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  • California Housing Recovery? Not So Fast [View article]
    Hi Judy,

    According to the CA Association of Realtors, home sales are up 80+% over last year, but prices are down 40+%:

    sacramento.bizjournals...

    The article also mentions that the average marketing time has dropped under 45 days, from 61, and inventory is down to a 6.9 month supply.

    That's statewide, apparently, but it bodes well for reaching the vaunted 'housing bottom.' Distressed sales are still dominating the market, with over 45% either sales out of foreclosure or short sales.

    As I posted months ago, these are the kinds of statistcs that suggest the end of the crash is near in CA. What's happened now, in my opinion, is that the contagion has spread to other areas that heretofore hadn't experienced a significant bubble, like TX, WA, and most of the Southeast (save FL).

    If CA stabilizes and rates remain low next year (as the Fed implied), the housing market may begin to recover in the 3rd quarter of 2009.

    I'm publishing that as my uneducated prediction.

    ATB,

    Bill
    Dec 23 18:59 pm |Rating: 0 0
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