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the_value_vulture

the_value_vulture
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  • The New Deal: HC2 Thesis And Valuation Update [View article]
    Looks like after December 1st Falcone will officially be at HC2 full time. Anyone following this story though knows Falcone has been positioning for this move for quite some time with the flurry of deal making that has taken place in HC2 over the past 3-4 months.
    Nov 25, 2014. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Leucadia boosts stake in Harbinger as Falcone exits [View news story]
    Alright I’m having issues with something …

    Whopper has made some great calls in the past. ALJJ and USAK to name a few and Whopper will likely continue to pick some serious winners. Still in his pro article on HCHC a significant portion of his analysis of HCHC's worth was seriously flawed. He valued 116M of the NOL base that was supposedly not subject to limitation between 50-85M in three different value scenarios. These NOLs were in fact subject to limitation do to change of control factors that were listed in the company's most recent 10Q at the time. Back out the NOL asset and values come in much lower. SA members in the comment section pointed this out to the author but nothing was ever corrected or admitted by the author.

    The one who should be getting the nod from SA is Brad Kern from Armored Wolf who has been following this company and had his first article out back in March. What I admire most is that in his article Ready to Deal: Deep Value in HC2 when commenters pointed out an error in his share count for the article he corrected it in 4 days with a new article displaying the correction and updated his SOTP analysis. Hats off to Kern!
    Nov 25, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ALJ Regional Holdings: Building A Solid Holding Company, One Acquisition At A Time [View article]
    Whopper did an article a few months ago on ALJ and I put it in my “homework pile” and forgot about it. Big mistake it seems! Thanks for bringing it up again! This company seems to hold a lot of promise and is similar to another holding I have in many respects.

    Faneuil

    Call centers are a pretty tough cut throat business and usually low margin. 38% of business with one customer carries quite some risk as well. Hopefully they are making some inroads into expanding their customer mix in commercial as well as increasing the automation process in their operations. Not sure if the potential business growth is that robust though. I personally know an owner of a call/contact center business in the area that believes the future is pretty bleak for the industry in this country regardless of tech advances. He’s been at it for 40 years so I pay close attention. Regardless the cash flow from Faneuil should support buybacks and future acquisitions considering the NOL's shield income.

    Carpets n More

    The best way to gauge Carpet’s future business is to look at Vegas’ largest land owner, Howard Hughes Corporation. 3 of CM’s stores look like they are 5 to 15 miles away from Summerlin which is enjoying robust activity and has thousands of acres in store for development. Here is just a small tid bit of what is in store for 2015. There’s going to be a need for plenty of flooring with CM to at least capture some of those orders.

    From HHC’s recent 10-Q

    “Homebuilder demand for land in Summerlin continues to remain strong and Summerlin’s strategy is to manage the development and delivery of residential parcels for sale in order to increase the long-term value of the project. … Homebuilders continue to work toward bringing new neighborhoods online in 2014, which we believe will begin to increase the volume of home sales in the latter part of 2014 continuing into 2015.”

    “During the second quarter 2014, we announced a joint venture with Discovery Land Company, a leading developer of private clubs and luxury communities, to develop an exclusive luxury community on approximately 550 acres of land within the Summerlin MPC. … development is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2015 with the first lot and home sales expected to begin in late 2015.”
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Deal: HC2 Thesis And Valuation Update [View article]
    Bradd,

    Thanks again for your valuation update. It's greatly appreciated. One bit of news that stood out to me and was truly important in my eyes was the information regarding the bid for Hirschfield. I've always found that observing what management is NOT doing is just as important as what they ARE doing.

    To me, the fact that HC2 wasn't willing to raise their bid to go to the 2nd round was a testament to the deals that they are willing to swing at. Will they miss out on some opportunities? Yes, quite likely. But odds of overpaying for a business diminish significantly if they follow a disciplined approach to acquisition. That's a huge plus in my book and crucial in this stage of the company's development.

    I continue to be very impressed with the potential of HC2 and their savvy deal making.
    Nov 18, 2014. 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology Announces Chief Financial Officer Ronald C. Foster to Retire in 2015 [View article]
    That's some welcoming news only after collecting millions for some terribly disastrous financing via convertibles and their dilutional effects. Good riddance Ron.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS +4.4% AH after Q3 beat; $15M buyback launched [View news story]
    SJ and SK seem to be great operators but capital allocation isn't their forte. They need to either read up on true shareholder value creation or get the proper counsel from someone that knows what they are doing. While a buyback is a good step, I was expecting at least 50MM if no conversion was announced. Coupled with my position on THRX I'm getting beat up on multiple fronts here!
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS REPORTS OCTOBER 2014 REVENUE [View article]
    Great results. Business continues to be stellar.
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel +16.5% after Q3 beat, guidance, CEO announcement [View news story]
    Looks like a possible home run for hc2 (hchc) if mifi is successful at its turnaround.
    Nov 7, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears mulling REIT for 200-300 stores; up 16% premarket [View news story]
    Many of their prime locations are in huge demand. GGP would GLADLY pay top dollar for assets in their A-Class malls. Sandeep (GGP CEO) has been essentially saying it for a few years. Then return the sale proceeds to shareholders to increase value rather than throw it down the tubes on shopyourway and other failed attempts to "revive" the retail business.

    Pride is more important I guess for Eddie.
    Nov 7, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: GSK Starts Promoting Theravance Drugs More Actively [View article]
    Ian,

    P&G brought up a similar comment about tactics by GSK to acquire THRX on the cheap. I have thought of GSK possibly doing the same as well. Here's why I believe its not going to happen.

    1) Advair sales are tanking. You will see in the transcripts GSK fully expects a continued retraction in advair going forward through 2015. With GROWTH of the respiratory market in 2016. They cannot grow it without success of Anoro Breo.

    2) Analysts as well as the investment community are already on edge with GSK management. Between the "fuzzy" sales strategy and the scandals for bribing in China and possibly elsewhere, I view management on a short leash concerning credibility. Continued anemic sales growth at the expense of choking off THRX strategically to acquire it cheap would really sink GSK and likely cause a few heads to roll in the management suites.

    3) The CHEST 2014 data in the 8-ks prove that GSK is clearly positioning Breo and Anoro as Advair replacements. As indicated the Advair profit stream is contracting significantly. They need THRX's drugs to succeed both in volume and on the bottom line to boost their critical respiratory portfolio.
    Nov 5, 2014. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: GSK Starts Promoting Theravance Drugs More Actively [View article]
    I guess GSK bought another 832,456 shares. Not if the market really cares though.
    Nov 4, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    I won't really comment beyond the fact that shares of ARCP officially moved into full blown panic circa 2009 selling mentality mode. This is where serious money is made. Personally threw more money in the ring.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: GSK Starts Promoting Theravance Drugs More Actively [View article]
    Er, you probably have the most thorough understanding of thrx/tbph of seeking alpha contributors. The fact that you have more confidence than ever on this current sell off being more of a blip rather than permanent issue is indeed meaningful.

    Thanks again for the update.
    Nov 1, 2014. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Thanks for the short little snippet on why you bought ARCP.

    I personally keep a cash balance in my accounts specifically for "special situations". There is a beauty about buying emotionally fear driven securities. You can get them at great discounts as even the smartest and most talented are overcome by the selling and sell themselves regardless of the fundamental story. After reading the transcripts of the latest conference call and viewing this situation with some sense of rationality I've taken a position. I thought my buy of semis hitting the irrationality skids after the MCHP "doom and gloom" announcement was good. I view the ARCP position as an even better opportunity at this price point.
    Nov 1, 2014. 09:32 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos warns on Macau [View news story]
    Chanos is top brass of the short selling world. While 2013 performance was terrible for him, he has some sound reasoning. Most of his moves to date have been based out of a slowdown in China especially in overinvestment around construction. This is really a matter of when, not if and Macau will DEFINITELY be affected.
    Oct 31, 2014. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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