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the_value_vulture

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  • Jim Chanos warns on Macau [View news story]
    Chanos is top brass of the short selling world. While 2013 performance was terrible for him, he has some sound reasoning. Most of his moves to date have been based out of a slowdown in China especially in overinvestment around construction. This is really a matter of when, not if and Macau will DEFINITELY be affected.
    Oct 31 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Theravance Reports Third Quarter 2014 Financial Results [View article]
    Hey Penguin.

    Just FYI on what was said in the CC regarding GA costs.

    "General and administrative expenses for the third quarter of 2014 were $8.6 million compared to $6 million for the same period last year. This increase was mainly due to the recognition of higher stock compensation expense and employee related costs, outside services and one time costs, all mostly associated with the post spin-off transition activity. Total general and administrative stock-based compensation expenses for the third quarter of 2014 were $3.4 million compared with $1.9 million for the same period in 2013. Here also as of October 1, all personnel transition to Theravance Biopharma has been completed. We expect outside service spending to continue at the slightly higher rate into the early part of 2015 as we finalize new systems implementation and transition activity."
    Oct 31 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Theravance: 2 Hidden Catalysts Will Boost Sales [View article]
    From the CC transcript regarding an analyst comment on weak sales and what we should think about the q1 2015 dividend payout.

    Mike Aguiar:

    "Obviously we did quite a bit modeling before we initiated the dividend; we understand the commitment around that. ... So sitting here today, I would make two comments. One is we actually did model the dividend forecast on numbers that are lower than where we are today, so we took a pretty conservative view in terms of the overall forecast when we decided to initiate a dividend. ... And then number two based on where we are today, overall cash position and in particular looking at the catalysts coming forward for both products I think we are pretty comfortable."
    Oct 31 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What GSK's Q3 Results Mean For Theravance [View article]
    According to an 8-k yesterday it looks like GSK presented data at meeting in Austin Texas comparing Anoro vs Advair in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. The conclusion of the study was that Anoro improved lung function over Advair in this sample group.

    It seems that GSK is finally positioning Anoro and Breo to be the front running drugs in their respiratory arsenal.
    Oct 28 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What GSK's Q3 Results Mean For Theravance [View article]
    Thanks for your continued highlights on THRX developments. After listening to the call and reading the transcript, I received a similar message. Sales of Breo and Anoro will continue to be slow until the two drugs get more coverage and a crucial label expansion for Breo sometime in 2015. The drugs are gaining traction, yes, but it looks like sampling will continue to be very heavy and it's my guess probably through 1H of 2015 before starting to taper. GSK seemed a little more confident regarding some type of projection into their respiratory business in the near future.

    I still have questions regarding the "sales incentives" that continue to come into question. Citigroup brought it up this CC during Q&A while it was also brought up in THRX's most recent CC. Witty pretty much summed up the question by saying they would continue to press on with the same compensation structure. I do wonder if it has been a real issue because it's been brought up more than just once and even an article back in late July.

    From an investment standpoint, while I think there will be considerable success in this position it looks like I personally was a year too early. This is sounding more like a q4 2015 story with 2016 being a year with much more interest as sales really take hold. It should be treated more like an income stock for the time being with no expectations for capital appreciation until q4 2015 at the absolute earliest.
    Oct 24 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Why Theravance Jumped [View article]
    GSK will be reporting tomorrow. All eyes will be on Anoro/Breo sales.

    There was an interesting article out from Bloomberg around 11:30 today about Connelly and performace issues at Glaxo regarding drug sales in the US. It explained some of the issues but there are a few positives that stood out.

    http://bloom.bg/1tJn0oD

    “Establishing the two new drugs in the U.S. is “priority No. 1,” Connelly said.”
    “Analysts shouldn’t focus on total prescriptions but instead the number of new-to-brand prescriptions, said Connelly, which show how many physicians are prescribing to first-time patients. New prescriptions for the drugs “are very solid,” she said. “Every Friday, every Monday, I get data,” Connelly said. “What that is telling me as I look at that data is that progression for these products is solid.”

    “The biggest group of COPD patients, those over 65, are covered by Medicare, and more than 70 percent of the privately run Medicare prescription plans now cover Breo, up from 3 percent at the start of 2014, Connelly said.
    “I’m very pleased with where we are,” she said of Breo’s current sales.

    Negatives continue to include cost cuts on Breo, the drug's access issues especially with Express Scripts regarding pricing, proper sales incentives, and Glaxo hoping Breo is approved for asthma in US sometime next year.

    Definitely worth a read. I look forward to the Glaxo CC tomorrow for additonal commentary from management.
    Oct 21 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oversold conditions get worse [View news story]
    Selling is indiscriminate across all sectors. When fear and panic trump rationality, this is what the market looks like. My shopping cart is going up and down the aisles today.
    Oct 13 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced seeks to wind down sapphire manufacturing ops [View news story]
    GTAT is going to wind down the sapphire operations and you think the IPad and watch will have sapphire screens? Anyone trading GTAT around is just playing with worthless stock at this point.
    Oct 9 10:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS REPORTS SEPTEMBER 2014 REVENUE; 3Q14 REVENUE ABOVE HIGH-END OF GUIDANCE [View article]
    The collapse of the corporate structure is getting in the way of good performance being reflected in the share price. It's rather unfortunate for now but good for those that are still buying on dips (out of dry powder for me on this position).

    Coupled with excellent business prospects and some serious catalysts I'm sleeping well with Chipmos in my portfolio.
    Oct 9 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron -2.3% after Samsung announcement; SNDK, TSM also in focus [View news story]
    I cannot believe I got to play the January 2015 35 calls again! A 5% dip in the share price today because of supply that may or may not come online in 2017 because Samsung is trying to decide whether to go with memory or not?? Really??
    Oct 6 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced halted with news pending [View news story]
    My condolences for shareholders. Seriously didn't see this coming.
    Oct 6 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Deal: Deep Value In HC2 [View article]
    Hi Bradd,

    Thanks for highlighting this.

    “HC2 is now a public market security, so there is an arbitrage when one buys a private market business and then puts it into a public company holdco. This may even be the heart of Falcone's strategy for HC2.”

    This is one of the premises for my investment in HC2. Finding good value is still possible in this market (although becoming more difficult) but recent acquisitions of public companies are being done with little margin of safety or done at what are seemingly overpriced valuations. The private markets are where good deals can still be had as you pointed out. HC2 seems to be taking this direction and I believe the Jefferies connection can prove to be very beneficial in finding potential candidates as well as in the financing angle.

    What’s even more advantageous and unusual about this scenario is that Falcone, a successful veteran deal maker with a proven track record, is at the helm of this microcap holdco. Starting from such a small base, it's going to take a lot less to move the needle. You really can’t beat this for a start up.
    Oct 5 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Deal: Deep Value In HC2 [View article]
    "5. You already caught the error in not using a multiple on overhead, although I think 4x is too low a multiple. I believe Falcone will get a percentage of gains/earnings so overhead will likely grow faster than the businesses. "

    Hi Tim.

    FWIW According to the 2014 HC2 executive bonus plan in SEC filings I think the percentage you are referring to is derived from the Compensation NAV calc. It seems like it's up to 12% of any NAV increase above the 7% threshold from the beginning of the year til the end of the year.

    Still I'm a little confused. How is overhead likely to grow faster than the businesses? Can you explain that rationale?

    Thanks.
    Oct 4 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Deal: Deep Value In HC2 [View article]
    Bradd,

    In your previous article written in April you believed that HC2 would acquire assets from Harbinger Captial Partners as the fund looks to liquidate. Do you believe this to still be the case some point in the future or has the company moved in a different (and still potentially rewarding) direction?
    Oct 3 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Deal: Deep Value In HC2 [View article]
    Bradd,

    Excellent article and SOTP analysis on this little holding company. Really enjoyed reading it.
    Oct 2 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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