree that MEE will benefit from the increase in met coal prices. But that benefit will seep gradually onto the income statement over the next three years; there will not be a significant, immediate step up as would be the case if all its production were met coal and if it sold strictly at spot prices.
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Tue Feb 26th 13:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
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Ambac: More Smoke and Mirrors?

What do you want your readers to think from your rather abrupt ending? "A rights offering with a mere backstop?" That backstop is all important as it guarantees the full $2.5 million is subscribed. It appears to be enough new equity to preserve the all important AAA rating... for now. Which means premiums on the existing book will continue to be paid which means the company stays around. If we must use the word, it is "merely" the difference between life and death.

The issue now is what is the future for the equity? How do you value a no growth company that is effectively in workout mode? You give it a big discount to its net asset value. And no one really knows what NAV is until the dust on the CDO's settle. But here is a hint: the ABX index which tracks the value of CDO's currently prices them at $0.64 on the dollar. For triple A rated paper. Shave 36% off the value of their roughly $160 billion of CDO's and the shareholder's equity is gone.
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