phillips49

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

Capgain

Well said and not all overstated. It took $4.00 gas for people to start asking questions.We can find all kinds of reasons to do nothing, but if we don't take care of our business, we'll be out of business. At the end of the day, it really is everyman for himself and no one out there will really care whether we sit in the warm light or the cold dark. Many would just as soon see us fall (after they have all of our money). It has not dawned on a lot of people, that a free nation cannot remain a world power, if it depends on the good will of theocracies, monarchies, and socialists for it's energy. Affordable energy made the USA great and gave us the ability to project our economic and military power anywhere in the world. We will need to use all the resources available to us. A comprehensive national energy plan is a must so that we don't make the mistake of using food for fuel again. I hope the Pickens Plan starts that discussion.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Someone really ought to speak to T.Boone Pickens about diverification. I mean really his hedge fund is very unbalanced. I mean he's only turned a $1 in $28 in last 7 years. He really should have stuck with the S&P and made 3.5% like smart money does!

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

pearl2k,

I doubt that military consumption of fuel in support of IRAQ will make much of a difference in global supply/demand.

On a different note. The problems in this region go back 1000's of years. In my opinion, when America leaves, (if we can ever make a gracefull exit) the entire region will once again de-stablize into fighting factions and civil war. History is on the side of my opinion in that regard. Any de-stabilization in this region will push the price of oil out of sight. Dissidents believe in reign or ruin. This is demonstarated on a smaller scale in Nigeria and it's problems with rebels. The US gets about 10% of it's imported oil from Nigeria.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

WOW!!! Good article!!! It is almost like talking to myself, (not that I'm that smart) except written much better. To me investing 101 says invest in companies that:
1. Have product that is demand
2. Have high long term growth potential
3. Have high profit potential
4. Have the ability to pass along cost of business increases
5. Have great cash flow
6. Have a moat such as high cost of entry into the business segment

For the last several years, natural resources and energy have met these criteria because a growing world NEEDS these things.

Coal needs to be added to the list of investment considerations along with the miners, mining equipment, infrastructure and ag. It's all good!!!

Some say these companies are high risk because of the link to commodities. Right now though Financials, Consumer and Tech are all looking higher risk to me. I add Tech because it is consumer driven and the consumer is at risk.

Commodities: Bubble or Not?

OPEC is working very hard to produce only what is necessary to meet demand. They can keep oil prices at current levels for the foreseeable future. Some nations, including the USA have already reached peak oil production and output is in decline.
The dot com bubble was based on speculation over assets and demand that existed only in the minds of the participants. The real estate bubble was based on demand for tangable but optional assets, that are worth only what someone else was willing to pay for them.
Natural resources are very real needs, the demand is very real, and the supply is limited and controlled. It is not in the suppliers best interest to flood the market with product.
There may be some froth due to speculation, but bubble, I think not.
I like investments with solid demand for products that people NEED, where there is limited supply that provides some pricing power, with limited competition and high prospects for continued growth. For me, oil, natural gas, oil field services, pipelines and distribution, metals, mining, mining equipment, seed, fertilzer, weed and pest control all satisfy these criteria and in my opinion are the investments to be in for the long haul because a growing world needs these things.

Is the Commodity Bull Market Over?

I'm interested in investing in businesses that have a solid requirement for their products, the ability to pass on increased costs, and high prospects for growth.
For me, the oil and natural gas companies, the mining companies, the infrastructure companies, the agriculture companies, and the businesses that support these kinds of companies satisfy these requirements.

Continued growth in demand for these resources in undeniable... and they are not making any more of the stuff.

This far more than can be said for financials or many of the other sectors for that matter. Traders will come and traders will go, but the requirement for basic materials and services remains the same. From a price earnings standpoint they are still reasonably priced, so I fail to see a tech type of bubble in these assetts. I'm long.