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the_value_vulture

the_value_vulture
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  • World shares hit by tech sell-off [View news story]
    "People should buy only when the pull-back is done ..."

    You heard it here first. Thanks Gerard! Sage advise. Be sure to let others know when it's over.
    Apr 7 06:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Micron Just Jump The Shark? [View article]
    Concerning the price action yesterday?

    A bunch of speculators were placing short term bets to capitalize on earnings followed by what sure seemed to be a beat. They beat but there were too many people on the same side of the boat with the same idea to sell down post earnings. There was NOTHING that I found glaringly upsetting about earnings or management comments which makes me think about turning tail. Followed by a plunge in the nasdaq Friday, MU was taken down with it and momentum players rushed for the exits. That about sums it up.

    To me, the fundamental story is still intact. This company continues to have many levers to pull with its large cash horde. One of those levers is a reduction in convertibles Q3. My view is that there will be a larger buyback announcement in 2H.

    Putting money where my mouth is and capitalizing on the "crazy", I've added to my January 2015 calls at the 25 strike by 75% on Friday.
    Apr 5 08:12 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron's 2014 Insider Trading: An Analysis [View article]
    Don't know if this tilts the scales any but Durcan also plans on selling 400,000 of those shares he exercised on 2/14 over the next 8 months starting after earnings. These shares were exercised when the stock was close to 25. In think he sees higher prices this year otherwise why didn't he sell them all when he could have?
    Mar 30 09:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updated Micron 2014 Estimates [View article]
    " That's why I buy the stock instead of the options."

    RSA, think it depends. I personally go after long dated options (Jan 2015 in this case) and have been pretty successful navigating the bumps and hiccups in other securities when things don't go my way immediately. If the fundamentals and business conditions keep progressing the way they have and a run rate of $3-4 EPS comes to fruition, it will be very hard to keep this stock in the 20's.

    If not by this next quarter, the market will likely "get it" in the second half.
    Mar 29 09:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Micron Technology [View article]
    I am a continued buyer as the stock sinks. This is a seagate/wdc 2.0 scenario with better industry dynamics and a tailwind of substantial growth prospects with one of the only three memory plays in town. I'm personally long a substantial position in shares and Jan 2015 calls.

    Realistically you can expect the market to continuing discount the story until they don't. The emotion that whipsaws the stock's pps lower is irrationality based off of selling stock because it's lower price and complete disregard of favorable industry dynamics. This is how you pick up bargains.
    Mar 26 06:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech sell-off continues [View news story]
    Looks to me like babies are being thrown out with the bath water. Long idix and thrx.
    Mar 24 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears to spin off Lands' End in early April [View news story]
    I wouldn't quote overlook the lands end spinoff. Public sentiment seems to be that everyone is going to dump this. The imbalance may cause a nice price drop for a company that is profitable and a decent brand. I will likely be a buyer.
    Mar 16 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Idenix: Continues To Have Big Potential With Low Risk/High Reward [View article]
    Great article on possible future valuation prospects for Idenix. One of the pillars to any of my investment decisions in the equity space is who is involved? Over the past few quarters Klarman has increased Baupost's stake significantly in IDIX and filled one offering at $6.50 which isn't too far from the current price. Given his background in value investing and entering the biotech space which happens to be one of the most risky sectors, his decision to invest in over 35% of this company's stock carries significant weight and speaks of his confidence in IDIX.
    Mar 11 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Klarman raises alarm over asset prices, cites tech “nosebleed valuations” [View news story]
    The annual letters of each are pretty interesting and give some insight into their investment philosophy. I suggest that to be a great starting point. If you type any of these investors in a search you are likely to get more information as well. I've seen a few interviews from each that are quite entertaining.
    Mar 10 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Klarman raises alarm over asset prices, cites tech “nosebleed valuations” [View news story]
    "Some of these guys don't get it"

    I'd seriously suggest you take a look at klarman, watsa, marks, and their investment records and methodology. This mechanisms moving this market and the distortions our policy makers have created are causing severe damage to true price discovery.
    Mar 10 08:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Barron's writeup for MetLife [View news story]
    Cheap relative to the market isn't saying enough at these nosebleed valuations. Deals anywhere are sparse.
    Mar 8 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The ripple effect from Tesla's Gigafactory [View news story]
    "I read Tesla's sales at 2020 to be 800,000 to 1,000,000 cars."

    The financial community is baffled at how this stock has been bid to the stratosphere and its disconnect to Any reality. The answer lies here. The company's valuation is built on hope, dreams, and fantasy.

    Analysts and professional forecasters can't even get the numbers down on mature industries in a one year time span concerning sales predictions. We now have a 6 year prediction with a "Musk correction factor".

    Managed to scalp small profit on puts this week but the opportunity to short here is becoming greater as irrationality grows.
    Mar 1 04:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla now +3.2% AH. Gigafactory aims to supply 500K vehicles. [View news story]
    Absolutely no link to reality. This dance is going to grind to a halt. Long puts into the close. Just couldn't watch anymore.
    Feb 26 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher on Apple enthusiasm [View news story]
    What?!?! I cannot believe even the speculators are running with this bunch of nonsense. All this hot money has no real place to go.
    Feb 18 08:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney reports first positive comp since 2011 [View news story]
    I really wouldn't applaud a 2% increase. This does not bode well for a quick turnaround which this company desperately needs to stay alive.
    Feb 4 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
147 Comments
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