caramba

Ambac: More Smoke and Mirrors?

1st there is a liquidity problem. SIV where a disaster in the making. financed by short term paper.
Then ML writedown, among others was forced by "mark to market rules" that didn't existed in the past. The ABX index has no real underlying assets. I do not deny the excess and bad paper, I just want to mention that due to the ABX index and other new rules, this crisis has been made worst. Most paper wote down are still paying their coupon. the real loss are when you have to sell. The worst positiioned are the SIV holders that don't have the capital to carry the paper on their balance sheet and are forced to liquidate. I bet you that in a year or 2 bank will recognize gains on these papers.

Ambac: More Smoke and Mirrors?

CSW, I agree with you except that the ABX index is nothing else than ... an index, with no undelying asset. For me the big lie is that index is that it represents only investors mood. If you have big money, you can push it up or down and FORCE banks and insurance companies to make reserves that should not exist. This financial game went too far at the wrong time for sure