Piggybank

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Well i rather thought that there were copper mines who just didn't extract the tellerium that they otherwise could because they didn't find it interresting enough. But i'm not skilled enough to talk geoligy neither.

talked it over with others though, and there was one big argument i didn't mention yet, and this argument made a lot of sense with the "collegue's". namely that one of scale:

Fslr revenue's: roughly 200 million $
Fslr profit: roughly 62 million $

VNP revenue: roughly 8 million $
VNP profit: roughly 2 million $

It's like to say with te words of one collegue i would call "the ultimate hedgehog" that it's like comparing the Titanic with a tugboat, although in that fact titanic was a bit badly chosen allusion and we changed it to oil tanker and then we had a discussion as to what an iceberg could do to an oiltanker ... Anyway, it's kinda a drop in the bucket if you consider that from the 8 million $ VNP earns about 6 million $ comes from FSLR, and that aint all that much on a total cost of revenue of about 93 million $ for FSLR. And this is for the most recent quarter when Te had already risen as you noted. Consider that for sell/general/admin expenses FSLR had 3 million $ costs less than last quarter while having rising revenue, enough in that aspect alone to offset these rising Te prices.

consider then that still their raw material inventory's of both company's are rising. you might argue they are hoarding but then the Te price is a bit overprized now and and the hoarding has very few effect on their EBITDA.

this should IMO ultimatly schatter youre argument that "if tellurium price triple or quadruple from current price, it will be enough to kill FSLR as a business." Te seemingly already tripled and it didn't hurt FSLR by a bit, the difference is scale is just to big. For the tripling of Te's price VNP didn't realy ask much of a premium for it's CDTE. Sure it ask what, 1 million $ more from FSLR at the moment? There is still 60 million $ profit for FSLR to go trough. And this rough 1 million $ more paid to FSLR also includes most probably a larger volume of CDTE sold, afterall from the company's balance sheet one can see that their production assets have rizen in the last quarter, by a fair bit to.

The difference of scale is just to big. Atleast more than big enough to push this "issue" much further down the agenda in the future, it's hardly an issue now, you have been posting on this since januari and last FSLR's figure's didn't show anything of a problem in this regard. I doubt shorting FSLR for ths issue alone is a wise choice. Atleast not now.