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the_value_vulture

the_value_vulture
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  • Update: Theravance Reports Increased Patient Access And High Confidence In Dividend [View article]
    To put it in perspective this was a little over 1% of the position baupost trimmed. No heart attack necessary.
    Aug 14 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Theravance Reports Increased Patient Access And High Confidence In Dividend [View article]
    Actually showing about 310,000 share reduction.
    Aug 14 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Theravance After Pullback [View article]
    Dan,

    "But unfortunately I now worry that GSK might milk Advair a tad bit longer because express scripts just put it back on formulary"

    We'll have to see what happens. Just reading the CC but it seems like management understands that the tapering of Advair will continue. All I know is that this will be slow moving.
    Aug 6 11:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Theravance After Pullback [View article]
    Conom20,

    I see what you are saying but I believe urgency has lifted for GSK to start being a little more aggressive in its promotion of Thervance's drugs especially considering that Advair sales dropped 19%. Unfortunately I was unable to listen to the THRX conference call but here are tidbits from the GSK CC which makes me believe that management "gets it". I believe there is a method to their madness and its worth parsing through the transcripts.

    From GSK CC on July 23rd:

    Andrew Witty:

    "However, while Advair sales are now likely to continue to decline, we expect new respiratory products Breo, Anoro and Incruse to generate new sales growth. Already we are seeing some recovery in our overall respiratory volume share as new launches progress albeit at lower price points."

    From the QA

    "Having said all of that if you look at Breo in particular for the US we're seeing some very encouraging trends over this quarter actually .... But the signals for Breo look encouraging, we're now up to, I think when we last spoke we had something like a 1,000 prescriptions a week, we're now well over 5,000 prescriptions a week in terms of NRx, looking encouraging"

    "I've be having to answer the question about when would Advair go generic and what would we do after Advair? And when is that all going to happen? And that's a very big question everybody has had.

    My views on genericizaton of Advair haven't changed. They are exactly as they were the last time we spoke, no change on that. But what we are seeing is a product which is now 14 or 15 years old, is a very substantial product, market leading product coming under inevitable price pressure, competitive pressure. You know, worldwide, the environment has changed fundamentally, where there are more products in the marketplace, not least from ourselves.

    And so you are inevitably going to see the kind of pressure. Now that I think what that tells you finally is now is the moment to start thinking about what this group looks like post Advair. It's not about the generics, and about the patent expiration, it's about the TRANSITION that we're now engaged in where you're going to see a somewhat gentle, albeit probably continued downward pressure on Advair driven by this pricing competition offset by our ability to bring new products into the market."

    I believe THRX is one of those "long haul" investments where you'll have to look 2-4 years down the road. Personally sold out of the Biopharma.
    Aug 6 10:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Theravance's GSK Drugs Really Worth? [View article]
    Just an observation but it does not seem gsk has even begun to put serious ad dollars into anoro/breo. Marketing has been fairly muted. Anyone else witnessing this as well? Looks like gsk is trying to milk what it can from advair. Theravances drugs would surely cannibalize advair sales but it looks like gsk may start increasing marketing dollars soon to avoid losing market share.
    Jul 29 09:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Theravance's GSK Drugs Really Worth? [View article]
    August 6th
    Jul 29 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second largest American Apparel shareholder cashes out most of stake [View news story]
    Len,

    This is only a $10M loan. There will be some type of agreement between Lion and Standard. A permanent disagreement on the loan would put Lion's 24.5M of warrants in jeopardy when they are showing a gain of 5 million on Thursday's close. Lion doesn't strike me as this dumb

    I wouldn't say this is GGP 2.0 post bankruptcy, but material gains can be made on APP with the reworking of APP's capital structure and most importantly management changes that the company has been desperately needing for quite some time. Standard General sees the potential with the hedge fund now in the driver's seat.
    Jul 5 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck buys Idenix [View news story]
    ...and I sold 30% of my position on Friday to shore up a higher cash position.
    Jun 9 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS Technologies EPS of $0.36 [View news story]
    Continued support of bull thesis in chipmos.
    May 14 07:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk rallies as Street praises investor day; Micron also gains [View news story]
    Great gains on micron since the earnings report. While micron may have a ways to go, all the while imos is being completely ignored in the run up. The memory business is chipmo's business. Jared said it best...

    "Behind almost every good semiconductor company is an unknown back-end that does the hard work without getting the notoriety. "

    This hard working company is being severely undervalued for all the business they are likely acquiring as memory margin swells and the continued boom in pricing and quantity.
    May 8 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World shares hit by tech sell-off [View news story]
    "People should buy only when the pull-back is done ..."

    You heard it here first. Thanks Gerard! Sage advise. Be sure to let others know when it's over.
    Apr 7 06:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Micron Just Jump The Shark? [View article]
    Concerning the price action yesterday?

    A bunch of speculators were placing short term bets to capitalize on earnings followed by what sure seemed to be a beat. They beat but there were too many people on the same side of the boat with the same idea to sell down post earnings. There was NOTHING that I found glaringly upsetting about earnings or management comments which makes me think about turning tail. Followed by a plunge in the nasdaq Friday, MU was taken down with it and momentum players rushed for the exits. That about sums it up.

    To me, the fundamental story is still intact. This company continues to have many levers to pull with its large cash horde. One of those levers is a reduction in convertibles Q3. My view is that there will be a larger buyback announcement in 2H.

    Putting money where my mouth is and capitalizing on the "crazy", I've added to my January 2015 calls at the 25 strike by 75% on Friday.
    Apr 5 08:12 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron's 2014 Insider Trading: An Analysis [View article]
    Don't know if this tilts the scales any but Durcan also plans on selling 400,000 of those shares he exercised on 2/14 over the next 8 months starting after earnings. These shares were exercised when the stock was close to 25. In think he sees higher prices this year otherwise why didn't he sell them all when he could have?
    Mar 30 09:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updated Micron 2014 Estimates [View article]
    " That's why I buy the stock instead of the options."

    RSA, think it depends. I personally go after long dated options (Jan 2015 in this case) and have been pretty successful navigating the bumps and hiccups in other securities when things don't go my way immediately. If the fundamentals and business conditions keep progressing the way they have and a run rate of $3-4 EPS comes to fruition, it will be very hard to keep this stock in the 20's.

    If not by this next quarter, the market will likely "get it" in the second half.
    Mar 29 09:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Micron Technology [View article]
    I am a continued buyer as the stock sinks. This is a seagate/wdc 2.0 scenario with better industry dynamics and a tailwind of substantial growth prospects with one of the only three memory plays in town. I'm personally long a substantial position in shares and Jan 2015 calls.

    Realistically you can expect the market to continuing discount the story until they don't. The emotion that whipsaws the stock's pps lower is irrationality based off of selling stock because it's lower price and complete disregard of favorable industry dynamics. This is how you pick up bargains.
    Mar 26 06:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
157 Comments
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