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billddrummer

billddrummer
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  • J. C. Penney Bonds: Penny Wise Or Pound Foolish? [View article]
    Agree. The Gulf disaster mentioned by Zeus2012 looks more and more like a 'Black Swan' event, which, to the company's credit, spurred myriad improvements in well monitoring, engineering upgrades, and a renewed emphasis on safer offshore oil production.

    I have not followed BP in depth, but it seems to me that the likelihood of a spill on the magnitude of the prior one is lower than ever, not only for BP, but for other companies with significant offshore drilling interests.

    It is reasonable to think that competitors adopted some of the same upgrades for their production facilities.

    Thanks again for the commentary!
    Oct 6 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J. C. Penney Bonds: Penny Wise Or Pound Foolish? [View article]
    I disagree with your analysis.

    The Z score was developed to predict bankruptcy probability based on the operating metrics of small manufacturing companies that have raw materials, WIP, and finished goods inventory.

    These companies also sell on credit and have significant accounts receivable and payable balances in relationship to the rest of their balance sheets.

    The characteristics of manufacturing entities are vastly different from those of a broad line retailer that recognizes the preponderance of its sales upon product delivery, has no raw materials or WIP inventory, and has a sales cycle materially shorter than that of a manufacturing firm.

    The Z score is helpful to predict bankruptcy likelihood for manufacturers. In my opinion, it is not a viable bankruptcy predictor for non-manufacturing firms.

    Disclosure: Commercial loan underwriter and credit analyst for a variety of financial institutions spanning a 25+ year career, reviewing the financial and operating metrics of virtually all types of companies ranging from small (<$1 million revenue) to large (>$25 billion revenue) firms.
    Oct 6 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: Is The Party Over? [View article]
    They said the same thing about AMZN.

    It seems to be defying gravity.

    Still.

    And how many times a day do you use GOOG?

    That will tell you how much upside the stock has, not necessarily today or tomorrow, but 5 years from now.

    Will become long GOOG shortly.
    Oct 3 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing The Income Inequality Trade [View article]
    Trading on a trend which has little chance of reversing?

    Brilliant!
    Oct 3 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator [View article]
    Nice article.

    You have gained a new follower.

    Thanks.
    Sep 27 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    Doubtful--there's no compelling reason to block the deal from either side of the border.

    And BBRP isn't a major player in any of its markets.

    Just a lot of hot air chasing a minor telecom deal.
    Sep 23 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Best Buy [View article]
    Three points to consider about the identified sales:

    1. Schulze sold his stock as he announced to 'diversify his portfolio and for long term planning purposes.' http://seekingalpha.co...

    2. Hubert Joly sold his shares in part to pay for a divorce.
    http://aol.it/1aZOYQ0

    3. Messrs. Gould, Nelson, and Lenzmeier sold shares through stock options exercised after their expiration.

    http://1.usa.gov/1aZOYQ2

    (html document created by the SEC for Mr. Lenzmeier's holdings)

    An alarmist headline boosts your readership, but doesn't help your credibility.

    Disclosure: Long BBY.
    Sep 23 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    Fairfax perhaps--reduce the amount of debt needed to put the deal together.
    Sep 23 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    Must agree--Great Call!!!!
    Sep 23 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    No position.

    I just like watching train wrecks.
    Sep 23 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sells 9M new iPhones in 3 days [View news story]
    What on earth are you talking about?
    Sep 23 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    I think the news will be worse than their 'pre-announcement' projection.

    That will slam the door on anyone contemplating bidding more than $9/share.
    Sep 23 02:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    Glad you like your Z10.

    Don't know anything about it since nobody I know has one, tried one, uses one or wants one.
    Sep 23 02:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sells 9M new iPhones in 3 days [View news story]
    One of my best friends uses a flip phone because she says 'it's stupid to pay for a smartphone.'

    Call me stupid. I've been called worse.
    Sep 23 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    A misguided belief in the system.

    No good deed goes unpunished.
    Sep 23 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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